Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

I will spend one more column looking at a few individually dominant AL pitchers this week before presenting the first in-season LPR rankings of 2007 next week.

Last week I analyzed the five most effective AL starters through no less than three starts: Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Daniel Cabrera, John Lackey, and Jeremy Bonderman. Given another week of starts, four more pitchers reached similar qualifications without registering more than one disaster.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

3 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Johan Santana, MIN(33554): 3-2 on a 39:8 K:BB in 34 IP over 5 GS with 24 H, 4 HR, a .88 G-F, and a 3.44 ERA. I won't even feign surprise that Santana tops our first starter ranking. Of course, he doesn't own a particularly impressive ERA, and his low rate also suggests potential problems over the next month or so. The good news is that his long-term prognosis remains as solid as any pitcher in the game. If you paid the price necessary to draft him last month, you simply must wait until his inevitable second-half surge, rendering Santana essentially untouchable on all save the most hopeless of rebuilding teams.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Josh Beckett, BOS(3554): 4-0 on a 25:7 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 4 GS with 19 H, 1 HR, a 1.20 G-F, and a 2.55 ERA. The hottest pitcher in baseball suddenly appears on the verge of justifying the loss of Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, especially with Sanchez hurting and Mike Lowell also posting great numbers. While Beckett should see some deterioration in his qualitative stats, he appears an excellent candidate for twenty wins thanks to the combination of his skill development and the support offered by both Boston's bullpen and loaded offense. Only shop Beckett if you see some chance of flipping him for a comparable high-upside youngster while also netting a significant upgrade at another vital position.

Chad Gaudin, OAK(3445): 1-0 on a 20:7 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 4 GS with 16 H, 2 HR, a 1.57 G-F, and a 1.85 ERA. We saw some indication of a coming breakout after the 22-year-old Gaudin posted a 3.35 ERA on a 113:35 K:BB in 150.1 IP for AAA Syracuse(IL) in 2005, but his terrible command in Oakland's bullpen last summer soured me on his fantasy worth. Rather than watching his stats deteriorate in a second tour as a reliever, he instead claimed Esteban Loaiza's open rotation spot and quickly emerged as another feather in Billy Beane's cap. Though I expect Gaudin's ERA to double by year's end, he otherwise looks like a perfectly sound bet in almost any format. Only seek to deal him if you play in a league with a bunch of Moneyball fans that might overpay for Oakland's hot new young starter.

Nate Robertson, DET(3444): 2-1 on a 17:7 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 1 HR, a 1.54 G-F, and a 2.05 ERA. Detroit's most frequently forgotten starter suddenly seems ready to compensate for the loss of Kenny Rogers atop the Tigers' rotation. Robertson may not own a particularly impressive skill set, but only Jeremy Bonderman ranks as a safer investment among the club's starters. Of course, he also doesn't possess the upside offered by Bonderman or Justin Verlander, and considering Robertson's value seems certain to decrease as the season progresses, you may want to shop him now while his value appears at its zenith.

When examining dominant AL relievers two weeks ago, seven pitchers emerged as the safest bets in the league: Scot Shields, Jason Frasor, Bobby Jenks, John Parrish, J.C. Romero, Alan Embree, and Justin Duchscherer. A few more of the best AL relievers warrant reviews this week thanks to their combination of impressive upside and minimal downside. We've included up to the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

8 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS
Al Reyes, TB(5354444425): 0-0 and 7 Saves on a 13:2 K:BB in 10 IP over 10 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 4-12 G-F, and a 1.80 ERA. A vastly underrated reliever prior to missing 2006 due to injury, Reyes now ranks with almost any AL closer, only remaining below the first tier due to the historically uncertain nature of Tampa's bullpen. He certainly owns the skills necessary to hold his role indefinitely, and if you need saves, I see little reason not to target Reyes before he hits double-digit saves and will cost as much as far more established options. While you probably should seek to move him by the end of the first half due to the strong likelihood that Tampa will deal the pending free agent, Reyes will not disappoint you in the intervening months if you invest in him now.

8 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Scott Downs, TOR(044454454): 0-0 on a 7:3 K:BB in 4.1 IP over 9 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 5-2 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Not someone I regularly recommend due to his control issues, Downs' excellent work to date as the Jays' lefty specialist qualifies him as remarkably low-risk roster filler in standard AL leagues. You'll need to monitor his role, dumping him if he ever moves into the rotation, but Downs otherwise seems a solid guy to acquire, offering decent K upside, along with a good chance to vulture at least one win or save each month. Just don't keep him if you see his QA scores trending in an unfavorable direction.

