Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to the first week of our formal LPR rankings this season, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 2nd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(44245)
CXc - Matt Belisle(43234)
AX - Shawn Hill(44444)
AX - Tim Hudson(53444)
AX - Tom Gorzelanny(34354)
Mark Hendrickson(445)

Tim Hudson's resurgence probably leads most NL pitching stories this year as Peavy simply returned to his statistical mean after an unlucky 2006 campaign. Of course, the other four starters strike me as far more interesting players. Hill owns an outstanding groundball rate and a set of QA scores that rank him with any starter in baseball. Belisle, finally capitalizing on his former prospect status with the Braves, unfortunately seems the riskiest pick of this bunch given his general lack of dominance. Gorzelanny's emergence also should surprise no one who watched his progress through the minors. Lastly, we always suspected Hendrickson's 6'9" stature made him a decent sleeper, and thanks to the support of both Dodger Stadium and the LA defense, he merits ownership in all NL leagues.

2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(34444)
3ABXY - John Smoltz(34424)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
ABCXYZ - Brandon Webb(42553)
by - Adam Wainwright(31310)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(3534434443)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(3233544124)
abcyz - Bob Wickman(4253444322)
abxy - Cla Meredith(5554443444)
bxy - Pedro Feliciano(2533543333)
ax - Doug Brocail(2423444444)

3
ACX - Dontrelle Willis(44314)
Zach Duke(50043)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4445454434)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(5454441234)
cx - Ryan Madson(2433333345)

Ignore the fact that Qualls remains stuck in middle relief. He remains the safest pitcher to own in Houston's bullpen despite his lack of saves.

A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(55344)
Xcz - Braden Looper(34543)
BX - David Bush(44353)
CX - Doug Davis(43344)
B - Cole Hamels(42522)
X - Ted Lilly(45534)
X - Jason Marquis(44534)
X - Rich Hill(44425)
X - Orlando Hernandez(44254)
X - Jason Hirsh(43443)
X - Chris Capuano(55430)
X - Kip Wells(54503)
X - Aaron Harang(40533)
X - Ian Snell(43234)
Aaron Cook(42443)
Matt Morris(41442)
Livan Hernandez(24134)
Tom Glavine(22344)

Only a few of these guys appears particularly underrated right now, a group that includes Maddux, Bush, and Wells. Everyone else, particularly the Cubs' starters, appears at significant risk of seeing their fantasy value decrease over the balance of the season.

B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(20303)
CZ - Derek Lowe(45023)
C - Carlos Zambrano(40243)
X - Brad Penny(23334)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo
CZ - Pedro Martinez
Josh Johnson
Alay Soler

C - Brett Myers(44433544)
Carlos Villanueva(4431444212)

C
Z - Paul Maholm(03340)
Jon Lieber(553)
Barry Zito(24223)
Randy Johnson(14)

X
z - Jay Bergmann(03443)
Randy Wolf(35433)
Jeff Suppan(45333)
Chuck James(34043)
Bronson Arroyo(42343)
Jeff Francis(40334)
John Maine(40433)
Oliver Perez(50343)
Anthony Reyes(42433)
Jerome Williams(44313)
Jamie Moyer(23343)
Russ Ortiz(34330)
Josh Fogg(33033)

I almost feel bad for Russ Ortiz given that Tim Lincecum, set to debut tomorrow, appears unlikely to leave the Giants' rotation any time soon, but the veteran will receive $16M from Arizona between 2007 and 2008 to pitch for a division competitor, a sum that nicely compensates him for an expected demotion to the bullpen upon his return from the DL despite decent stats to date in San Francisco's rotation.

