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March 29th 2007 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Our Philosophy |
by Tim Polko Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here. The file also includes position eligibility data based upon the standard 20 game minimum. The Draft Values presented below only apply to NL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a .2608 BA as the baseline value necessary to calculate the BA Category Dollars. Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each hitter, and then our Scoresheet projections adjust that RAR to consider each player's defensive rating in that format. While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen players who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 323 National League batters with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2007 spring draft.
Top 3 AL 5x5 Batters: Albert Pujols, $51; Miguel Cabrera, $47; David Wright, $43. Top 3 Sim Batters: Albert Pujols, 83.3 RAR; Miguel Cabrera, 72.1 RAR; Lance Berkman, 65.5 RAR. Top 3 Scoresheet Batters: Albert Pujols, 94.1 ARAR; Carlos Beltran, 66.8 ARAR; Lance Berkman, 63.5 ARAR.
C: Russ Martin, Chris Snyder. 1B: Xavier Nady, Conor Jackson. 3B: Wilson Betemit, Jose Bautista. 2B: Chris Burke, Jose Castillo. SS: Khalil Greene, Cesar Izturis. OF: Willy Taveras, Shane Victorino, Scott Hairston, Ryan Langerhans, Terrmel Sledge. Top 3 Batters who could beat this projection with more AB: Chris Duffy, Kaz Matsui, Lastings Milledge. "Cheap" speed that should not cost this much: Ryan Theriot, Nate McLouth, Alfredo Amezaga. Top 3 "$1" Catchers: Carlos Ruiz, Chris Snyder, Yorvit Torrealba. Top 2007 NL Batter Sleeper: Shane Victorino, $22/$22. While often shoehorned into the role of a fourth outfielder in the minds of many fantasy analysts, Victorino appears Philadelphia's outfielder most likely to play every day considering Jason Werth and Michael Bourn comprise the logical alternatives. Continued rumors regarding an Aaron Rowand trade further support the idea that Victorino will play every day, giving him tremendous upside as the likely #2 hitter between leadoff man Jimmy Rollins and Philadelphia's heart-of-the-order, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell. Off-season reports also indicate that the Phillies want Victorino to run, and since he twice exceeded 44 steals in the minors, I see nothing preventing him from resuming his basestealing ways. Perhaps he will not emerge as a roto stud until 2008, after he turns 26 in November, but given the negligible buzz surrounding someone capable of clearing 100 runs, Victorino looks like a great investment, who only should cost you around $15 in most leagues.
