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June
30th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 13

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 27th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(42454)
ABCZ - Derek Lowe(44553)
A - Ian Snell(45452)
Aaron Harang(35242)

abcxz - Heath Bell(4334533532)
acxz - Jason Isringhausen(5145344553)
ax - Brad Hennessey(5532433444)
x - Tony Pena(3534323433)

Another bad week for NL pitchers results in Webb, Smoltz, Penny, and Rauch all departing the top spot with only Lowe and Hennessey to replace them. At least Peavy appears as solid as ever, a claim that can't be shared by Snell or Harang given their increasing inconsistency.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(42432)
3ABXY - John Smoltz(04434)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
BCXYZ - Brandon Webb(44333)
by - Adam Wainwright(42333)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4434045545)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(4254243552)
abcxyz - Bob Wickman(5423344544)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(3523345544)
abxy - Cla Meredith(3533552555)
a - Doug Brocail(2344441244)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(23405)
Zach Duke(33332)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4334542344)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3435334443)
cx - Ryan Madson(3443552443)


A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(43334)
BC - Carlos Zambrano(35354)
BX - Brad Penny(35554)
CX - Randy Johnson(44434)
B - Cole Hamels(32340)
X - Justin Germano(43555)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Sean Marshall(45403)
X - Jeff Francis(54253)
X - Wandy Rodriguez(42443)
X - Tim Hudson(30435)
X - Ted Lilly(10334)
X - Jason Marquis(20433)
John Maine(44044)
Rich Hill(44303)
Orlando Hernandez(33205)


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(35333)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
X - David Bush(53043)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(03304)
Josh Johnson(00)

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(4542225544)


C
Xc - Matt Belisle(53233)
Z - Paul Maholm(32434)
Doug Davis(40302)
Jon Lieber(31521)
Barry Zito(30402)


X
Russ Ortiz(34330)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(3342324)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(3242355455)


a
y - Micah Bowie(34400)

bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(4335444455)
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Brian Fuentes(5335445524)
bcxyz - Jose Valverde(3433254455)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(5153345534)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(3434344123)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(5544444132)
bcyz - Will Ohman(5532354534)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(3545552343)
bxy - Takashi Saito(5425445535)
cxy - Russ Springer(4442345453)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4535544254)
bx - Damaso Marte(3434443225)
by - Jorge Julio(4344554344)
cx - Randy Flores(3443144333)
cz - Rudy Seanez(3542424234)
x - LaTroy Hawkins(5545444454)
x - Yoel Hernandez(4541554414)
x - Kirk Saarloos(4404443452)
x - Armando Benitez(4531344435)
x - Matt Wise(2344434535)
x - Mike Zagurski(4543434053)
x - Carlos Marmol(3413444245)
x - Jared Burton(3454542530)
x - Taylor Buchholz(3125543344)
x - Matt Lindstrom(4342553342)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4334234442)
x - Kevin Cameron(3342452434)
x - Oscar Villarreal(4321243444)
x - Joe Smith(4322445034)
x - Tyler Yates(2333445333)
x - Rafael Soriano(5533323035)
y - Joe Beimel(4442544405)
y - Vinnie Chulk(4334525443)
y - Manuel Corpas(3444421524)
y - Juan Cruz(5241224444)
y - Saul Rivera(3424340532)
z - Guillermo Mota(5214433435)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
Jon Rauch(4434443445)
Justin Miller(4234445443)
Kelvin Jimenez(4443544411)
Jonathan Sanchez(3242344444)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Brian Moehler(3255354423)
Antonio Alfonseca(5343453422)
Mark Hendrickson(4434225234)

Somehow LaTroy Hawkins owns the best recent string of appearances, but as a Rockies' middle reliever, he doesn't belong on anyone's active roster. Armando Benitez qualifies as a far more interesting option, and while he appears set to spend the rest of this season as a middle reliever, don't be surprised to see him regain a closing job this winter given the remarkably shallow free agent market for late-inning relievers.


b
cyz - Brad Thompson(34304)
Kyle Lohse(43401)

cxyz - Mike Wuertz(2443433334)
xyz - Bob Howry(4534543433)
xyz - Chad Cordero(3441532514)
cy - Duaner Sanchez
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(3235444351)
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
xy - Peter Moylan(2444553334)
xy - Brett Tomko(3254533235)
c - John Grabow(0540202452)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Tyler Johnson(1355402334)
x - Matt Capps(3134323155)
y - Salomon Torres(3335242430)
y - Gary Majewski(4432332040)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
y - Randy Choate(00)
z - Eddie Guardado
Taylor Tankersley(3440301255)
Royce Ring(45543)
Geoff Geary(3343034142)
Todd Coffey(3223045423)
Renyel Pinto(2321025423)
Josh Sharpless(222332)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Braden Looper(42310)
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(3244333332)
z - Brandon Medders(3442253431)
z - Jonah Bayliss(1033534233)
Jose Mesa(4433454332)
Blaine Boyer(45452)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Scott Eyre(0102253533)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Chad Billingsley(00)

Ryan Franklin(4434433443)
Ramon Ramirez(3540355431)
Brad Salmon(3450514133)
Shawn Chacon(3332435334)


y
Brandon Lyon(2444354423)
Trever Miller(3434050244)
Clay Condrey(4441304133)
Chad Paronto(2333534423)
Rick White(3220234202)
Fabio Castro(30034)
Joey Devine(4)


z
Jay Bergmann(34340)

Jeremy Affeldt(4451414553)
Ryan Speier(441)
Jose Capellan(1523322)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Ryan Dempster's DL stint causes the most severe immediate ramifications from this week's transactions as Bobby Howry and possibly Carlos Marmol now will pitch at the end of Cubs' games, but the Milton Bradley deal will impact more fantasy races in the second half. On the AL side, Oakland's acquisition of Andrew Brown adds another promising young reliever to a rebuilding bullpen, though he still likely won't pitch in a significant role this year. Conversely, Bradley will claim the starting left field job in San Diego as soon as he returns to full health. Yes, moving to the best pitchers' park in the majors could create problems for him, but he at least offers plenty of upside in 5x5 leagues. Considering that he needs a strong second half to secure a sizeable free agent deal and that few superior players appear on the trade market, NL owners previously hoarding their FAAB probably should splurge for Bradley unless you both already own six $15+ outfielders and can't easily deal a $90+ free agent in your league due to cap concerns.


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