Today's Fantasy Rx

I will spend one more column looking at a few individually dominant NL pitchers this week before presenting the first in-season LPR rankings of 2007 next week.

Last week I analyzed the seven most effective NL starters through no less than three starts: Ted Lilly, Kip Wells, Shawn Hill, Jake Peavy, Jason Marquis, John Smoltz, and Roy Oswalt. Given another week of starts, two more pitchers reached similar qualifications without registering more than one disaster.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

4 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Tim Hudson, ATL(45344): 3-0 on a 31:11 K:BB in 37 IP over 5 GS with 25 H, 1 HR, a 2.19 G-F, and a 1.22 ERA. Among the best comeback stories this spring, Hudson, taking full advantage of the Braves' improved defense and bullpen, once again looks like a Cy Young contender. An overall return to dominance combines with an excellent groundball rate to rank Hudson among the best pitchers in baseball. I see no reason to expect anything worse than a gradual move toward a 3.00 ERA, so unless an offer blows you away, owners sufficiently savvy to draft the once-and-future ace this spring simply should wait with the reasonable expectation that Hudson will finish the year in the $15 range, right next to teammate John Smoltz.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Orlando Hernandez, NYM(44254): 2-1 on a 25:13 K:BB in 32 IP over 5 GS with 22 H, 5 HR, a .91 G-F, and a 2.53 ERA. Re-signing El Duque to a two-year for a total of $12M seems a great move thus far for the Mets. However, other than a great hit rate that appears here mostly due New York's defense, Hernandez's skills aren't that good and strongly suggest a pending ERA spike. With health similarly always a concern, definitely seek to deal the veteran now for a younger pitcher with more upside, such as almost anyone on the Brewers or Pirates.

When examining dominant NL relievers two weeks ago, nine pitchers emerged as the safest bets in the league: Derrick Turnbow, Kirk Saarloos, Cla Meredith, Jonathan Broxton, Manuel Corpas, Scott Linebrink, LaTroy Hawkins, Jon Rauch, and Henry Owens. A few more of the best NL relievers warrant reviews this week thanks to their combination of impressive upside and minimal downside. We've included up to the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

9 DOM, 3 DUL, 0 DIS
Joe Smith, NYM(3535545544): 1-0 on an 11:4 K:BB in 11 IP over 12 G with 7 H, 0 HR, a 19-7 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Selected ninety-fourth overall last June, the sidearmer already looks like a perfect replacement for the departed Chad Bradford. Though I don't envision Smith receiving save opportunities any time soon, few pitchers offer less downside outside of San Diego. Definitely seek to acquire the youngster anywhere you might need a low-risk option to rotate among your higher-risk starters.

9 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Chad Qualls, HOU(3544454544): 2-1 and 1 Save on a 9:2 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 11 G with 7 H, 1 HR, an 18-4 G-F, and a 3.72 ERA. Right now only Dan Wheeler's good health stands between Qualls and a shot at closing. Of course, considering his outstanding skill set and overall effectiveness, Qualls belongs on someone's roster in NL leagues. Even the possibility of Brad Lidge's return to closing and the subsequent demotion of Qualls into middle relief doesn't dissuade me from treating him as one of safest relievers to own in the league, as well as someone to acquire wherever he remains available.

8 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Francisco Cordero, MIL(4345555435): 0-0 and 8 Saves on a 17:6 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 10 G with 2 H, a 4-6 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Without the downside of pitching in Arlington at the back end of an extremely questionable pitching staff, even Cordero's control problems can't keep him from spending the year among the most valuable closers in baseball. The Brewers should continue winning, Derrick Turnbow's rebound provides the necessary bridge from Milwaukee's loaded rotation, and Cordero's demonstrated dominance all combine to insure his continued success. Anyone who rostered him during your draft definitely should wait before taking any action, as should everyone else unless you see a dumping owner willing to move the closer for a reasonable price.

8 DOM, 0 DUL, 2 DIS
Antonio Alfonseca, PHI(5214444444): 1-0 on a 3:4 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 10 G with 7 H, 0 HR, 2.30 G-F, and a 0.77 ERA. While Alfonseca's overall performance impresses me, he no longer possesses more than minimal roto value following Brett Myers' move to the bullpen. Myers will pick up any extant save opportunities, and with Pulpo's strikeout rate already questionable, his qualitative stats seem sure to rise. If you rostered him in the hope of lucking into a closer, deal or cut Alfonseca before the inevitable disastrous outings.

8 DOM, 2 DUL, 3 DIS
Micah Bowie, WAS(3444044543): 0-1 on an 8:2 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 13 G with 9 H, 1 HR, a 15-11 G-F, and a 3.48 ERA. The Nationals' lack of established starters and generally questionable talent sometimes camouflages the fact that RFK remains an excellent pitchers' park. Bowie, owning surprisingly solid overall skills, offers remarkably little downside as the club's lefty specialist. He won't add much more than decent qualitative stats and an occasional vulture win, but if you need short-term roster filler, he looks like a respectable guy to target.

6 DOM, 4 DUL, 0 DIS
Tony Pena, ARI(4333344545): 2-1 on a 6:5 K:BB in 13 IP over 10 G with 7 H, 0 HR, a 19-11 G-F, and a 1.39 ERA. Jose Valverde appears in no danger of losing his closer's job any time soon, and if something happens to Valverde, Brandon Lyon remains a perfectly decent alternative. However, with Pena's intriguing QA trend and impressive effectiveness compensating for his irregular command, he appears the most likely long-term closer on the team. The problem for Pena is that unless his strikeout and walk rates improve in the short-term, he won't warrant many looks in the late-inning, which leaves most owners without sufficient reason to roster him at this time. Current Pena owners and prospective insurance salesman simply should shop him in a larger deal to the team with Valverde.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Houston's decision to promote Hunter Pence today effectively sends Chris Burke to the bench for the rest of the year since the Astros' need for power precludes any serious consideration of removing Luke Scott from the everyday lineup. Barring a complete defensive breakdown, Pence will occupy center indefinitely, and after his solid 2006 campaign, stunning spring training performance, and a .341/.398/.588 output with 3 HR, 19 RBI, 16 R, a 2/2 SB%, and an 8:14 BB:K in 85 AB for AAA Round Rock(PCL), he simply needs no more seasoning. Consider him no worse than a strong third outfielder in NL leagues and even a decent fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed formats, easily worth a significant FAAB investment anywhere he remains available.