Today's Fantasy Rx

2007 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

We firmly believe that the Rule 5 draft is a great chance to add depth to a major league roster by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill secondary roles, such as backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder. Organizations also should target pitchers who spent 2007 no lower than A+, then slot the youngsters in long relief, as lefty specialists, or perhaps in middle relief if the pitcher's performance warrants. Selecting reasonably high-upside prospects adds even more value to such picks. Given our preference, if we were drafting, for selecting one backup position player and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw, only the Padres truly took more than minimal advantage of the Rule 5 draft this year.

Round One

1. Tampa Bay: Tim Lahey, RH Reliever, MIN; 25, B:R, T:R.
Sold to Chicago Cubs.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 33%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: Given the Cubs' propensity for shuffling relievers, Lahey appears a particularly poor fit. None of his 2007 stats suggest particular upside, so even if he breaks camp with the team, Lahey appears unlikely to remain with Chicago for all of 2008.

2. Pittsburgh: Evan Meek, RH Reliever, TB; 24, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Meek's first full year as both a reliever and pitching above A-ball resulted in a 9.3 K/9, the best mark of his career. While he allowed far too many baserunners, the combination of his strikeout rate and a .3 HR/9 gives him more upside than many otherwise similar pitchers. He could emerge as a useful addition to the Pirates, albeit not in a role giving him more than miniscule fantasy value.

3. Baltimore: Randor Bierd, RH Reliever, DET; 24, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: High on everyone's list of Rule 5 sleepers, Bierd blossomed in his first full season as a professional, striking out well above a batter per inning while maintaining walk, hit, and homer marks far below normal even after a double-promotion to AA Erie. Nothing here indicates he should not remain relatively successful in the majors, and given the Orioles' desperation for quality young relievers, he looks like a perfect fit for Baltimore. Do not be surprised if he emerges as reliable fantasy roster filler by mid-season.

4. San Francisco: Jose M. Capellan, LH Starter, BOS; 21, B:L, T:L.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Although Capellan enjoyed an impressive campaign for short-season Lowell, his somewhat elevated hit rates over the last two years make him unlikely to succeed in the majors if he skips all four levels of full-season ball. The Giants may give him a roster spot given their obvious need to supplement their farm system, but Capellan's immediate impact should be very limited.

5. Florida: Carlos Guevara, RH Reliever, CIN; 25, B:R, T:R.
Sold to San Diego.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: The first of San Diego's three Rule 5 picks, Guevara offers the Padres their best chance to replicate the success they found with Kevin Cameron. However, Guevara's upside appears much higher, and the Reds' decision to abandon him at Double-A the last two years makes little sense. His career strikeout rate exceeds 11.6 K/9, and though he walks a few too many batters, he allows less than a homer a month. Guevara appears a better bet to post positive roto value than any other 2007 Rule 5 pick. Don't roster him immediately in any save very deep sim leagues, but definitely keep him on your radar for when you need pitching reinforcements.

6. Cincinnati: Sergio Valenzuela, RH Reliever, ATL; 23, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 1%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: Strong starting reports clearly prompted this selection as Valenzuela pitched quite poorly in A-ball this year, finishing 2007 with a combined 7.00 ERA in 72 IP. With weak skill rates across the board, he probably ranks as the worst selection in this year's draft. The Reds definitely erred in preferring the open roster slot used to draft Valenzuela over just protecting Carlos Guevara in the first place.

7. Washington: Matt Whitney, 3B, CLE; 23, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Cleveland's 2002 first rounder still hasn't advanced to Double-A, and while he continues to demonstrate both intriguing power and plate discipline, concerns regarding his projectability limited his value to the Indians. He doesn't fit much better with the Nationals, who should slot Ryan Zimmerman at third base for the next decade, but Whitney at least could develop into a decent utilityman. He looks like a high-risk, high-upside acquisition, albeit one best suited for a team desperate for infield help like the Giants.

