Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing our approach to the 2007 FSICAL draft yesterday, we continue our look at inter-site drafts today with an examination of all the teams in the American League FSIC draft.

I'll discuss the teams in the order of first round picks. With two teams dropping out at the last second due to a rescheduled draft date and time, the owner drafting first in the snake also picked 20th & 21st, the second owner picked 19th and 22nd, etc.

Due to the unfathomable changes to TQ Stats in recent weeks, we unfortunately can't link you to the complete FSIC American League rosters this season, though we'll discuss the relevant players in each team comment.

Owner #1: Mark Washburn
Site: Roto Central
Reserve roster: Marcus Thames, Jeff Karstens, Joe Kennedy, Jason Michaels, and Willie Bloomquist.

Nice pick: B.J. Upton, R13; with a starting job at second for Tampa, Upton finally appears positioned to translate his superb tools into plenty of fantasy value.
Top sleeper: Brad Wilkerson, R17; if he earns an everyday job, he still owns the skills to clear $20.
Potential bust: Carlos Guillen, R3; while not a bad value if he stays healthy, his new contract gives him no incentive to remain in the lineup whenever possible.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None, though Scott Baker(R19) appears buried at the moment.
Early good/bad luck: If the Rays had cut Jorge Cantu a week earlier, Upton would have gone perhaps ten rounds higher, making him an outstanding bargain for Washburn. Scott Baker failed to make the Twins, and the DL stays for John Thomson and Jeff Karstens both appear set to last longer than expected.
Category to trade: Outfielders, thanks to a roster that includes Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez, Reed Johnson, Wilkerson, Thames, and Bloomquist.

Although selecting Dice-K in Round 4 strikes me as an overdraft, no team with a core of ARod and Ichiro will languish in the second division. Washburn rostered a superbly balanced offense with 10-point upside in all five categories. However, a rotation of Dice-K, Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Sowers, Joe Blanton, Tim Wakefield, and Joe Kennedy doesn't wow me, especially since he currently owns four pitchers on the DL. Chris Ray also constitutes his entire bullpen, leaving him lacking in both saves and both qualitative categories..

Summary: Despite a questionable pitching staff, Washburn possesses the depth and overall offensive upside to contend all season long.

Owner #2: Tim Dierkes
Site: Roto Authority
Reserve roster: Kevin Slowey, Kiko Calero, Adam Lind, Alexi Casilla, and Chris Shelton.

Nice pick: Luis Castillo, R11; the pending free agent could approach $30 if he avoids the DL, providing great upside outside of Round 10.
Top sleeper: Philip Hughes, $15; he looks like the best bet to hit double-digit value of the half-dozen prospects drafted here.
Potential bust: Bobby Jenks, R6; while not a bad bargain, Jenks ranks among the shakiest current AL closers.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): None at the moment, though Hughes, Slowey, Lind, Casilla, and Shelton all look likely to spend at least the first half in the minors.
Early good/bad luck: Al Reyes, R21, looks like the Rays' closer, but Dan Johnson and Esteban Loiaza both could miss a few weeks due to late injuries. Also, while Dierkes drafted a half-dozen intriguing youngsters, none of them broke camp in the majors.
Category to trade: High-upside prospects, which really doesn't offer much help in a single-season league. With only five reserve slots, Dierkes will need to cut at least three of J.P. Howell, Dan Johnson, Hughes, Slowey, Lind, Casilla, and Shelton just to field nine healthy pitchers and a full lineup.

We don't blame Dierkes for aggressively targeting top prospects in the second half of the draft, but every single rookie he grabbed opened the year in the minors. About half of his veteran position players also appear irritatingly injury-prone, leaving him little margin of error when he looks for help in FSIC's first free agent period next week. Although right now his core players seem solid, the fact that he only owns nineteen active players could create quantitative problems very quickly.

Summary: The star power of Santana and a Wells/Damon/Hunter outfield could carry him into the first division, but unless his prospects develop faster than expected, Dierkes seems set to finish closer to last than first.

