Today's Fantasy Rx

Owner #6: Jason Suttor
Site: Team RotoAmerica
Reserve roster: Adam Miller, Joel Pineiro, Gustavo Chacin, Kendry Morales, and Toby Hall.

Nice pick: Delmon Young, R6; arguably a top-twenty pick, Young could cruise well past $20 without difficulty.
Top sleeper: Joel Pineiro, R22; just a middle reliever for now, Pineiro only needs a couple of good weeks to vault into a set-up role and a chance to close if Papelbon returns to the DL this season.
Potential bust: Justin Verlander, R10; though a decent value in this round, Verlander's significant IP increase leaves him highly susceptible to both injury and inefficiency.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jerry Owens, R26, appears unlikely to receive more than a cup-of-coffee. Neither Kendry Morales(R25) nor Toby Hall(R27) should see many at-bats.
Early good/bad luck: Hall's injury isn't a big deal with Joe Mauer(R2) as a starter, though the failure of Adam Miller(R21), Morales, and Owens to win jobs leaves Suttor with little depth, especially with Bartolo Colon(R16) and Juan Rivera(R24) on the DL. Even Jonny Gomes doesn't appear guaranteed to see many at-bats thanks to Elijah Dukes' early performance.
Category to trade: Starting pitching, including C.C. Sabathia(R3), John Lackey(R4), Ervin Santana(R7), Erik Bedard(R8), Verlander, Kei Igawa(R13), Colon, and Gustavo Chacin(R23).

Suttor easily rostered the best starting rotation, but he landed no closers and few good values on offense. Yes, guys like Bobby Crosby(R15) and Andy Marte(R18) could break out, however the decision to spend five of his first ten picks on starting pitchers created both a severe excess of top starters and an offense with a bunch of bottom-of-the-order hitters. In particular, an outfield of Young, Jose Guillen, Jay Gibbons, Rivera, and Owens may produce less total value than five outfielders on their own, a situation not helped by spending top picks on Derek Jeter(R1) and Joe Mauer($2), who offer great averages, along with a high likelihood of slumps after career years in 2006.

Summary: With six starters capable of seeing double-digit value, five of whom could exceed $15, Sutton should finish with plenty of points in wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. We also like his BA, but I see several holes on offense, especially regarding his power. Unless Justin Speier(R19) or Pat Neshek(R20) claims a closer's job in the near future, Sutton seems stuck in the middle of the pack at best.

Owner #7: Jack D'Ignoti
Site: Fantasy Sports R Us
Reserve roster: Darin Erstad, Brian N. Anderson, Billy Butler, Brandon Wood, and Horacio Ramirez.

Nice pick: Alex Gordon, R8; capable of clearing $20 without difficulty, Gordon seems a perfectly decent investment at this point of the draft.
Top sleeper: Roger Clemens, R15; despite outstanding potential, Clemens contributes nothing here if he signs with an NL team.
Potential bust: Josh Barfield, R7; departing San Diego for Cleveland doesn't offer Barfield a much better hitting environment, leaving him highly subject to a significant sophomore slump due to his questionable contact rate.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Other than Clemens, only Butler and Wood appear even reasonably likely to spend the first half in the minors. The youngsters drafted here qualify as excellent investments if injuries don't leave D'Ignoti with a lack of healthy players.
Early good/bad luck: Matt Garza(R14) lost a rotation spot to Sidney Ponson despite superb skills, Ramon Hernandez(R9) already appears hobbling, and Butler returned to the minors even though he already ranks among the Royals' best hitters. On the bright side, Anderson stayed in the majors, and John Danks(R18) at least might surprise after winning a starting slot in Chicago.
Category to trade: Saves, since Joe Nathan(R3) and Jon Papelbon(R4) could provided sufficient stats in a a half-season to solidify a few points in saves before returning a slew of talent if dealt.

High-risk/high-upside pitchers define this squad, led by Clemens, Garza, Papelbon, Danks, Brandon McCarthy(R21), Daniel Cabrera(R13), and Scott Kazmir(R5). Of that group, only McCarthy spent all of 2006 in the majors, and any attempt to grab replacement pitchers off the waiver wire will require cutting potentially outstanding sleepers like Butler and Wood. Selecting Justin Morneau in the second round also appears completely unjustified. I similarly don't like spending high picks on Nick Markakis(R6), Barfield, or Ramon Hernandez, though at least D'Ignoti doesn't suffer from any obvious offensive deficiencies.