8 DOM, 1 DUL, 2 DIS
Danys Baez, BAL(4044554424): 0-0 on a 4:3 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 6 H, 2 HR, a 1.55 G-F, and a 3.38 ERA. While we always considered Baez an underrated closer, he appears miscast in his current set-up role due to his inconsistent dominance. The problem for Baez is that his contract precludes any sort of demotion, and unless Chris Ray self-destructs, he faces no chance for a promotion to the ninth inning. Yet Baez isn't allowing many batters to reach base and certainly qualifies as the club's fallback closer, so if his slow start sends him to the waiver wire in your league, look to acquire Baez due to his respectable quantitative potential.

6 DOM, 6 DUL, 0 DIS
Justin Speier, LAA(3545345335): 0-0 on a 15:5 K:BB in 13 IP over 12 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 6-12 G-F, and a 1.39 ERA. The four-year contracts awarded both Speier and Scot Shields this spring baffle me with KRod rapidly heading toward free agency in the fall of 2008. Bill Stoneman's previous success in finding low-cost relief help similarly calls the moves into question, but at least Speier has justified the deal to date. Unfortunately, with Shields clearly established in the eighth inning, Speier won't receive many chances for wins or saves, leaving him little value beyond his strikeouts and qualitative stats. Since I also don't see him maintaining these numbers indefinitely, feel free to include him a larger deal that upgrades you at a more important roster spot than your low-risk middle reliever.

We'll continue tomorrow with NL LPR.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sun:@DET(J.Bonderman)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:MIL(C.Capuano)
Ben Sheets: No start.
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: No start.
Brandon Webb: No start.
Josh Beckett: No start.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Fri:@NYY(A.Pettitte)
Dan Haren: Sat:TB(C.Fossum)
Jon Papelbon: 3 Road at NYY.
Rich Harden: No start(DL)
Felix Hernandez: No start(DL)
Matt Cain: Sat:@ARI(Ed.Gonzalez)

The Toronto rainout earlier this week pushes back Halladay until Monday, leaving us zero options here as we'll deploy our six active pitchers.

While we want to return Josh Bard to the lineup, Colorado's homestand means that Iannetta, who's finally starting to hit a little, will avoid the bench for a couple more days. Instead Bard, Kaz Matsui, and Hafner stay benched while Atkins and Holliday respectively sub for David Wright, spending the weekend in Washington, and Rocco Baldelli, who appears set to miss the weekend with a leg contusion.

Rotohelp.com(14th; 339th overall)
Week 4b: April 27-April 29

C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Chris Iannetta		340 
1B	Albert Pujols		2050
1B	Ryan Howard		1420 
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
2B	Kelly Johnson		400
3B	Garrett Atkins		1150 
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610
SS	Bill Hall		900 
OF	Matt Holliday		1410
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000 
OF	Willy Taveras		860
OF	Delmon Young		750 
OF	Shane Victorino		560 
DH	Hanley Ramirez		1100 
DH	J.D. Drew		940

SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Roy Oswalt		1550 
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	950
SP	Dan Haren		940 
SP	Matt Cain		840
SP	Jon Papelbon		900
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 4b Salary:		29980

Today's Fantasy Rx: Yesterday's promotion of Brandon Wood shouldn't excite anyone with Chone Figgins set to return on Monday. I similarly don't see Jorge Cantu receiving regular work in Tampa unless one of the club's current 1B/DH options falters since B.J. Upton appears firmly established at second base. The two moves that offer the most upside to AL owners instead look like Seattle's promotion of Cha Seung Baek and the Athletics' activation of Dan Johnson. Oakland's need for offense provides Johnson with a clear shot to see no fewer than five starts a week while Baek, who ranked among the best sixth starters at the end of camp, enjoys an excellent opportunity to stake his claim on a long-term rotation slot on the Mariners. Both players warrant decent FAAB investments in AL leagues where they remain available.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.