Batter 4x4$ 5x5$ RAR ARAR Abercrombie, Reggie -2 -3 -0.2 -0.2 Abreu, Tony -2 -2 -0.1 -0.1 Alfonzo, Eliezer -3 -3 -5.2 -6.0 Alomar, Jr., Sandy -2 -3 -1.5 -2.2 Alou, Moises 12 11 9.2 3.7 Amezaga, Alfredo 3 2 -5.7 -5.7 Anderson, Drew -2 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Anderson, Josh -2 -3 -1.2 -1.2 Anderson, Marlon 5 4 4.8 3.0 Andino, Robert -2 -3 -1.1 -1.1 Ankiel, Rick -3 -3 -0.9 -0.9 Ardoin, Danny -4 -4 -1.6 -1.6 Atkins, Garrett 32 31 36.3 29.1 Aurilia, Rich 8 8 11.7 4.0 Ausmus, Brad -7 -6 -15.8 -12.1 Aybar, Willy 4 3 1.2 0.2 Baker, Jeff 4 3 2.3 1.4 Barajas, Rod 2 2 -1.0 2.5 Bard, Josh 9 9 9.4 7.7 Barden, Brian -2 -3 -1.3 -1.3 Barmes, Clint -1 -1 0.2 1.0 Barrett, Michael 13 12 18.6 11.2 Bautista, Jose 4 5 -4.3 -8.8 Bay, Jason 37 36 54.7 47.4 Bellhorn, Mark -4 -4 -3.3 -2.5 Belliard, Ron 3 2 1.9 1.9 Beltran, Carlos 29 30 50.9 66.8 Bennett, Gary -3 -3 -5.3 -6.8 Berkman, Lance 41 39 63.5 63.5 Betemit, Wilson 5 6 0.2 3.0 Bigbie, Larry -2 -3 -1.1 -1.1 Biggio, Craig 0 2 -4.4 -9.2 Bixler, Brian -2 -3 -0.6 -0.6 Blanco, Gregor -2 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Blanco, Henry -2 -3 -5.0 -1.8 Blum, Geoff -4 -3 -5.1 -6.6 Bonds, Barry 11 12 35.9 29.8 Boone, Aaron 1 1 -8.3 -9.1 Borchard, Joe -2 -2 -2.8 -3.6 Bourn, Michael 1 1 -1.3 -1.3 Bowen, Rob -1 -1 0.2 0.2 Branyan, Russ 1 1 5.1 3.2 Braun, Ryan 3 3 3.3 3.3 Broadway, Larry -3 -3 -2.5 -2.5 Bruntlett, Eric -1 -2 0.6 0.6 Budde, Ryan -3 -4 -1.0 -1.0 Burke, Chris 13 14 6.2 2.8 Burrell, Pat 15 16 33.2 25.5 Byrnes, Eric 24 23 15.6 19.6 Cabrera, Miguel 49 47 72.1 62.0 Callaspo, Alberto 9 9 4.8 4.8 Cameron, Mike 20 20 18.0 29.5 Carroll, Jamey 7 7 3.0 4.6 Carter, Chris -3 -3 -0.7 -0.7 Castillo, Jose 8 8 4.8 -0.3 Casto, Kory 1 2 -2.6 -2.6 Castro, Bernie -2 -3 -1.1 -1.1 Castro, Juan 1 0 -1.1 3.8 Castro, Ramon -1 -1 2.2 4.0 Cedeno, Ronny -2 -2 -6.1 -6.8 Chavez, Endy 8 7 0.3 2.0 Church, Ryan 8 8 6.9 7.8 Clark, Brady 6 6 2.4 6.0 Clark, Doug -2 -3 -0.2 -0.2 Clark, Tony 0 0 -4.6 -5.5 Closser, J.D. -3 -4 0.1 0.1 Coats, Buck -3 -3 -2.7 -2.7 Colina, Alvin -3 -3 -0.4 -0.4 Conine, Jeff 2 2 -10.6 -11.5 Conrad, Brooks -3 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Coste, Chris 1 0 1.2 1.2 Cota, Humberto -5 -5 -4.6 -4.6 Counsell, Craig -3 -2 -9.8 -5.3 Crosby, Bubba -2 -3 -1.2 -1.2 Cruz, Jr., Jose 0 1 2.8 2.8 Cruz, Luis -3 -3 