Today's Fantasy Rx

After spending yesterday monitoring thirteen different games, I've compiled the following notes from Opening Day 2007:

12:05pm(CDT): Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ New York Yankees

The game nearly followed the preferred media script as Carl Pavano struggled, both clubs ran wild, combining for six steals, the Rays' bullpen blew the lead, and ARod opened with three straight outs before contributing a single, scoring the go-ahead run, and then capping the Yankees' victory with a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth. However, Scott Kazmir didn't exactly excel, and Shawn Camp then lost the game for him thanks to hitting Melky Cabrera. The most significant fantasy implications here are Rocco Baldelli can run despite his injury, playing Baldelli at DH minimizes his health issues, and if Elijah Dukes stays hot, he could post superb numbers while playing center and hitting at the bottom of the order.

12:05pm(CDT): Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers

Both Halladay and Bonderman posted six solid innings, though rather than watching the Tigers run wild against Gregg Zaun, the Jays instead stole twice off IRod while no one even attempted a steal against Zaun. Jim Leyland executed perfectly, deploying Joel Zumaya for the seventh and eighth before turning to Todd Jones in the ninth, but the offense added nothing, providing Fernando Rodney the opportunity to lose the game in the tenth. Other than a station-to-station Toronto club stealing two bases off the best all-around catcher in history, the other fantasy key is that the two RBIs from Alex Rios illustrate that he could post a strong follow-up batting behind a bunch of solid OBP sources in Overbay, Wells, Thomas, and Glaus.

12:05pm(CDT): Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Don't expect Charlie Manuel to keep Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in that order, though I could see a decent argument for hitting Shane Victorino between the two All-Stars. At least Manuel kept Victorino second, reinforcing our belief that he'll post superb numbers in 2007. Of course, the Phillies, despite an impressive performance from Brett Myers, weren't the story here. Two homers from Edgar Renteria, one each in the eighth and tenth inning, truly decided the game, and also allowed Bob Wickman, still shockingly underrated with many owners looking toward a future with Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano closing, to vulture a win with a decent inning of work. Wickman remains a decent sleeper for now, so if you need a closer, go get him now before he rattles off a half-dozen saves in the next couple of weeks. As long as he remains healthy, he should take full advantage of an excellent environment for saves in Atlanta.

12:05pm(CDT): Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals

When the Marlins, who we expected to suffer a team-wide sophomore slump at the plate, can destroy a Washington pitching staff to the tune of a 9-2 victory against purported ace John Patterson on Opening Day, the Nats appear stuck suffering a long, long season. Of course, a Miguel Cabrera homer proved the impetus to chase Patterson, but the three runs then added to the tally courtesy of Rule 5 pick Levale Speigner and former Braves' prospect Micah Bowie certainly didn't help matters. Meanwhile the Florida bullpen, recently solidified with the Jorge Julio acquisition, contributed three almost-perfect innings, one each by Randy Messenger, Henry Owens, and Jorge Julio. The biggest ramifications from this game involve the injuries to Nook Logan and Cristian Guzman, which appear likely to elevate Kory Casto and either Josh Wilson or Ron Belliard into starting jobs for the next couple of weeks.

1:05pm(CDT): Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

The Dodgers clearly lack a decent offense, but Ben Sheets made them look silly with a two-hitter on Opening Day. He only needed 104 pitches, and if not for a Jeff Kent bomb and a ninth inning double from pinch-hitter Brady Clark, could have really stunned the Milwaukee faithful. Meanwhile the Brewers' offense clearly gelled as J.J. Hardy reached base four times in the #2 hole. We expect the Brewers to contend all season, and if Los Angeles can't get better performances from guys like Derrek Lowe, the Dodgers could slip far back of the NL West pack. If Rafael Furcal's injury proves serious, they could finish April last in the division, causing major problems for all the owners that invested in their pitchers hoping for a bunch of wins.