Summary: No team appears better positioned for a second-half charge if D'Ignoti keeps Garza, Butler, and Wood while lucking into Clemens. However, he also needs strong seasons from a couple of Rookie of the Year candidates, a few guys looking to echo career years, and several injury-prone pitchers suffering from either control or homer problems. He'll need excellent luck to finish in the money.

Owner #8: Ray Flowers
Site: Sports Grumblings
Reserve roster: Jason Kendall, Brandon League, Esteban German, Fernando Cabrera, and Jeremy Accardo.

Nice pick: David DeJesus, R12; $20 outfielders with solid upside shouldn't fall this late in the draft.
Top sleeper: Esteban German, R25; he qualifies at three positions already and only needs a starting job to approach $20.
Potential bust: Miguel Tejada, R1; although selecting solid values in the next dozen rounds compensates for this pick, Tejada appeared no higher than the third round on our draft board. Grabbing him over Ichiro, Abreu, Tex, and Hafner seems pointless, especially when Flowers took Mike Young(R2) four picks later with Ichiro and Abreu still available.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): League's injury could sideline him indefinitely, though the pick made sense two weeks ago.
Early good/bad luck: Losing League isn't a big issue with Accardo on the roster, and Flowers only obtained Cliff Lee(R17) in such a late round due to his injury issues. While Joey Gathright(R16) headed to the minors, he only needs a Reggie Sanders trade to return to the Royals' bench.
Category to trade: Roster depth, specifically some of his half-dozen solid middle relievers and either Jorge Posada(R11) or Jason Kendall(R23), which could net Flowers a $20+ player from one of the clubs suffering from massive injuries and demotions.

I can't approve of selecting Tejada and Mike Young 1-2, but Flowers also grabbed starters at almost every position, four starters with $15 potential if Cliff Lee returns by May, and a superb group of relievers led by Mariano Rivera. Guys like Nick Swisher(R5), Macier Izturis(R15), and German provide plenty of position flexibility, and though a general lack of speed concerns me, a late spring promotion for Joey Gathright could solve that problem.

Summary: Despite the lack of a second current closer and rotation depth beyond his top four, Flowers landed a balanced roster capable of earning several points in every category. Anything less than an in-the-money finish for Flowers would surprise me.

Owner #9: Mike Kuchera
Site: Fantasy Baseball Express
Reserve roster: Ben Zobrist, Jay Payton, Danys Baez, Tony Pena, Jr., and Ryan Goleski.

Nice pick: J.D. Drew, R9; selecting Drew here qualifies as a great bay, and if he somehow stays healthy, he could provide the second power source needed to support Mark Teixeira(R1).
Top sleeper: Jason Kubel, R16; grabbing Casey Kotchman(R11) five rounds earlier simply wasn't a bargain, giving Kubel the overall edge in both upside and value.
Potential bust: Victor Martinez, R2; while we expect mild improvement from his 2006 numbers, Martinez still won't clear $25 under any circumstances, making him a definite overdraft, especially given the depth at the position since each of the ten teams only needs a single catcher.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Returning to the Indians as a failed Rule 5 pick zeroes Ryan Goleski's fantasy value. Glen Perkins(R24) also needs an injury in the majors to see much time above Triple-A.
Early good/bad luck: Losing Goleski and Perkins wasn't a big deal, and the injury to Chien-Ming Wang(R14) made him a fairly impressive bargain. The biggest news here involves the injury to Octavio Dotel(R10), which could cost Kuchera a bunch of saves unless Juan Salas(R18) emerges in Tampa fairly soon.
Category to trade: Batting average, particularly the BA provided by a middle infielder like Howie Kendrick(R5) or Ian Kinsler(R8).

Spending high picks to secure Felix Hernandez(R4) and Rich Harden(R6) illustrate the feast-or-famine nature of this team. If both AL West aces stay healthy, they could boost Kuchera to an excellent season despite the presence of only two other starters, Wang and Adam Loewen(R13). However, if either falters, Kuchera will scramble to make the 1000-IP minimum necessary to avoid finishing last. On the bright side, he obtained a loaded offense, featuring Melky Cabrera(R20) as the sole reserve in the starting lineup. Kuchera rostered a nice blend of established young veterans in their primes, high-upside rookies and sophomores, and a few guys who only need to stay healthy to contribute nice numbers.