0.1 0.1 DaVanon, Jeff 5 5 1.1 1.9 Davis, Rajai -2 -3 -1.3 -1.3 De Aza, Alejandro 9 9 -8.7 -8.7 de la Rosa, Tomas -3 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Delgado, Carlos 25 25 33.1 27.8 Denorfia, Chris 8 7 4.1 5.0 DeRosa, Mark 6 7 4.8 4.8 Diaz, Einar -3 -4 -1.2 -1.2 Diaz, Matt 12 11 5.5 3.7 DiFelice, Mike -4 -4 -1.7 -1.7 Dobbs, Greg -1 -1 -1.1 -1.1 Doumit, Ryan 0 0 1.2 2.0 Drew, Stephen 20 19 22.8 20.1 Duffy, Chris 14 13 -4.8 0.3 Duncan, Chris 7 7 7.0 2.5 Dunn, Adam 9 11 27.3 17.0 Durham, Ray 16 16 22.0 14.6 Easley, Damion -6 -5 -3.0 -5.2 Eckstein, David 14 15 4.1 7.4 Edmonds, Jim 12 13 19.3 28.0 Eldred, Brad 1 0 -0.6 -1.5 Ellison, Jason 3 3 -2.0 -1.1 Encarnacion, Edwin 15 15 10.9 5.1 Encarnacion, Juan 17 17 10.7 10.7 Ensberg, Morgan 14 14 22.7 24.7 Escobar, Alex 1 0 2.6 3.5 Esposito, Brian -4 -4 -1.9 -1.9 Estrada, Johnny 7 7 0.4 0.4 Ethier, Andre 8 7 2.3 0.6 Everett, Adam 3 4 -1.8 13.8 Feliz, Pedro 4 6 -16.5 -6.6 Fick, Rob -2 -2 -1.1 -2.7 Fielder, Prince 11 13 -0.6 -6.2 Finley, Steve 6 6 5.4 6.4 Flores, Jesus -3 -4 -2.6 -2.6 Floyd, Cliff 13 12 16.3 13.4 Franco, Julio 0 0 -6.0 -6.0 Francoeur, Jeff 16 16 4.5 0.1 Frandsen, Kevin -1 -1 -6.0 -5.2 Freel, Ryan 17 17 1.1 3.7 Furcal, Rafael 29 28 25.2 33.3 Gall, John -3 -4 -1.2 -1.2 Garciaparra, Nomar 22 22 14.8 17.9 Gil, Geronimo -3 -3 -0.4 -0.4 Gil, Jerry -3 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Giles, Brian 15 16 16.9 14.2 Giles, Marcus 21 21 27.5 34.1 Gomez, Alexis 0 -1 1.3 1.3 Gomez, Carlos -1 -2 -0.6 -0.6 Gonzalez, Adrian 21 21 15.0 16.0 Gonzalez, Alex 9 10 9.7 17.6 Gonzalez, Carlos -2 -3 0.0 0.0 Gonzalez, Luis 11 12 10.5 4.3 Gotay, Ruben -3 -4 -1.0 -1.0 Graffanino, Tony 3 4 2.2 4.7 Green, Shawn 9 9 7.9 4.3 Greene, Khalil 10 10 18.1 18.1 Greene, Todd -2 -3 -0.1 -0.9 Griffey, Jr., Ken 7 8 8.5 7.6 Gross, Gabe 5 5 9.7 9.7 Guzman, Cristian -3 -1 -11.1 -11.1 Gwynn, Anthony -1 -2 -1.6 -1.6 Hairston, Scott 5 5 6.9 6.0 Hall, Bill 24 24 42.9 42.9 Hamilton, Josh 3 3 -4.6 -4.6 Hammock, Robby -1 -2 -0.4 -0.4 Hardy, J.J. 0 1 3.3 0.9 Harris, Willie -2 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Hart, Corey 17 17 7.0 6.1 Hatteberg, Scott 6 6 -5.4 -7.2 Hawpe, Brad 13 13 17.6 10.2 Helms, Wes 11 11 8.8 0.1 Helton, Todd 25 24 31.3 36.6 Hermida, Jeremy 12 11 9.2 9.2 Hernandez, Anderson -2 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Hernandez, Jose -2 -3 -8.8 -8.8 Holliday, Matt 30 30 37.2 35.1 Hoover, Paul -3 -4 -1.1 -1.1 Hopper, Norris -1 -1 -2.8 -2.8 Howard, Ryan 26 26 36.6 32.4 Hudson, Orlando 11 11 12.1 