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May
21st
2007
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2007 Pitching: AL Spring Prospects

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Baltimore: Garrett Olson, 23, LH Starter
2-4 on a 44:10 K:BB in 54 IP over 9 GS
with 47 H, 4 HR, a 1.02 G-F, and a 3.83 ERA for AAA Norfolk(IL).

After passing through A-ball and Double-A over the previous year-and-a-half, Olson opened this season at Norfolk without missing a beat. He already looks like the club's best starter and soon could receive an opportunity if either Jeremy Guthrie or Brian Burres falters. However, although I see plenty of upside here, Olson isn't exactly dominating hitters and also isn't entering a great situation in Baltimore. While he certainly qualifies as someone to target upon his eventual promotion, Olson also doesn't merit more than minimal FAAB bids in single-season leagues.


Boston: Manny Delcarmen, 24, RH Reliever
2-2 on a 28:8 K:BB in 19.2 IP over 14 G
with 22 H, 1 HR, a .61 G-F, and a 5.03 ERA for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Though Travis Hughes owns a 0.38 ERA in 24 IP for the PawSox, Delcarmen's 40-man roster spot apparently gave him a needed edge as Boston promoted the young fireballer earlier today. He joins a surprisingly impressive bullpen, and if he impresses immediately, he even could bump someone like Joel Pineiro off the roster. Among Boston's young pitchers, Delcarmen also looks like the best bet to emerge as the long-term closer if Jon Papelbon doesn't remain in his current role due to injury or a rotation opening. However, despite his potential, you still should wait until Delcarmen claims a more significant role before rostering him anywhere.


Chicago White Sox: Gavin Floyd, 24, RH Starter
1-2 on a 27:13 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 6 GS
with 38 H, 4 HR, a .95 G-F, and a 3.74 ERA for AAA Charlotte(IL) With John Danks performing much better than I expected, Chicago's rotation seems set for the indefinite future barring injury. Floyd almost made a spot start on Sunday, but the Sox instead simply deployed Nick Masset, who enjoyed a surprisingly successful outing. While Floyd remains a good long-term bet, the club's reluctance to promote him this weekend, somewhat understandable in the light of his recent blister problems, indicates that he probably won't amass much roto value in 2007. Only target Floyd this summer if he appears likely to receive more than a token look in Chicago.


Cleveland: Adam Miller, 22, RH Starter
4-1 on a 39:14 K:BB in 44 IP over 7 GS
with 37 H, 2 HR, a 2.10 G-F, and a 2.45 ERA for AAA Buffalo(IL).

Fausto Carmona's emergence this spring already will leave the Indians an uncomfortable decision upon Jake Westbrook's return from the DL next month. Miller's success at Triple-A presents yet another opportunity for a club both on the verge of transitioning from Westbrook and Paul Byrd to homegrown youngsters and needing the steadying influence of veteran pitchers for a playoff run this year. Of course, yesterday's announcement that a strained flexor tendon caused Miller to miss his start could portend something far more serious, though thankfully the Indians don't need to rush the youngster in any way. Don't be surprised if he doesn't see the majors before September, but if healthy and given a chance during the summer, Miller should experience immediate success in Cleveland, making him someone to acquire as soon as you see him available on the waiver wire.


Detroit: Virgil Vasquez, 24, RH Starter
0-1 on a 1:2 K:BB in 2.2 IP over 1 GS
with 9 H, 1 HR, a 1.33 G-F, and a 20.25 ERA.
4-2 on a 56:11 K:BB in 45.2 IP over 8 GS
with 50 H, 6 HR, a 1.10 G-F, and a 3.94 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).

The International League strikeout leader completely flopped in his first big league start a week ago against the Twins, earning a quick trip back to the minors with little chance of returning to the majors any time soon. Detroit then ran through Zach Miner and Andrew Miller, apparently settling on the latter to occupy Jeremy Bonderman's rotation spot for now. Miller also appears the new default sixth starter, so though Vasquez remains a decent long-term option to replace someone like Mike Maroth, he can't afford any slippage from his current level of effectiveness if he wants another shot this summer. Definitely wait until Vasquez actually posts a successful start for the Tigers before rostering him anywhere.


Kansas City: Billy Buckner, 23, RH Reliever
4-0 on a 17:6 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 8 G
with 13 H, 1 HR, a 3.13 G-F, and a 4.02 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).
1-3 on a 13:6 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 3 GS(4G)
with 20 H, 4 HR, a 1.61 G-F, and a 4.66 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).

Promoted to Triple-A at the end of April and then immediately moved into the bullpen, Buckner soon should reach the majors if maintains his current level of effectiveness. Other than mildly questionable control, his all-around solid skill set makes him a great fit for a Kansas City club desperately seeking a second young reliever to join Joakim Soria in the team's long-term plans. With a surprising number of starting options available to the Royals, Buckner shouldn't worry about a return to the rotation any time soon. However, since he therefore appears stuck in middle relief, ignore him even when looking for roster filler unless he somehow improves on these skill ratios in the majors.


Los Angeles Angels: Kasey Olenberger, 28, RH Starter
5-1 on a 32:11 K:BB in 55.2 IP over 8 GS
with 57 H, 7 HR, a 1.27 G-F, and a 3.40 ERA for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

With Dustin Moseley settled into the bullpen and only Joe Saunders backing up the club's current starters, Olenberger just might find himself in the majors if the Angels encounter a couple more injuries. However, his success this spring appears more due to good luck than any real skill improvement since his walk and homer rates remain unacceptable high. Other than a mild drop in his walk rate, Olenberger shows no sign of emerging as more than a potential inning eater, giving you every reason to ignore him if he receives a shot in Los Angeles any time soon.


We'll continue tomorrow with more American League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: While Jeremy Bonderman should return later this week, Detroit's decision to keep Andrew Miller in the majors creates an excellent opportunity for owners in traditional leagues to roster an excellent prospect with minimal initial risk. Anyone in AL keeper leagues should check on Miller's availability and then attempt to nab him almost anywhere under $10 if you can stash him on reserve upon his demotion.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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