Rotohelp Our Philosophy		2007 AL LPR: Week 4 by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx I will spend one more column looking at a few individually dominant AL pitchers this week before presenting the first in-season LPR rankings of 2007 next week. Last week I analyzed the five most effective AL starters through no less than three starts: Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Daniel Cabrera, John Lackey, and Jeremy Bonderman. Given another week of starts, four more pitchers reached similar qualifications without registering more than one disaster. QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher. 3 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS Johan Santana, MIN(33554): 3-2 on a 39:8 K:BB in 34 IP over 5 GS with 24 H, 4 HR, a .88 G-F, and a 3.44 ERA. I won't even feign surprise that Santana tops our first starter ranking. Of course, he doesn't own a particularly impressive ERA, and his low rate also suggests potential problems over the next month or so. The good news is that his long-term prognosis remains as solid as any pitcher in the game. If you paid the price necessary to draft him last month, you simply must wait until his inevitable second-half surge, rendering Santana essentially untouchable on all save the most hopeless of rebuilding teams. 3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS Josh Beckett, BOS(3554): 4-0 on a 25:7 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 4 GS with 19 H, 1 HR, a 1.20 G-F, and a 2.55 ERA. The hottest pitcher in baseball suddenly appears on the verge of justifying the loss of Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, especially with Sanchez hurting and Mike Lowell also posting great numbers. While Beckett should see some deterioration in his qualitative stats, he appears an excellent candidate for twenty wins thanks to the combination of his skill development and the support offered by both Boston's bullpen and loaded offense. Only shop Beckett if you see some chance of flipping him for a comparable high-upside youngster while also netting a significant upgrade at another vital position. Chad Gaudin, OAK(3445): 1-0 on a 20:7 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 4 GS with 16 H, 2 HR, a 1.57 G-F, and a 1.85 ERA. We saw some indication of a coming breakout after the 22-year-old Gaudin posted a 3.35 ERA on a 113:35 K:BB in 150.1 IP for AAA Syracuse(IL) in 2005, but his terrible command in Oakland's bullpen last summer soured me on his fantasy worth. Rather than watching his stats deteriorate in a second tour as a reliever, he instead claimed Esteban Loaiza's open rotation spot and quickly emerged as another feather in Billy Beane's cap. Though I expect Gaudin's ERA to double by year's end, he otherwise looks like a perfectly sound bet in almost any format. Only seek to deal him if you play in a league with a bunch of Moneyball fans that might overpay for Oakland's hot new young starter. Nate Robertson, DET(3444): 2-1 on a 17:7 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 1 HR, a 1.54 G-F, and a 2.05 ERA. Detroit's most frequently forgotten starter suddenly seems ready to compensate for the loss of Kenny Rogers atop the Tigers' rotation. Robertson may not own a particularly impressive skill set, but only Jeremy Bonderman ranks as a safer investment among the club's starters. Of course, he also doesn't possess the upside offered by Bonderman or Justin Verlander, and considering Robertson's value seems certain to decrease as the season progresses, you may want to shop him now while his value appears at its zenith. When examining dominant AL relievers two weeks ago, seven pitchers emerged as the safest bets in the league: Scot Shields, Jason Frasor, Bobby Jenks, John Parrish, J.C. Romero, Alan Embree, and Justin Duchscherer. A few more of the best AL relievers warrant reviews this week thanks to their combination of impressive upside and minimal downside. We've included up to the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher. QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. 8 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS Al Reyes, TB(5354444425): 0-0 and 7 Saves on a 13:2 K:BB in 10 IP over 10 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 4-12 G-F, and a 1.80 ERA. A vastly underrated reliever prior to missing 2006 due to injury, Reyes now ranks with almost any AL closer, only remaining below the first tier due to the historically uncertain nature of Tampa's bullpen. He certainly owns the skills necessary to hold his role indefinitely, and if you need saves, I see little reason not to target Reyes before he hits double-digit saves and will cost as much as far more established options. While you probably should seek to move him by the end of the first half due to the strong likelihood that Tampa will deal the pending free agent, Reyes will not disappoint you in the intervening