24.8 Iannetta, Chris 6 6 14.6 12.7 Ishikawa, Travis -2 -3 -0.7 -0.7 Izturis, Cesar 3 4 0.0 3.2 Jackson, Conor 16 17 5.4 3.5 Jacobs, Mike 4 5 -10.4 -14.0 Jaramillo, Jason -3 -3 0.1 0.1 Jenkins, Geoff 13 14 21.5 19.6 Jimenez, D'Angelo -4 -4 -1.4 -1.4 Johnson, Ben 1 0 -0.2 -0.2 Johnson, Kelly 6 7 5.4 5.4 Johnson, Nick 10 10 16.6 17.6 Jones, Andruw 23 24 34.3 47.4 Jones, Brandon -1 -2 1.7 1.7 Jones, Chipper 22 22 29.7 21.5 Jones, Jacque 16 16 7.3 5.4 Kearns, Austin 11 12 17.2 18.1 Kelly, Don -2 -3 -0.8 -0.8 Kemp, Matt 1 1 0.6 0.6 Kennedy, Adam 19 19 8.3 11.0 Kent, Jeff 17 16 26.8 19.3 Keppinger, Jeff -1 -2 -0.5 -0.5 Klesko, Ryan 4 4 7.4 3.0 Knoedler, Justin -4 -4 -1.7 -1.7 Koshansky, Joe -2 -3 0.0 0.0 Koskie, Corey -2 -3 0.7 0.7 Kouzmanoff, Kevin 15 15 5.4 5.4 Krynzel, David -2 -3 -1.9 -1.9 La Roche, Andy 1 0 0.4 0.4 Laforest, Pete -3 -3 -0.4 -0.4 Lamb, Mike 7 7 1.0 0.0 Lane, Jason -1 0 2.3 -1.2 Langerhans, Ryan 4 4 7.9 7.9 LaRoche, Adam 6 8 -3.6 -5.4 Lee, Carlos 28 27 27.5 17.9 Lee, Derrek 26 26 26.7 34.0 Lewis, Fred -2 -2 -0.6 -0.6 Lieberthal, Mike -1 -1 -2.0 -2.0 Linden, Todd 2 2 1.3 -0.4 Lo Duca, Paul 11 11 4.1 -1.8 Logan, Nook 5 5 -3.3 1.8 Loney, James 6 5 2.2 2.2 Lopez, Felipe 19 19 4.9 -7.7 Loretta, Mark 9 9 5.7 9.2 Mabry, John -1 -2 -3.5 -5.3 Marrero, Eli -3 -4 -2.3 -2.3 Martin, Russ 11 11 7.1 7.1 Martinez, Ramon E. -1 -2 0.7 -0.9 Matos, Luis 0 -1 -2.5 -1.6 Matsui, Kazuo 13 12 4.3 6.0 McAnulty, Paul -3 -3 -2.4 -2.4 McCann, Brian 22 21 27.7 24.8 McCutchen, Andrew -2 -2 -1.4 -1.4 McLouth, Nate 3 3 -2.9 -2.0 Mench, Kevin 6 6 5.0 1.4 Miles, Aaron 1 2 2.9 -1.8 Milledge, Lastings 7 6 4.5 2.7 Miller, Corky -3 -3 0.1 0.1 Miller, Damian 1 0 3.5 3.5 Moeller, Chad -4 -4 -4.1 -5.6 Molina, Ben 5 5 -0.3 0.5 Molina, Yadier 0 0 -5.2 5.8 Montero, Miguel 2 2 1.4 0.5 Moore, Scott -2 -3 -0.5 -0.5 Morton, Colt -2 -3 0.1 0.1 Munson, Eric -3 -4 -1.2 -1.2 Murton, Matt 9 9 4.5 3.6 Nady, Xavier 18 17 2.1 5.1 Newhan, David -2 -3 -4.4 -4.4 Niekro, Lance -1 -2 -3.1 -2.2 Nix, Laynce -1 -2 -1.7 -0.8 Nunez, Abraham O. -2 -1 -12.6 -10.9 Olivo, Miguel -2 -1 -10.9 -4.4 Orr, Pete -1 -2 -1.4 -1.4 Pagan, Angel -1 -2 -0.3 -0.3 Palmeiro, Orlando 0 -1 -1.8 -2.6 Patterson, Eric -2 -3 -0.9 -0.9 Paulino, Ronny 10 9 7.0 8.8 Pena, Brayan 0 -1 -3.3 -3.3 Pence, Hunter 0 0 1.8 1.8 Perez, Miguel -3 -4 -1.2 -1.2 Perez, Tomas -4 -4 -1.5 -1.5 Phillips, Brandon 16 15 5.6 3.8 Pie, Felix 1 0 -0.3 -0.3 Pierre, Juan 35 33 -8.1 0.5 Prado, Martin -2 -3 -1.8 -1.8 Pujols, Albert 53 51 83.3 94.1 Quentin, Carlos 9 10 10.0 7.3 Quintanilla, Omar -2 -3 0.3 0.3 Quintero, Humberto -3 -3 -3.5 -3.5 Ramirez, Aramis 29 29 34.6 22.2 Ramirez, Hanley 32 32 19.3 12.3 Reed, Eric -2 -3 -2.5 -1.7 Renteria, Edgar 19 19 20.8 15.6 Repko, Jason -2 -3 -0.9 -0.9 Restovich, Mike -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Reyes, Jose 44 43 27.2 22.7 Richar, Danny -2 -3 0.0 0.0 Rivera, Mike -2 -3 -0.6 -1.4 Roberson, Chris 0 -1 -1.1 -1.1 Roberts, Dave 21 21 4.2 7.7 Robles, Oscar -3 -4 -0.7 -0.7 Rodriguez, John 1 0 2.0 1.1 Rodriguez, Mike -2 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Rolen, Scott 27 27 28.7 40.5 Rollins, Jimmy 31 31 32.8 28.2 Romero, Alex -1 -2 0.8 0.8 Roriguez, Guillermo -3 -4 -1.0 -1.0 Ross, Cody 1 1 0.9 0.9 Ross, Dave 1 1 8.8 13.6 Rottino, Vinny -1 -2 -2.1 -2.1 Rowand, Aaron 12 12 3.5 9.8 Ruiz, Carlos 6 6 7.1 7.1 Saenz, Olmedo 3 2 1.7 -0.2 Salazar, Jeff -2 -2 0.4 0.4 Saltalamacchia, Jarrod -3 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Sanchez, Freddy 12 12 9.2 4.3 Sandoval, Danny -3 -4 -0.9 -0.9 Santos, Chad -3 -3 -1.2 -1.2 Schneider, Brian 2 2 -3.8 2.9 Schumaker, Skip -2 -3 -0.5 -0.5 Scott, Luke 12 12 17.6 14.8 Sledge, Terrmel 4 5 3.2 1.5 Snelling, Chris 2 2 2.0 1.1 Snyder, Chris 1 0 0.3 2.0 Soriano, Alfonso 36 36 30.1 31.1 Soto, Geovany -2 -3 0.3 0.3 Spiezio, Scott 2 2 -2.3 -5.9 Spilborghs, Ryan 5 4 3.7 3.7 Stewart, Ian -2 -3 0.5 0.5 Stinnett, Kelly -3 -4 -1.0 -1.0 Sullivan, Cory 0 -1 1.8 1.8 Sweeney, Mark 0 -1 -1.7 -0.8 Taguchi, So 5 5 -0.4 0.4 Tatis, Fernando -3 -4 -1.7 -1.7 Taveras, Willy 36 34 5.5 14.5 Theriot, Ryan 10 10 3.5 3.5 Thorman, Scott 7 7 5.6 2.9 Torrealba, Yorvit 1 1 -1.0 0.7 Tracy, Chad 26 26 26.4 22.4 Treanor, Matt -3 -4 -3.9 -2.4 Tulowitzki, Troy 6 8 10.9 9.2 Uggla, Dan 7 9 1.4 -2.8 Utley, Chase 29 29 39.8 50.9 Valdez, Wilson -4 -5 -2.4 -2.4 Valentin, Javier 3 3 4.7 6.5 Valentin, Jose 4 4 5.2 8.8 Victorino, Shane 22 22 10.2 12.9 Vizquel, Omar 11 12 1.5 11.2 Votto, Joey 4 3 2.8 2.8 Ward, Daryle 2 1 7.8 6.8 Weeks, Rickie 17 18 5.5 -4.4 Werth, Jayson 2 2 0.5 0.5 Willingham, Josh 8 8 15.1 4.3 Wilson, Craig 5 5 -2.6 -2.6 Wilson, Jack 11 12 7.9 19 Wilson, Josh -2 -3 -1.5 -1.5 Wilson, Preston 14 14 8.9 9.8 Winn, Randy 16 16 5.7 9.3 Wood, Jason -3 -4 -1.8 -1.8 Woodward, Chris -3 -3 -1.9 -4.1 Wright, David 45 43 43.2 36.8 Young, Chris B. 13 15 8.1 13.6 Young, Delwyn -2 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Young, Dmitri 1 2 -14 -17 Zimmerman, Ryan 21 21 -1.9 -1
Tomorrow we will post and review our AL pitcher projections.
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