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July 28th 2007 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Our Philosophy |
by Tim Polko Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 25th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.
abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(5514445455) Corpas looks like the hottest reliever in baseball right now and might not relinquish the Colorado closer's job this decade. However, aside from Corpas and a couple of other guys like Cordero, NL pitchers largely struggled this week, as evidenced by the departures of Yovani Gallardo, Saul Rivera, and long-time first-rank starter Ian Snell. No pitcher joined the top rank in either league this week for the first time since April.
Rebuilding teams need to take a serious look at Adam Wainwright, who has been on fire since May and pitching as well this month as any NL starter. With a full year as a starter under his belt, he easily could emerge as a breakout #2 pitcher in 2008.
3Cabcyz - Aaron Heilman(5523534455) While his WHIP still mildly concerns me, Feliciano's high skill level makes him a good target for anyone seeking low-risk roster filler.
Monkeying around the edges of potential Willis trades for the last two years while waiting for an offer surpassing the Indians' haul for Bartolo Colon probably cost the Marlins a chance to completely rebuild the franchise. Right now no sane GM would offer a package of Davy Jones, Micky Dolenz, Peter Tork, and Michael Nesmith, forget about rumors involving Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and pitching. Willis not only barely belongs in a big league rotation, he still ranks as an obvious injury risk, making any bargain for him at this time extremely foolhardy.
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(4433355444)
Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443) Myers quietly returned to the Phillies' bullpen yesterday and should resume closing duties immediately. Don't be surprised if he tallies over a dozen more saves by year's end.
While the Giants reportedly intend to audition Brad Hennessey and Randy Messenger as future closers for the next two months, only Hennessey's relatively low strikeout rate portends any difficulty for him in fending off the challenge. He still looks like the best for the vast majority of San Francisco save opportunities, both for the rest of 2007 and quite likely also in 2008.
cxyz - Mike Wuertz(4144344353)
xz - David Weathers(3424321435)
Shawn Chacon(4452315543)
Ryan Speier(441)
QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
Three deals involving current and future Devil Rays' relievers all involve NL teams as Tampa shipped Ty Wigginton to Houston for Dan Wheeler, Seth McClung to Milwaukee for Grant Balfour, and Jorge Cantu and Shaun Cumberland to Cincinnati for Brian Shackelford and Calvin Medlock. Yes, the club undersold Cantu, but Shackelford fills and immediate need, and Medlock at least offers some future promise. Cantu will head to Triple-A and only will join the majors before September in case of injury or a trade that opens an infield slot, though given the rebirth of guys like Brandon Phillips and Josh Hamilton in Cincy, definitely monitor Cantu's progress in the NL. The Wigginton-Wheeler deal at least makes sense for Tampa, providing the Rays a superb set-up man and alternative closer if someone offers a good package for Al Reyes. Conversely, Wigginton looks like an awful fit for the Astros, though he could surprise. Morgan Ensberg owners qualify as the big losers here since Wigginton will receive most of his playing time at third base, which still doesn't make him worth a full-boat FAAB bid in most NL leagues. Tampa's trade of McClung for Balfour has the least immediate fantasy impact since Balfour appears slotted in middle relief and McClung remains stuck at Triple-A, though McClung certainly possesses the tools necessary to emerge as a potential successor to pending free agent Francisco Cordero in Milwaukee. The Brewers' acquisition of Scott Linebrink for Will Inman, Joe Thatcher, and Steve Garrison looks just as intriguing since Milwaukee also should receive a couple of draft picks when Linebrink departs as a free agent this winter. Bargaining away Inman still seems too high a price, especially since he could flourish in San Diego, but simply exchanging prospects for immediate help is a positive step for a franchise seeking its first winning season since Billy Ray Cyrus was better known for his mullet than fathering Disney Channel's top star. On the Padres' side of the ledger, Thatcher immediately replaces Linebrink, providing a needed lefty in the bullpen, while Inman and Garrison fill gaps in the upper minors. More importantly, a quieter swap of Leo Rosales to Arizona liberates Scott Hairston, who could receive an extended audition next summer if Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron depart as free agents. Hairston, who turned 27 in the spring, still owns an intriguing skill set, though he probably won't prospect in the pitchers' paradise at PETCO. More importantly, the trade clears a slot for Carlos Quentin to return to the Diamondbacks, so definitely look to grab him if he somehow landed on your NL waiver wire after his demotion earlier this month.
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