months if you invest in him now. 8 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS Scott Downs, TOR(044454454): 0-0 on a 7:3 K:BB in 4.1 IP over 9 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 5-2 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Not someone I regularly recommend due to his control issues, Downs' excellent work to date as the Jays' lefty specialist qualifies him as remarkably low-risk roster filler in standard AL leagues. You'll need to monitor his role, dumping him if he ever moves into the rotation, but Downs otherwise seems a solid guy to acquire, offering decent K upside, along with a good chance to vulture at least one win or save each month. Just don't keep him if you see his QA scores trending in an unfavorable direction. 8 DOM, 1 DUL, 2 DIS Danys Baez, BAL(4044554424): 0-0 on a 4:3 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 6 H, 2 HR, a 1.55 G-F, and a 3.38 ERA. While we always considered Baez an underrated closer, he appears miscast in his current set-up role due to his inconsistent dominance. The problem for Baez is that his contract precludes any sort of demotion, and unless Chris Ray self-destructs, he faces no chance for a promotion to the ninth inning. Yet Baez isn't allowing many batters to reach base and certainly qualifies as the club's fallback closer, so if his slow start sends him to the waiver wire in your league, look to acquire Baez due to his respectable quantitative potential. 6 DOM, 6 DUL, 0 DIS Justin Speier, LAA(3545345335): 0-0 on a 15:5 K:BB in 13 IP over 12 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 6-12 G-F, and a 1.39 ERA. The four-year contracts awarded both Speier and Scot Shields this spring baffle me with KRod rapidly heading toward free agency in the fall of 2008. Bill Stoneman's previous success in finding low-cost relief help similarly calls the moves into question, but at least Speier has justified the deal to date. Unfortunately, with Shields clearly established in the eighth inning, Speier won't receive many chances for wins or saves, leaving him little value beyond his strikeouts and qualitative stats. Since I also don't see him maintaining these numbers indefinitely, feel free to include him a larger deal that upgrades you at a more important roster spot than your low-risk middle reliever. We'll continue tomorrow with NL LPR. Internet Challenge SP(6) Johan Santana: Sun:@DET(J.Bonderman) Roy Oswalt: Fri:MIL(C.Capuano) Ben Sheets: No start. Jake Peavy: No start. Roy Halladay: No start. Brandon Webb: No start. Josh Beckett: No start. Daisuke Matsuzaka: Fri:@NYY(A.Pettitte) Dan Haren: Sat:TB(C.Fossum) Jon Papelbon: 3 Road at NYY. Rich Harden: No start(DL) Felix Hernandez: No start(DL) Matt Cain: Sat:@ARI(Ed.Gonzalez) The Toronto rainout earlier this week pushes back Halladay until Monday, leaving us zero options here as we'll deploy our six active pitchers. While we want to return Josh Bard to the lineup, Colorado's homestand means that Iannetta, who's finally starting to hit a little, will avoid the bench for a couple more days. Instead Bard, Kaz Matsui, and Hafner stay benched while Atkins and Holliday respectively sub for David Wright, spending the weekend in Washington, and Rocco Baldelli, who appears set to miss the weekend with a leg contusion. Rotohelp.com(14th; 339th overall) Week 4b: April 27-April 29 C Brian McCann 880 C Chris Iannetta 340 1B Albert Pujols 2050 1B Ryan Howard 1420 2B Ian Kinsler 630 2B Kelly Johnson 400 3B Garrett Atkins 1150 3B Mark Teahen 750 SS Jose Reyes 1610 SS Bill Hall 900 OF Matt Holliday 1410 OF Manny Ramirez 1390 OF Alex Rios 1000 OF Willy Taveras 860 OF Delmon Young 750 OF Shane Victorino 560 DH Hanley Ramirez 1100 DH J.D. Drew 940 SP Johan Santana 1960 SP Roy Oswalt 1550 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka 950 SP Dan Haren 940 SP Matt Cain 840 SP Jon Papelbon 900 RP Francisco Cordero 1260 RP Takashi Saito 1200 RP Ryan Dempster 1130 RP Joe Borowski 1110 Total Week 4b Salary: 29980 Today's Fantasy Rx: Yesterday's promotion of Brandon Wood shouldn't excite anyone with Chone Figgins set to return on Monday. I similarly don't see Jorge Cantu receiving regular work in Tampa unless one of the club's current 1B/DH options falters since B.J. Upton appears firmly established at second base. The two moves that offer the most upside to AL owners instead look like Seattle's promotion of Cha Seung Baek and the Athletics' activation of Dan Johnson. Oakland's need for offense provides Johnson with a clear shot to see no fewer than five starts a week while Baek, who ranked among the best sixth starters at the end of camp, enjoys an excellent opportunity to stake his claim on a long-term rotation slot on the Mariners. Both players warrant decent FAAB investments in AL leagues where they remain available. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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