8. Houston: Wesley Wright, LH Reliever, LAD; 22, B:R T:L.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 30%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: The Astros dispersed more quality talent than any other organization this winter while receiving scant few players in return. Wright may help compensate for some of the losses, especially on the pitching side, however his past control issues could cause problems for him in the majors. Fortunately for Wright, by debuting in the majors in a very limited role, he could at least prove a competent replacement for Houston's depleted bullpen.

9. Oakland: Fernando Hernandez, RH Reliever, CHW; 23, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Perhaps the most surprising player available in the draft given Chicago's preference for young pitchers, Hernandez appears a perfect for Oakland. He compiled an 84:23 K:BB in 85.1 IP with 73 H, 4 HR, and a 3.06 ERA for AA Birmingham(SL), statistics that rival anyone selected in this draft. With the Athletics clearly reloading with an eye on the future, Hernandez should claim no less than a regular job in the middle innings while potentially developing into a long-term late-inning option. Consider him a relatively decent option for fantasy filler if he doesn't disappoint in the early weeks of the season.

10. St. Louis: Brian Barton, OF, CLE; 25, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Fourth outfielder and platoon starter.
Fantasy Potential: The Jim Edmonds' trade clears the Cardinals' outfield for three left-hander starters: Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, and top prospect Colby Rasmus. Barton, who possesses five respectable tools and the smarts of a former Boeing intern, superbly complements that trio while offering more upside than likely fellow backup Ryan Ludwick. Considering that Barton also hit .314/.416/.440 in 389 AB for AA Akron(EL) this summer and even added twenty steals to his stat line, he should contribute both respectable qualitative and quantitative numbers. Barton at least should start against most southpaws, making him an excellent late-round pick in any standard league, especially since he just might emerge as a starter with both Duncan and Ankiel supposedly available for the right pitcher.

11. Toronto: Randy Wells, RH Reliever, CHC; 25, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: Although the Jays actually assembled a surprisingly solid staff by year's end, Wells certainly could earn a roster spot in 2008 following his shift to the bullpen, which added needed dominance to his repertoire. He still allows too many baserunners and probably will struggle in the American League, but the gamble seems solid for Toronto. Unfortunately, Wells just doesn't look likely to emerge as a viable fantasy option at this time.

12. Seattle: R.A. Dickey, RH Swingman, MIN; 33, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: The veteran knuckleballer failed to reach the majors for the first time since 2002, though he managed very respectable numbers for AAA Nashville(PCL), compiling a 13-6 record and a 3.72 ERA on a 119:60 K:BB in 169.1 IP. Though I don't understand why Seattle didn't just sign him to a major league deal in October, he offers the Mariners a needed inning-eater to spare their young pitchers from overwork. Pitching in Safeco at least should allow Dickey to post the best stats of his career, albeit not to a level that merits much fantasy consideration.

13. New York Mets: Steven Register, RH Reliever, COL; 24, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: While the Mets' bullpen emerged as the club's most serious weakness in 2007, Register seems an unlikely candidate to upgrade the relief corps. Auburn's former closer spent two-and-a-half seasons starting in the Rockies' system before returning to the bullpen and saving thirty-seven games for AA Tulsa(TL) this summer. However, he didn't demonstrate particularly impressive dominance, and given New York's historical reluctance to give their Rule 5 picks a real chance to make the team, don't expect to see Register in a Mets' uniform any time soon.

14. San Diego: Michael Gardner, RH Reliever, NYY; 26, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Lost among the cadre of impressive pitching prospects at AA Trenton this summer, Gardner's selection here merely places him in the shadow of fellow Rule 5 pick Carlos Guevara in San Diego. The Padres appear quite unlikely to keep two Rule 5 pitchers, and given Guevara's far higher upside, Gardner also offers far less upside than 2006 Rule 5 pick Kevin Cameron, already established in San Diego. With around a dozen far more experienced pitchers also prepared to claim jobs in PETCO, Gardner should head back to the Yankees unless someone else claims him off waivers at the end of spring training.