1:10pm(CDT): Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

In the bottom of the first, Ryan Freel walked and Adam Dunn cranked a two-run homer. The next two innings passed with little fanfare, and in the bottom of the third, Freel singled, got caught trying to take second on the overthrow to first, and then watched from the bench as Dunn blasted another shot over the fence. Aaron Harang didn't need the extra three runs the Reds added as he allowed just an unearned run and eight baserunners over seven innings before Kirk Saarloos and David Weathers closed out the Cubs. While Chicago remains dependent on production from their stars, a curious situation with the OBP-challenged Alfonso Soriano continuing to hit leadoff, Cincinnati instead fielded perhaps the deepest lineup in the league. The Reds' new order featured the speedy Freel first, followed by the multi-talented Dunn, and then former stud prospect Brandon Phillips. With Ken Griffey, Edwin Encarnacion, Scott Hatteberg, Alex Gonzalez, and David Ross completing the lineup, we could see six of these guys approaching $20 of they remain healthy. Only Hatteberg and Ross appear likely to offer relatively little to roto teams, and if Jerry Narron sticks with the new lineup, which appears to maximize the strengths of each player, I suspect the Reds will vastly exceed my rather pessimistic pre-season opinion of their offense.

1:05pm(CDT): Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox

We just kept looking at the scoreboard and laughing here, especially while listening to Hawk Harrelson explain that the AL Central is really tough because of the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox, completely dissing an Indians' squad that proved from their first at-bat that they could handle a Chicago squad that needs every possible break to contend. Sizemore homered right of the bat, beginning a sequence which saw Cleveland post five runs in the first, four more in the second, and two more in the third, placing Chicago at an 11-2 disadvantage after two-and-a-half innings. While Andy Sisco pitched a couple of decent innings in the middle of the game, Jose Contreras and Nick Masset simply embarrassed the ballclub even as C.C. Sabathia ignored his injury issues to pitch six solid frames. Yes, the Indians received no homers outside of Sizemore's blast, but the top seven batters in the lineup scored and six guys drove home at least one run.

We really like the offensive balance provided by additions like Trot Nixon and David Dellucci, as well as a refurbished bullpen led by Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, and Aaron Fultz. That trio of relievers doesn't really impress anyone, but each of them owns solid skills and seems superbly matched with Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera, Jason Davis, and when healthy, Matt Miller. The Indians added a bunch of depth this winter for very little cost and still possess the prospects necessary to swing a major deadline deal. Treating this team as anything other than a likely division champion and plausible pennant winner just strikes me as nonsensical.

3:05pm(CDT): Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

Starters Brandon Webb and Aaron Cook respectively finished first and third in the NL in ground-fly ratio last year. Webb even rode his groundball ways to the Cy Young award, yet they combined to allow seventeen hits and seven walks in eleven innings of work, suggesting that just maybe the humidor won't continue to suppress scoring. Other than a LaTroy Hawkins disaster, the relievers fared much better as Jose Valverde in particular impressed with a three-strikeout save. The Diamondbacks and Rockies respectively feature the best young offenses in the league, and thanks to hitter-friendly home parks, could beat up each others' pitchers on many occasions this year, leaving only a half-dozen hurler worth owning between both clubs. Conversely, every single position player on both squads, aside from possibly John Mabry and Robby Hammock, belongs on roto rosters. The Willy Taveras-Kaz Matsui punch particularly intrigues me, especially since I now believe I lowballed the projections for both players. While Taveras won't continue his 162-steal pace, I won't be surprised if he leads the NL in roto value with Masui finally fulfilling three-year-old expectations of $20+ fantasy glory.

3:10pm(CDT): Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

Easily the best game story of the day, widely reviled $55M man allowed the mighty Boston offense just seven baserunners and a single run in more than seven innings of work while the Royals' revamped attack chased new blogger Curt Schilling after four frames and five runs allowed. Though Alex Gordon didn't get his first hit, Mark Grudzielanek not only avoided the DL but had three hits, three RBI, and two runs scored. Kansas City will continue to score plenty this year, and Boston also soon will rebound. However, few members of the Red Sox relief corps merit active roster spots right now. We also cleary underestimated Gil Meche, who we happily drafted in one of the many leagues where he received little respect. Perhaps he'll only finish with a couple bucks of value, but he at least should post a strikeout total to make him a mandatory weekly play in all 5x5 leagues.