Owner #3: Jess & Tim Polko
Site: Rotohelp
Reserve roster: Mike Sweeney, Jaret Wright, Fausto Carmona, Chris Reitsma, Julian Tavarez.

Nice pick: .
Top sleeper: .
Potential bust: Jorge Cantu, R8; already a bust after failing to make the majors, Cantu also appears unlikely to receive the trade he apparently needs to resecure a starting job.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): While we avoided any rookies other than Elijah Dukes, Cantu may not see the big leagues until September.
Early good/bad luck: Cantu again dominates this category, though J.J. Putz's current good health limits Chris Reitsma's value. The best news here involves Akinori Otsuka's current shot at closing with Eric Gagne disabled.
Category to trade: Steals and runs, a logical category of excess after drafting two leadoff men and a #3 hitter with our first three picks.

Nabbing both Bobby Abreu and Julio Lugo to complement Carl Crawford provides us a reasonable five-category foundation, though despite a focus on adding established position players, selecting Cantu may leave us a little short on power. A rotation of Jake Westbrook, Mark Buehrle, James Shields, Gil Meche, Paul Byrd, and Jaret Wright also won't impress many people. Hopefully rostering a bullpen of Huston Street, Otsuka, Mike MacDougal, Justin Duchscherer, and Chris Reitsma at least will insure a strong qualitative foundation.

Summary: Highlighted by our relatively soft-tossing starters, we don't see any categories where we should finish first aside from possibly steals and runs. The good news is we expect our cadre of low-risk/high-upside position players and veteran pitchers still will carry us to an in-the-money finish.

Owner #4: Ray McKelvie
Site: BBall Deluxe
Reserve roster: Mike Maroth, Joe Saunders, Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, and Hayden Penn.

Nice pick: Mike Piazza, R9; if he adapts to DH as expected, he should finish among the three most valuable AL catchers.
Top sleeper: Zach Greinke, R16; fully capable of earning $20 or $-10, Greinke appears far more likely to settle around $10, providing fairly decent value for this round.
Potential bust: Steve Trachsel, R17; given all these injuries to date, keeping Trachsel in the lineup full-time could really hurt qualitatively.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Josh Fields, R22, appears thoroughly buried for the White Sox, who appear content to keep him in reserve for when Joe Crede departs in free agency after 2008.
Early good/bad luck: Angel Berroa(R24) followed Fields to the minors, though injuries proved the bigger story here as Jered Weaver(R6), Eric Gagne(R7), Kenny Rogers(R15), and Greg Norton(R19) each opened the year on the DL. Both Rogers and Norton could miss much of the first half, and Hayden Penn(R27), a strong last-round gamble, failed to pick up the slack by slipping down to Triple-A.
Category to trade: A Red Sox slugger, since only dealing David Ortiz(R1) or Manny Ramirez(R2) appears likely to bring McKelvie sufficient depth to fill his holes.

Due to an apparent scheduling conflict, McKelvie left the draft after only six rounds, whereupon Mark Washburn of Team 1 drafted for him the rest of the way. Washburn actually left him a decent squad as several of the position players remain good building pieces, though none of them appears particularly likely to exceed their 2006 values. Losing Figgins, Norton, Berroa, and Fields without owning any reserve batters reduces the otherwise impressive offensive upside. On the pitching side of the ledger, a pitching staff that currently features Carl Pavano, Trachsel, Mike Maroth, Miguel Batista, and Carlos Silva could ruin these qualitative stats before Weaver even returns. Lastly, with only KRod and his magic cap joining Gagne in the bullpen, McKelvie lacks any saves upside beyond the sixty or so that KRod and Gagne should register if everything goes as planned for the two AL west closers.

Summary: With eight players unavailable, highlighted by the losses of Chone Figgins, Kenny Rogers, and Angel Berroa, McKelvie appears to lack the depth to compensate for his lack of high-upside players. I fear even settling into the middle of the pack seems an optimistic expectation for this squad, a reasonable fate considering McKelvie's failure to find someone other than a fellow owner to draft the last twenty-one rounds for him.