Summary: Despite a small margin of error on the pitching side of equation, Kuchera at least possesses the impressive firepower on offense needed to contend, though he'll need a minimum of DL days from his veterans to stay in the first division.

Owner #10: Sandlot Shrink
Site: Steve Goldman
Reserve roster: Reggie Sanders, Casey Fossum, Jason Frasor, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Robinson Tejeda.

Nice pick: Corey Patterson, R10, and his $30 upside edges Eric Chavez(R8), who we drafted in round two last year, and Emil Brown(R18), who only needs to outplay Ross Gload to earn everyday at-bats.
Top sleeper: Fernando Rodney, R19; given Joel Zumaya's value in middle relief, Rodney remains the likely alternate if Todd Jones encounters further injury problems.
Potential bust: Jermaine Dye, R2; despite an MVP campaign a year ago and the strong incentive of approaching free agency, Dye appears likely to suffer from an expected general malaise in Chicago's offense. If he remains in the #3 hole, he also could see his RBI totals plummet with Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad fronting the lineup, making him a far riskier pick than a five-category contributor like Bobby Abreu.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Although Chad Orvella(R22) looked like a decent gamble two weeks ago, he appears a long way from deserving a fantasy roster spot at the moment.
Early good/bad luck: In addition to watching Orvella slide from a shot at closing all the way into the minors, Brown fell into a platoon with Gload and Reggie Sanders(R23) slipped out of the starting lineup altogether in Kansas City. However, Goldman also gambled on the good health of J.J. Putz(R6), and the Mariners' closer at least avoided the DL to begin the year.
Category to trade: Power, though if Lyle Overbay(R7) and Chavez don't see their RBI totals improve, a particularly worrisome issue for Overbay after his move to the #2 hole this year, Goldman probably should just keep his team intact for the season.

While we didn't target many of these players for our roster, we found ourselves saying "nice pick" more to Goldman's guys than the selections from any other owner. Yes, Dye appears risky at the top of the draft, but pairing Dye with Travis Hafner(R1) creates a superb offensive core, one further enhanced by the additions of Brian Roberts(R3), Orlando Cabrera(R4), Overbay, Chavez, and Patterson. Many of these players at least should contribute stats no worse than their 2006 numbers, and thanks to the lack of either any particularly old or young players, Goldman's roster seems full of save investments. A pitching staff fronted by Dan Haren(R5), Andy Pettitte(R9), Jose Contreras(R11), and Jon Garland(R15) also should keep him competitive on that side of the ledger, giving Goldman plenty of hope and faith, especially if he can add even one savvy free agent pick-up during the summer.

Summary: With an entire starting lineup of good values and a bench that at least adds desired depth, Goldman rostered the kind of balanced squad that inevitably spends all season near the top of the standings.

Due to drafting fairly balanced rosters, specifically focusing on obtaining plenty of quantitative support on offense, five teams currently appear likely to take the first division slots, specifically those squads managed by Steve Goldman, Mark Washburn, Ray Flowers, Patrick Luft, and our own Rotohelp roster, which we think can stay in contention throughout the summer. Mike Kuchera and Jason Suttor appear to fall just beyond the top quintet due to respectively heavy investments in hitting and pitching. Jack D'Ignoti's team looks like the real wild card as he could climb to the top if he receives strong contributions from Roger Clemens and a few current minor leaguers, though if Clemens stays in the NL and the prospects don't earn promotions, D'Ignoti will join Tim Dierkes and Ray McKelvie at the back of the pack due to each squad's significant lack of active players.

Today's Fantasy Rx: When drafting in leagues with heavy owner turnover, especially those hosted in standard chatrooms, consider preparing a couple of different sheets of draft values. For example, due to the multiple schedule changes for this year's FSIC drafts, we suspected someone might not show and printed values for both 11-team and 12-team leagues. Of course, when two owners failed to show, we briefly scrambled to recalculate prices for a 10-team league, but thanks to MS Excel, we adjusted without difficulty and enjoyed perhaps our best draft of the spring. While comparatively rarer in live drafts, we also have seen leagues where owners oversleep despite repeated phone calls and only arrive when everyone else already owns fifteen players. Prepping draft values for leagues of different sizes or at least keeping a computer handy to reset your prices remains the only way to protect your interests on these admittedly rare occasions.