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July
14th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 15

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 9th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(45444)
ABCZ - Derek Lowe(55342)
ABX - Brad Penny(55440)
A - Ian Snell(45243)
Aaron Harang(24234)

abcxz - Heath Bell(5335324443)
abxy - Takashi Saito(4553543554)
ay - Saul Rivera(4053234445)
ay - Manuel Corpas(2152424545)

The additions of Saito and Corpas qualify as the only major changes here as the first half concluded. All these guys look like solid options in most leagues right now, even Corpas, who appears likely to receive most of Colorado's save opportunities over the next few weeks and might just emerge as the long-term closer.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(32345)
3ABXY - John Smoltz(44343)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
BCXYZ - Brandon Webb(33335)
by - Adam Wainwright(33343)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(0455455343)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(3552242552)
abcyz - Bob Wickman(4454412434)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(4554425355)
abxy - Cla Meredith(5255532045)
a - Doug Brocail(3444412443)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(40503)
Zach Duke(33320)

abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3344433355)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4234405533)
cx - Ryan Madson(5244313235)


A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(33441)
BX - David Bush(04354)
CX - Randy Johnson(44340)
X - Wandy Rodriguez(44344)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Ted Lilly(33444)
X - Justin Germano(55500)
X - Jeff Francis(25324)
John Maine(04444)
Tim Hudson(43550)
Chris Young(30444)
Jason Marquis(43350)
Mark Hendrickson(33044)
Sean Marshall(40303)
Rich Hill(30302)

Maine and Young probably merit the most attention here, though solid recent work from Bush, Rodriguez, and Lilly suggests that this trio also offers plenty of upside. Bush in particular might be available cheaply given his awful start to the season.


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(33342)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
C - Carlos Zambrano(35433)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(33040)
Cole Hamels(34033)
Josh Johnson(0005)

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(2255443411)


C
Z - Paul Maholm(43444)
c - Matt Belisle(23320)
Barry Zito(40240)
Jon Lieber(31521)
Doug Davis(30233)


X
bcyz - Brad Thompson(30443)
Jason Jennings(03343)
Kyle Kendrick(53133)
Russ Ortiz(34330)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(334232401)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(3242355455)


a
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3544445514)
bcxyz - Jose Valverde(3254455452)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(4553451244)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(4412344233)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(5544444132)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(4455242225)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(5234324345)
cxy - Russ Springer(3454535554)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(5544254433)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(3445534533)
bc - John Grabow(0202452555)
bx - Damaso Marte(4443225543)
bx - Royce Ring(4554333334)
by - Jorge Julio(5434452324)
cx - Randy Flores(1443333444)
cz - Rudy Seanez(2423425545)
xz - Guillermo Mota(3435343354)
x - Yoel Hernandez(4541554414)
x - Justin Miller(4433443544)
x - LaTroy Hawkins(4445423354)
x - Carlos Marmol(4424544523)
x - Kirk Saarloos(4044434524)
x - Armando Benitez(4435410544)
x - Taylor Buchholz(5543344335)
x - Matt Wise(4345354342)
x - Kevin Cameron(4524344334)
x - Jared Burton(3454542530)
x - Mike Zagurski(3405354414)
x - Brad Hennessey(4334443423)
x - Oscar Villarreal(1243444342)
x - Rafael Soriano(3035305354)
x - Tyler Yates(3334432542)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(3444232335)
x - Joe Smith(4450343103)
y - Joe Beimel(4440553304)
y - Juan Cruz(2244443245)
y - J.C. Romero(0243354443)
y - Micah Bowie(5435241303)
z - Jeremy Affeldt(1455353455)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
Jon Rauch(4344524435)
Kelvin Jimenez(4443544411)
Brian Moehler(3544234442)
Jonathan Sanchez(3242344444)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Antonio Alfonseca(4534224322)

Somehow Justin Miller seems to claim an even bigger role in the Marlins' bullpen every week, though with Kevin Gregg and Armando Benitez set in the late innings, Miller possesses little fantasy value outside of sim leagues.


b
Kyle Lohse(40133)

cxyz - Mike Wuertz(4333344144)
cyz - Will Ohman(2354534334)
xyz - Bob Howry(4343332543)
xyz - Chad Cordero(3251445323)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(4351445223)
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
xy - Peter Moylan(3334413445)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Matt Capps(2315535344)
x - Tyler Johnson(1355402334)
y - Brett Tomko(3323514234)
y - Salomon Torres(3335242430)
y - Gary Majewski(4432332040)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
z - Eddie Guardado
Renyel Pinto(5423535433)
Todd Coffey(0454235240)
Geoff Geary(3430341421)
Taylor Tankersley(4030125502)
Josh Sharpless(222332)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Braden Looper(31042)
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(3333243342)
z - Brandon Medders(3442253431)
z - Jonah Bayliss(1033534233)
Blaine Boyer(45452)
Scott Eyre(2253533234)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Jose Mesa(5433243202)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Chad Billingsley(0043)

y - Clay Condrey(4130413344)
Brian Shouse(3344340444)
Shawn Chacon(3343444523)
Ryan Franklin(3344334542)
Ramon Ramirez(3540355431)
Tony Pena(3433344314)
Brad Salmon(5141335334)
Matt Lindstrom(5334233402)


u
Chad Paronto(5344234533)
Vinnie Chulk(3345254433)
Brandon Lyon(3544234225)
Trever Miller(0244234255)
Joey Devine(44)
Fabio Castro(30034)


z
Jay Bergmann(34002)

Ryan Speier(441)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Owners looking to replace the demoted Carlos Quentin first should see if Lastings Milledge somehow remains available in your league. The Mets' former top prospect and newly-anointed starting left fielder finally appears prepared to take advantage of this opportunity, and given Moises Alou's continue injury issues, Milledge only needs one impressive hot streak in the near future to solidify a long-term role in New York's outfield.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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