Owner #5: Patrick Luft
Site: Draft Help
Reserve roster: Roberto Hernandez, Mike Napoli, Gavin Floyd, Kevin Millar, and Pablo Ozuna.

Nice pick: Joe Borowski, R10; considering his base skill set, he should clear $20 without difficulty, which is why we regret passing on him in round 9.
Top sleeper: Scott Podsednik, R12; though Sammy Sosa(R14) tempts me here, only Podsedink could clear $30 from Luft's latter picks.
Potential bust: Nick Punto, R13; Seth McClung(R16) probably belonged here, but Punto appears highly likely to regress from his strong 2006 performance.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Aside from McClung, Floyd also may not see much time above Triple-A this summer.
Early good/bad luck: Watching McClung slip all the way into the minors here hurts, but at least Luft drafted two other decent closers. Floyd's demotion probably qualifies as a net bonus given his qualitative downside.
Category to trade: Aces, thanks to the selections of Roy Halladay(R3), Curt Schilling(R4), and Josh Beckett(R8).

Only drafting four big league starters could leave Luft short on wins, however he rostered a solid group of relievers that at least will results in strong finishes in saves, ERA, and WHIP. He also drafted almost exclusively veteran position players, along with the existing health concerns that accompany half his hitters. If Podsednik busts, a lack of speed and runs also could create problems, though at least he could post a strong BA thanks to the Vlad/Sheffield/IRod core.

Summary: While none of these picks wow me, Luft's overall roster seems strikingly solid and fully capable of contending well into the fall if his older players don't succumb to injury.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other five teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sun:@CHW(J.Contreras)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:STL(An.Reyes)
Ben Sheets: Sat:CHC(C.Zambrano)
Jake Peavy: Sun:COL(A.Cook)
Roy Halladay: Sun:@TB(S.Kazmir)
Brandon Webb: Sat:@WAS(J.Patterson)
Josh Beckett: No start.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: No start.
Dan Haren: Sat:@LAA(J.Lackey)
Jon Papelbon: 3 Road at TEX.
Rich Harden: No start.
Felix Hernandez: Sun:@CLE(F.Carmona)
Matt Cain: No start.

Oswalt, Sheets, Peavy, and Webb all look safe, and then due to weather concerns in the Midwest and the possibility of missed starts, we'll deploy Halladay and Haren, waiting for Papelbon until the Red Sox return home.

The Rockies' road trip necessitates an offensive rotation, which sends Iannetta, Kaz Matsui, Atkins, and Holliday to join Alex Rios on the bench. Josh Bard, Ian Kinsler, David Wright, and Hanley Ramirez take their lineup slots.

Rotohelp.com(11th lg; 257th overall)
Week 1b: April 6-April 8

C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Josh Bard		300
1B	Ryan Howard		1420
1B	Travis Hafner		1380
2B	Howie Kendrick		520 
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610
SS	Bill Hall		900
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	J.D. Drew		940
OF	Willy Taveras		860
OF	Rocco Baldelli		750
OF	Delmon Young		750
OF	Shane Victorino		560
DH	Albert Pujols		2050 
DH	Hanley Ramirez		1100

SP	Roy Oswalt		1550
SP	Ben Sheets		1220 
SP	Jake Peavy		1180
SP	Roy Halladay		1140
SP	Brandon Webb		1130 
SP	Dan Haren		940
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Joe Borowski		1110
RP	Jorge Julio		920

Total Week 1b Salary:		29990

Today's Fantasy Rx: Due to the inherent problem with employing a stars-and-scrubs strategy in a straight draft, rostering plenty of offense early remains the best method of distributing your risk. Failing to roster well over 300 RBI by the fifth round presents a significant obstacle to success, especially since you always can acquire a staff of relatively solid pitchers in the later rounds.