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July
2nd
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 Pitching: AL Summer Prospects

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Baltimore: James Johnson, 23, RH Starter
0-0 on a 1:2 K:BB in 2 IP over 1 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, a 3-2 G-F, and a 9.00 ERA.
4-7 on an 67:29 K:BB in 86.1 IP over 15 GS(26G)
with 90 H, 8 HR, a 1.60 G-F, and a 3.44 ERA for AAA Norfolk(IL).

While Garrett Olson will receive first crack at replacing Steve Trachsel in Baltimore's rotation, Johnson appears prepared to challenge for a starting slot as soon as the second half. Though he no longer seems like the budding ace from 2005, his solid work in the upper minors suggests he could continue developing under Leo Mazzone's tutelage. I see sufficient upside here to recommend you target Johnson upon his return to the Orioles.


Boston: Clay Buchholz, 22, RH Starter
7-2 on a 116:22 K:BB in 86.2 IP over 15 GS(16G)
with 55 H, 4 HR, a .95 G-F, and a 1.77 ERA for AA Portland(EL).

Seemingly on his way to Triple-A in the near future if not the Boston bullpen, Buchholz probably ranks as the best pitching prospect in the minors. After thrashing the Sally League last summer and impressing during three High-A starts, he truly blossomed this spring in the Eastern League, demonstrating outstanding strikeout, walk, hit, and homer rates. The Red Sox almost surely will keep Buchholz given his potential to emerge as a third #1 starter alongside Beckett and Dice-K, so if you see a chance to add the youngster to your team, acquire Buchholz now before he reaches the majors in the second half.


Chicago White Sox: Charlie Haeger, 23, RH Starter
4-11 on a 92:57 K:BB in 101 IP over 17 GS
with 100 H, 10 HR, a .75 G-F, and a 4.81 ERA for AAA Charlotte(IL).

The continued cycling of relievers on the South Side of Chicago soon should result in an opportunity for the young knuckleballer, whose services could be particularly valuable if Kenny Williams embarks on a youth movement in the rotation that requires a capable inning eater out of the bullpen. Haeger even could receive a few starts depending on how the rest of the roster develops, but given his high WHIP, I see little reason to trust him on anything less than a team in the middle of a complete rebuilding project. You generally should wait until Haeger's consistency improves before adding him anywhere.


Cleveland: Jensen Lewis, 23, RH Reliever
1-0 and 1 Save on a 12:4 K:BB in 13 IP over 10 G
with 5 H, 1 HR, a .50 G-F, and a 1.38 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).
2-0 and 1 Save on a 49:13 K:BB in 39 IP over 24 G
with 27 H, 2 HR, a .92 G-F, and a 1.85 ERA for AA Akron(EL).

Roberto Hernandez's release places at least one spot in Cleveland's bullpen up for grabs, and given the work of Lewis this spring, he appears set to earn a shot in the near future. However, with Joe Borowski, Rafael Betancourt, Aaron Fultz, Tom Mastny, and Rafael Perez all firmly established on the Indians, along with Fernando Cabrera, who's out of options, Cleveland appears more likely to cycle through a few pitchers this summer, particularly since the club needs to find a solid long reliever. Wait until Lewis begins receiving regular duty in the sixth or seventh inning before even considering him as roster filler.


Detroit: Jair Jurrjens, 21, RH Starter
4-3 on an 64:23 K:BB in 80.2 IP over 14 GS
with 95 H, 3 HR, a 1.37 G-F, and a 3.35 ERA for AA Erie(EL).

Generally considered the top Tigers' pitching prospect following the promotion of Andrew Miller and trade of Humberto Sanchez, Jurrjens continues to perform effectively this season against older, more advanced competition. Though Detroit likely will keep him in the minors as long as possible, his solid control suggests he likely won't struggle if promoted ahead of schedule. As Jurrjens' future looks quite bright, he remains a decent target for any club looking toward the future.


Kansas City: Leo Nunez, 23, RH Starter
0-1 on a 9:2 K:BB in 11 IP over 2 GS
with 8 H, 2 HR, a 1.48 G-F, and a 3.27 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).
1-0 on a 13:6 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 10 H, 1 HR, a 1.17 G-F, and a 0.87 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).

After missing the first two months of the season with a broken right wrist and nearly heading to Oakland two weeks ago for Milton Bradley, Nunez instead appears settled at Omaha and soon should join the Royals' rotation. His return to starting this summer looks like a wise move by the Kansas City brass, and though he still qualifies as a high-risk pitcher, Nunez also offers more upside than almost any other starter likely to extended action in Kauffman Stadium in 2007. The problem is that his previous longball tendency could resurface, so unless you don't mind absorbing a qualitative disaster or two each month, ignore Nunez until he develops into a more consistent performer.


Los Angeles Angels: Chris Resop, 24, RH Reliever
1-3 on a 39:16 K:BB in 45.1 IP over 27 G
with 50 H, 4 HR, a .82 G-F, and a 4.57 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

Acquired over the winter from Florida for current Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg, Resop will join the Angels tomorrow following the club's decision to DFA Hector Carrasco. If he impresses in his initial outings, he could hold a middle relief job for the rest of the summer. Unfortunately, with Scot Shields and Justin Speier providing superb work in set-up roles, Resop's only fantasy value in 2007 will stem from the occasional vultured win, rendering him little more than potential roster filler in the foreseeable future.


We'll continue tomorrow with more American League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Buchholz easily outclasses every else discussed today, as well as practically every other pitcher in the minors. However, with everyone's attention drawn to the future Fenway star, James Johnson looks like a giant sleeper in comparison. He also should claim a rotation spot by this fall, and with far less competition and pressure in Baltimore, could emerge as a fantasy force even faster than Buchholz.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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