15. Philadelphia: Travis Blackley, LH Starter, SF; 25, B:L, T:L.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 30%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: The Australian never received a fair chance from either the Mariners or Giants, and although he therefore seems a far more questionable choice for a club playing home games in CB Park, Blackley possesses the raw skills necessary to succeed in the majors. An overdue move to relief could pay welcome dividends for both Blackley and Philadelphia. Although I don't envision him earning positive fantasy value in 2008, he could contribute to another Phillies' playoff run.

Round Two

1. Washington: Garrett Guzman, OF, MIN; 24, B:L, T:L.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Even non-tendering Nook Logan shouldn't clear a roster spot for Guzman on a club already set with Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Elijah Dukes, Rob Mackowiak, Willie Harris, Ryan Langerhans, and Justin Maxwell competing for outfield and bench jobs. While Guzman posted a decent little campaign in 2007, registering a .312/.359/.453 performance in 475 AB for AA New Britain(EL), he lacks an overt upside and therefore shouldn't catch the eye of either Jim Bowden or Manny Acta in spring training. Guzman doesn't even appear capable of contributing that much even if he somehow survives every roster cut, so don't target him anywhere in 2008.

2. San Diego: Callix Crabbe, 2B/IF, MIL; 24, B:S, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder.
Fantasy Potential: The 5'8" second baseman somehow posted his best offensive season since Rookie-ball in his first shot at AAA, compiling a .287/.377/.435 while demonstrating impressive plate discipline and even a little speed. Unless the Padres sign a veteran infielder, Crabbe only will need to beat out journeymen like Oscar Robles and Craig Stansberry, a reasonable bet given the skills he brings to the table. Of course, Crabbe also appears quite unlikely to contribute anything worthwhile to fantasy teams beyond sporadic value as short-term roster filler if he somehow maintains a decent BA.

3. Philadelphia: Lincoln Holdzkom, RH Reliever, BOS; 25, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Selected in last year's Rule 5 draft by the Astros from the Cubs, Holdzkom instead migrated to Boston, where he pitched effectively despite compiling an awful 44:44 K:BB in 63.2 IP split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket. Given his command issues and the negligible margin for error provided for Phillies' pitchers, Holdzkom shouldn't maintain his effectiveness in the majors even if a good camp earns him a big league job. Don't risk rostering him anywhere in 2008.

I'll continue tomorrow with the minor league phase of the 2007 Rule 5 draft.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The second Rule 5 draft under the new CBA rules resulted in another eighteen players drafted, only one short of last year's mark. More teams also appear likely to give their new additions an extended look after the success enjoyed by several of last year's picks, including Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, Jesus Flores, Jared Burton, Jason Smith, Kevin Cameron, Jay Marshall, Josh Phelps, and Levale Speigner. The first four of these guys look like the prizes of last year's draft, with Soria now closing in Kansas City, Hamilton seemingly recovered from his past problems and now the Rangers' centerfielder, Flores within a year of claiming Washington's catching job, and Burton one of the Reds' only reliable late-inning options. Of course, Kevin Cameron possibly posted the best numbers of anyone listed here, but the nearly fifty percent success rate of Rule 5 picks effectively sets a new standard.

Unfortunately, this year's class seemingly lacks the immediate upside of last year's draftees. Brian Barton likely will see plenty of time with the Cardinals after the Indians ignored him all year. Fernando Hernandez, Randor Bierd, and Carlos Guevara all should claim bullpen jobs, Matt Whitney and Calix Crabbe might earn bench jobs, and R.A. Dickey almost certainly will spend the summer with Seattle. However, the combined value of all these players might fail to meet the 2007 return from Joakim Soria or Josh Hamilton alone. Unless you can draft Barton on the cheap, don't go prospecting for fantasy sleepers among 2007 Rule 5 selections during your draft.