Today's Fantasy Rx

Minnesota: Carlos Silva, RH Starter
2-2 on a 20:9 K:BB in 36 IP over 6 GS
with 42 H, 3 HR, a 1.20 G-F, and a 2.75 ERA.

Silva no longer resembles the control-challenged groundball machine acquired from Philadelphia four years ago. Continuing a six-season slide, his current 1.20 G-F ranks as a career-low mark even while he owns a career-best 5.0 K/9. A bigger concern is that he needed an entire season in 2005 to reach nine walks as opposed to the six starts he required this spring. Of course, despite his dramatic skill evolution, Silva appears successful more due to good luck given his reasonably depressed hit and homer rates. I expect his ERA to rise no less than a full point, making him a good guy to shop while he still owns a sub-3.00 mark.

New York Yankees: Andy Pettitte, LH Starter
1-1 on a 23:17 K:BB in 36 IP over 6 GS(8G)
with 35 H, 2 HR, a 2.17 G-F, and a 3.00 ERA.

Currently ranking as almost the only New York pitcher not suffering from injury or ineffectiveness, Pettitte should receive a further boost once Roger Clemens returns at the end of the month. Unfortunately, he appears susceptible to potentially disastrous outings in the coming weeks given his worrisome command. Although he still ranks as an estimable veteran southpaw, even possessing an increasing groundball streak that limits his downside, I just don't see much overt upside here. If not for the near certainty that Pettitte will finish the season near this ERA while winning no fewer than a dozen more games, I'd recommend a far more aggressive course of action than simply suggesting you wait two more months to see if his skills rebound as expected, reserving him as necessary right now when he faces a particular tough lineup or pitching environment.

Oakland: Joe Kennedy, LH Starter
0-2 on a 14:13 K:BB in 29 IP over 5 GS(6G)
with 26 H, 2 HR, a 1.44 G-F, and a 2.48 ERA.

With Chad Gaudin moving ahead of Kennedy on Oakland's depth chart, the journeyman lefty needs the continued absence of one of the Athletics' veteran starters to remain in the rotation. The other problem I see is that Kennedy simply doesn't possess the appropriate level of command to remain successful in his current role, so although the outstanding support provided by the club's relief corps limits his downside to a great extent, I just don't envision him maintaining any sort of impressive qualitative stats over the balance of the year. However, he also clearly remains a favorite of both Billy Beane and Bob Geren, and if you can bench Kennedy when he faces the league's better offensive clubs, his even odds of posting positive value over the next few weeks make him a decent option to acquire if you need starters and see him available as a free agent.

Seattle: Brandon Morrow, RH Reliever
2-0 on a 13:11 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 10 G
with 10 H, 0 HR, a .73 G-F, and a 2.63 ERA.

Selected fifth overall in last year's draft, one spot ahead of Andrew Miller, two before Clay Kershaw, and five over Tim Lincecum, Morrow nevertheless possesses more big league experience than the other three pitchers combined after shockingly winning a job in camp. The Mariners, seeking to add any available high-upside pitchers to their bullpen, gave Morrow an unexpected shot despite the fact he entered 2007 with just sixteen professional innings under his belt. To date, he's rewarded their faith with decent overall stats and even seems a solid fantasy asset, but his walk and groundball rates suggest plenty of downside. With even established college relievers normally struggling when rushed to the majors in recent years, Morrow simply seems far too risky to deploy regular on a roto contender. Deal or cut Morrow unless holding him as long-term J.J. Putz insurance at a bargain-basement salary.

Tampa Bay: James Shields, RH Starter
3-0 on a 45:9 K:BB in 43.1 IP over 6 GS
with 35 H, 7 HR, a 1.27 G-F, and a 3.74 ERA.

Simply one of the best starters in the league to date, even superior to heralded teammate Scott Kazmir, Shields owns a 9.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and a 7.3 H/9 that combine to make him the most promising purely homegrown pitcher produced by the Devil Rays since joining the majors a decade ago. He ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts and WHIP, the two roto categories most indicative of both continuing and future success. As Tampa's inexperienced position players continue developing, I expect to see Shields' ERA and win total approach the level of his other contributions, making him a decent target if his current owner isn't paying careful attention to the dramatic upside possessed by the 25-year-old.

Texas: Robinson Tejeda, RH Starter
3-2 on a 27:10 K:BB in 37 IP over 6 GS
with 35 H, 7 HR, a .59 G-F, and a 3.89 ERA.

Right now Tejeda somehow ranks as the Rangers' best starter given Brandon McCarthy's meltdown, Vicente Padilla's inconsistency, Kevin Millwood's injury, and the unsurprising problems plaguing the club's normal parade of fifth starters. Nicely improved strikeout and walk rates give him a good chance for sustained effectiveness, and the Rangers' slowly surging offense will provide the support necessary for Tejeda to win another dozen games. Unfortunately, his poor groundball rate means that his homer rate will remain high as the weather warms, leaving him at severe risk for regular drubbings in the Texas heat. In consideration of our historical reluctance to run any Rangers' starter, most owners should seek to deal Tejeda while his currently sub-4.00 ERA temporarily inflates his trade value.

Toronto: Casey Janssen, RH Reliever
0-0 and 1 Save on a 3:2 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 12 G
with 15 H, 0 HR, a 1.28 G-F, and a 1.10 ERA.

One of two previous starters surprisingly retained in Toronto's bullpen at the end of spring training, Janssen joined Shaun Marcum in providing John Gibbons with unnecessary late-inning alternatives to Jason Frasor upon B.J. Ryan's perhaps inevitable DL trip. However, unlike Frasor, Marcum, and even Jeremy Accardo, Janssen lacks the skill set normally associated with a closer, illustrated in particular by his complete lack of dominance. Perhaps he will remain effective in middle relief, but aside from a solid walk rate, nothing here offers any indication that his qualitative success to date stems from anything other than superlative luck. With the minimal chance of additional quantitative contributions simply not worth his otherwise significant downside, take advantage of your first opportunity to deal or cut Janssen if you rostered him in the hope of seeing him vulture a couple of saves that really belong to better pitchers in the Jays' bullpen.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League overachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If your league allows you to roster minor leaguers when making regular transactions, make every effort to add Roger Clemens to your team this week. Although he won't match the outstanding ERA he posted over the last two seasons in Houston against the tougher AL East competition, Clemens seems certain to maintain positive qualitative stats while returning to double-digit wins thanks to the Yankees' unbelievably loaded offense.