5:35pm(CDT): Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

A couple of errors from the increasingly overrated Bobby Crosby led to four unearned runs for Dan Haren and an Opening Day loss for the Athletics. Of course, no one cares about Oakland's pitchers when King Felix allowed just five baserunners in an Opening Day masterpiece featuring twelve strikeouts and zero runs. The fact Mike Hargrove, a lame duck manager making every effort to save his job, let his young ace total 111 pitches in the first game of the season also really scares us. Given this performance, we won't be surprised if Felix exceeds 120 pitches by the end of the month and hits 130 pitches by summer, lending further credence to the Dwight Gooden comparison. With a club very unlikely to contend, nothing else matters for the Mariners other than keeping Felix healthy, and though we hope that manage that task, we're glad we don't own in any keeper leagues after seeing his workload yesterday.

6:05pm(CDT): Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

Our decision to avoid Salomon Torres already looks a little silly, but we're glad to see Xavier Nady justify our pre-season belief of a forthcoming breakout. Brad Lidge's disaster helped obscure excellent starts from both Roy Oswalt and Zack Duke, though the latter couldn't manage a single strikeout despite facing Adam Everett in the #2 hole. Far more than an uncertain bullpen, Houston's fate in 2007 will rest on Phil Garner's ability to maximize runs from an offense featuring effective ciphers in half the lineup spots. Deploying Luke Scott on Opening Day seems promising, but when coupled with Everett in the #2 hole and potential OBP gods Morgan Ensberg and Scott buried in #5/6, right ahead of nominal #2 hitter Chris Burke, we can't foresee a particularly productive summer for the Astros' bats. On the bright side, at least Oswalt gives them a chance to win every five days, and since Lidge's skills remain solid, consider making a play for him now while his owners gaze longingly at Dan Wheeler.

6:05pm(CDT): Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

Three years ago Santana won just two of his first twelve starts. In 2005 he won his first three games and five of his first seven, but then last season he opened 0-3 with a no-decision before winning four straight. Keeping that pattern intact, he triumphed yesterday despite a fairly mediocre outing as the Twins' superb bullpen simply iced the last three innings of the game. The fact that Baltimore entered the game with just twelve offensive players certainly contributed to Minnesota's win, though we still expect both clubs to disappoint this summer. Jason Tyner's steal as a pinch-runner for DH Jeff Cirillo might provide the most benefit for fantasy owners since regular work in that role could help Tyner amass double-digit value despite his complete lack of power.

9:05pm(CDT): Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

The evening game featured mediocre yet mostly effective performance from Kevin Millwood and John Lackey, though the latter pitcher emerged the victor by virtue of spreading out eight Rangers' baserunners instead of matching Millwood's three earned runs on seven baserunners. Fundamentals also played a primary role as Kenny Lofton stole two bases, Mike Napoli retaliated with a steal of his own, and Shea Hillenbrand got into the act by getting caught twice. Napoli also committed one of four errors, two by each team, while youngsters Ian Kinsler and Casey Kotchman each jacked a solo shot. We still expect the Rangers to emerge triumphant in the division, but with Oakland's offense in shambles due to injury, the Angels should remain good competition for Texas well into the fall.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Bonus Opening Night Review: 7PM(CDT): New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals. Although the game started with a couple of quiet innings, Tom Glavine remained his normal effective self while Chris Carpenter allowed the Mets to build rallies leading to a couple of runs in the third and three more in the fourth. Glavine and four relievers, highlighted by the major league debut of sidearming 2006 third rounder Joe Smith, allowed just a single run, easily handling the reigning World Champions and serving notice that their fluke NLCS loss last fall wouldn't keep them from returning to the playoffs this year. While we recognize that New York still needs to find firm third and fourth starters while keeping Glavine and Orlando Hernandez healthy, no NL club fields a deeper lineup, bench, 25-man, or 40-man roster. If Omar Minaya manages to exchange someone like Carlos Gomez for a Jason Jennings, Mark Buehrle, or even Dontrelle Willis, we see no reason the Mets won't remain out of first place for many more days this season.