Y
Edgar Gonzalez(32352)

Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4455353353)

Other than a lack of save opportunities, I see nothing wrong with Dempster's performance this spring.

a
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(4555543553)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(3335455345)
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(1353434554)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(5433323544)
bcxz - Heath Bell(5554355445)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(3544542234)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(2152044544)
bcyz - Mike Wuertz(5542353224)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(5555431333)
bcz - Scott Schoeneweis(4440045443)
bxy - Takashi Saito(5444453534)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4455334245)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(4534524453)
bx - Matt Capps(3354414554)
bx - Todd Coffey(4435355325)
bx - Damaso Marte(3533504554)
cx - Randy Flores(3542343444)
cz - Rudy Seanez(2352545352)
xy - Manuel Corpas(4235544233)
b - Renyel Pinto(5234435344)
x - Joe Smith(5455444554)
x - Oscar Villarreal(4453444234)
x - Tyler Yates(5434155435)
x - Tony Pena(3344545432)
x - Armando Benitez(3125344454)
x - Brian Shouse(2434244334)
x - Brad Hennessey(2434404343)
x - Kirk Saarloos(3233434404)
y - Micah Bowie(4044543524)
Antonio Alfonseca(4444444231)
Kevin Correia(2524425440)
Jon Rauch(4434151243)
Henry Owens(3342214452)

You already should know which set-up men merit ownership from this list, but middle relievers demanding roster spots include Bell, Pinto, and 2006 third rounder Joe Smith. Two intriguing trends demanding attention are Armando Benitez's continued rebound and Brad Lidge's comparable return to form over his last five outings. Both pitchers qualify as decent buy-low candidates.

b
y - Brett Tomko(4143)
Kyle Lohse(24322)

cyz - Jose Valverde(5332342424)
cyz - Will Ohman(0302224045)
cyz - Brad Thompson(3323333451)
xyz - Bob Howry(4333341343)
cy - Duaner Sanchez
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
yz - Chad Cordero(3344134323)
c - John Grabow(3243)
x - Tyler Johnson(5443435333)
x - Geoff Geary(4330355434)
y - Salomon Torres(4213453212)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Peter Moylan(23344332)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
y - Jorge Julio(3221232)
y - Gary Majewski
y - Josh Kinney
z - Eddie Guardado
Elmer Dessens(335234335)
Taylor Tankersley(24133244)
Royce Ring(45)
Tim Hamulack
Josh Sharpless
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker

c
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xy - Russ Springer(2433345433)
xz - David Weathers(3553332355)
yz - Macay McBride(42242)
yz - Brian Shackelford
z - Brandon Medders(2012143443)
z - Jonah Bayliss(4332332310)
z - Kerry Wood
Ambiorix Burgos(5322423334)
Scott Eyre(1254324133)
Ryan Wagner(4322431313)
Blaine Boyer
Roberto Novoa
Yhency Brazoban
Franquelis Osoria

x
y - Joe Beimel(3333443244)
Doug Slaten(3543535332)
Lee Gardner(5432434332)
Matt Lindstrom(4353423333)
Ryan Franklin(4353333325)
Shawn Chacon(4433304313)

y
Rick White(54344234)
Saul Rivera(504532424)
Chad Paronto(52434243)
Brandon Lyon(1343443212)
Juan Cruz(5224325)
Trever Miller(2103304431)
Vinnie Chulk(2253413322)
Fabio Castro(3)
Casey Daigle
Joey Devine

z
Jeremy Affeldt(5403532342)
Neal Cotts(24424420)
Ryan Speier(441)
Jose Capellan
Guillermo Mota
Scott Munter

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings

Today's Fantasy Rx: Tim Lincecum easily tops the list of intriguing NL transactions this week as his promotion tomorrow demands you examine his availability in every NL and MLB format. No minor league starter possesses more 2007 upside, though unless you can grab him as a free agent, I see no reason to target him in keeper leagues due to the exorbitant trade cost likely demand by his current owner. The Mets decision to replace Chan Ho Park with Jorge Sosa creates a respectable fallback option for teams needing starters. Sosa owns a 4-0 record and 1.13 ERA on a 29:4 K:BB in 32 IP over 5 GS with 29 H, 1 HR, and a 1.23 G-F, which strongly suggests that one more disaster from Mike Pelfrey will lead new York to keep Sosa when El Duque returns to the rotation. Definitely consider bidding several bucks to grab Sosa, either as a second pick-up or merely as a fallback if you miss Lincecum.