Today's Fantasy Rx

Baltimore: Steve Trachsel, RH Starter
1-3 on a 14:17 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 7 GS
with 36 H, 4 HR, .88 G-F, and a 3.70 ERA.

Since Trachsel hasn't posted an ERA this low since 2002, near the beginning of his extended stint with the Mets, he won't be able to maintain a sub-4.00 mark in a much tougher division, especially considering his career-worst 3.1 K/9. I expect his walk, hit, and homer rates to rise as the season progresses, and even if he maintains his current skill rates, the 36-year-old has little margin for error on a team with as many holes as the Orioles. Only teams desperate for any innings can afford not to deal the journeyman before his inevitable regression to negative fantasy value.

Boston: Tim Wakefield, RH Starter
3-3 on a 21:18 K:BB in 38.1 IP over 6 GS
with 28 H, 2 HR, a .98 G-F, and a 2.11 ERA.

While Wakefield no longer needs to worry about losing his rotation slot with Roger Clemens heading to New York and Julian Tavarez merely keeping a spot warm for Jon Lester, the 41-year-old knuckleballer appears horrendously unlikely to maintain his current pace. Wakefield only exceeded a dozen wins once since 1998 and hasn't posted an ERA below 4.09 since 2002. Declining strikeout and walk rates also leave him vulnerable to any rise in his abnormally-depressed hit and homer rates. He certainly belongs on someone's roster in almost all leagues, but you also need to take advantage of any opportunity to shop the veteran given the strong likelihood that he'll contribute no more than eight wins with an ERA near 5.00 over the balance of the year.

Chicago White Sox: David Aardsma, RH Reliever
2-0 on a 25:7 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 12 G
with 10 H, 1 HR, a .75 G-F, and a 1.53 ERA.

With as many wins as any Chicago starter, Aardsma alone makes the Neal Cotts trade look like a steal for the White Sox. The 25-year-old owns an outstanding 12.8 K/9 and finally appears ready to fulfill his potential as the 22nd player selected in the 2003 draft. However, he appears most likely to remain in his current role this summer rather than supplant Bobby Jenks or even Mike MacDougal at the back of Ozzie Guillen's bullpen. While not someone to dump outright anywhere, Aardsma's qualitative contribution will decrease in the coming months, so feel free to deal him if you can upgrade to someone with more upside.

Cleveland: Fausto Carmona, RH Starter
3-1 on an 11:8 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS
with 32 H, 4 HR, a 2.35 G-F, and a 2.97 ERA.

Previously considered the best pitching prospect in the system next to only Adam Miller, Carmona's disastrous stint as Cleveland's closer last summer soured many owners on him despite the fact he just turned 23 in December. He opened the year as the Indians' sixth starter, claiming first Cliff Lee's rotation slot and most recently subbing for Jake Westbrook. Carmona's biggest problem remains poor command, but since Jeremy Sowers continues succeeding with the same issue, we can't discount the possibility that Carmona will stay similarly successful this summer. I see no reason not to ride him as long as he continues contributing in the majors, as well as recommending that any owner beginning to look towards 2008 should target Carmona given the virtual certainty of him holding a starting job next year.

Detroit: Wil Ledezma, LH Reliever
3-0 on a 9:10 K:BB in 16 IP over 9 G
with 14 H, 1 HR, a .94 G-F, and a 2.81 ERA.

Given Ledezma's poor command and the fact that his three victories leave him tied for the title of the Tigers' winningest pitcher, his fantasy value only should decrease from his current double-digit level. Yes, he's managed decent qualitative stats in the past despite unimpressive skills, but I also suspect the loss of Joel Zumaya will lead to problems throughout Detroit's bullpen. I see little choice except to advise you deal or cut Ledezma if his currently high win total led to take a gamble on the wild southpaw.

Kansas City: Jorge de la Rosa, LH Starter
3-2 on a 23:7 K:BB in 40 IP over 6 GS
with 39 H, 5 HR, .95 G-F, and a 3.38 ERA.

Another of the many post-hype former prospects breaking out this spring, de la Rosa's shockingly good control actually suggests he might maintain much of his statistical gains. No, I can't say that I truly trust any Royals' pitcher short of Gil Meche and current closer Joakim Soria, but de la Rosa's emergence also seems more overdue progress than an unsustainable hot streak. Although you should move him for an established slow starter if you can, you also can wait, retaining de la Rosa as one of your five or so primary starters, safe in the knowledge that he at least can contribute an impressively strong outing to equalize any disaster he adds to your ledger.

Los Angeles Angels: Bartolo Colon, RH Starter
3-0 on a 19:2 K:BB in 26 IP over 4 GS
with 25 H, 2 HR, a 1.00 G-F, and a 3.46 ERA.

The Angels' former ace appears back to his old form after missing much of the last fifteen years to injury. Colon won't steal another Cy from Johan Santana in 2007, but with increasingly outstanding control and little obvious downside, he also looks like an absolute steal for anyone that drafted him this spring. Anyone looking for a potential #1 starter needs to go find a way to acquire Colon before his current owner realizes that only a return to the DL should keep the veteran from posting the stats necessary to secure him one more massive deal in free agency this fall.

We'll continue tomorrow with more American League overachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The loss of Joel Zumaya for as many as three months punches a dramatic hole in the Tigers' bullpen alignment that simply can't be filled by any of their current relievers. Recalling Aquilino Lopez doesn't address the absence of Detroit's dominant middleman, and unless the club attempts a bold move, such as recalling International League strikeout leader Virgil Vazquez to replace Zumaya, both Detroit's record and the corresponding fantasy performance of their starters inevitably will suffer. Shopping any Tigers' starter that you might own, even Jeremy Bonderman, appears justified if you can find a trade that improves your overall roster.