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March 28th 2007 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Our Philosophy |
by Tim Polko Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here. The file also includes position eligibility data based upon the standard 20 game minimum. The Draft Values presented below only apply to AL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a .266 BA as the baseline value necessary to calculate the BA Category Dollars. Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each hitter, and then our Scoresheet projections adjust that RAR to consider each player's defensive rating in that format. While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen players who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 301 American League batters with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2007 spring draft.
Top 3 AL 5x5 Batters: Alex Rodriguez, $50; Ichiro Suzuki, $43; Carl Crawford, $41. Top 3 Sim Batters: Alex Rodriguez, 62.4 RAR; David Ortiz, 60.4 RAR; Manny Ramirez, 57.0 RAR. Top 3 Scoresheet Batters: Mark Teixeira, 60.8 ARAR; Alex Rodriguez, 58.2 ARAR; Travis Hafner, 44.0 ARAR.
C: Dioner Navarro, John Buck. 1B: Ryan Shealy, Dan Johnson. 3B: Hank Blalock, Mark Teahen, Maicer Izturis. 2B: Jorge Cantu, Howie Kendrick. SS: Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist. OF: Rocco Baldelli, David DeJesus, Nelson Cruz, Jeremy Reed. Top 3 Batters who could beat this projection with more AB: B.J. Upton, Esteban German, Adam Lind. "Cheap" speed that should not cost this much: Esteban German, Maicer Izturis, Willie Bloomquist. Top 3 "$1" Catchers: John Buck, Mike Redmond, Kelly Shoppach. Top 2007 AL Batter Sleeper: Hank Blalock, $27/$26. While I considered several candidates for this slot, most notably Jhonny Peralta, Jorge Cantu, and Rocco Baldelli, Blalock simply seems the best bet to reclaim his former fantasy glory. Despite possessing more than four years of big league experience, he just turned 26 in November, and after the stifling presence of Buck Showalter, Ron Washington seems the perfect catalyst for Blalock's reemergence as a legitimate MVP candidate. With decent skills, the best hitters' park in the league, a division fairly bereft of competent southpaw starters, and most importantly, plenty of RBI opportunities thanks to a lineup slot behind Mike Young and Mark Teixeira, Blalock merits a significant investment in every AL fantasy league.
Batter 4x4$ 5x5$ RAR ARAR Abreu, Bobby 44 41 41.5 36.5 Adams, Russ 2 3 1.5 -0.9 Anderson, Brian 2 3 -1.6 2.0 Anderson, Garret 3 3 -7.8 -9.5 Arias, Joaquin 1 1 -1.1 -1.1 Aubrey, Michael -1 -1 -0.5 -0.5 Aybar, Erick 6 5 -3.4 -3.4 Bako, Paul -6 -5 -7.7 -7.0 Baldelli, Rocco 31 29 21.6 28.7 Balentien, Wladimir 0 0 0.0 0.0 Bankston, Wes -1 -1 -0.5 -0.5 Barfield, Josh 5 6 -2.1 -2.1 Bartlett, Jason 16 15 0.6 9.9 Barton, Daric 1 1 0.7 0.7 Beltre, Adrian 12 13 15.0 26.3 Berroa, Angel 1 1 -2.2 -3.0 Betancourt, Yuniesky 15 15 -2.5 -7.4 Blake, Casey 7 8 3.6 1.8 Blalock, Hank 27 26 25.6 29.4 Blanco, Andres -1 -1 -2.1 -2.1 Bloomquist, Willie 4 4 -3.1 -3.9 Bocachica, Hiram 0 0 -0.2 -0.2 Botts, Jason 1 2 2.5 2.5 Bradley, Milton 24 23 19.8 22.7 Brignac, Reid 1 1 1.4 1.4 Broussard, Ben 0 1 -1.5 -1.5 Brown, Emil 17 16 15.3 13.4 Brown, Jeremy -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Buck, John -1 0 -6.3 -2.9 Buck, Travis 1 0 0.0 0.0 Burke, Jamie -3 -3 -4.5 -4.5 Butler, Billy 3 3 0.9 0.9 Bynum, Freddie -1 -1 -2.9 -2.9 Byrd, Marlon 3 3 1.8 2.7 Cabrera, Melky 4 5 -5.4 -7.9 Cabrera, Orlando 16 17 5.7 2.3 Cairo, Miguel 1 1 -4.4 -5.9 Cannizaro, Andy -1 -1 -0.9 -0.9 Cano, Robinson 22 20 20.1 18.3 Cantu, Jorge 21 20 22.7 10.2 Casanova, Raul -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Casey, Sean 12 12 -0.9 -0.9 Casilla, Alexi 3 3 0.2 0.2 Castillo, Alberto -1 -1 -1.3 -1.3 Castillo, Luis 26 25 9.3 16.9 Catalanotto, Frank 18 17 13.9 11.1 Chavez, Eric 17 17 29.2 39.8 Chavez, Raul -2 -2 -2.2 -2.2 Choo, Shin-soo 3 3 0.3 0.3 Cintron, Alex 6 6 -2.5 -7.2 Cirillo, Jeff 6 6 -0.8 -1.7 Clayton, Royce -1 0 -7.5 -10.6 Clement, Jeff -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Clevlen, Brent -1 -1 -1.3 -1.3 Cora, Alex -1 0 -5.9 -3.6 Costa, Shane 0 0 -2.6 -2.6 Crawford, Carl 45 41 17.9 21.8 Crede, Joe 5 7 2.1 6.5 Crisp, Coco 23 22 10.1 13.9 Crosby, Bobby 3 4 6.7 12.8 Crowe, Trevor 0 0 -1.4 -1.4 Cruz, Nelson 9 10 2.0 1.1 Cuddyer, Mike 9 11 4.7 1.1 Damon, Johnny 33 32 19.7 27.4 DeJesus, David 18 18 10.6 18.1 Dellucci, David 4 4 3.1 -1.3 Diaz, Victor 0 0 0.5 0.5 Drew, J.D. 17 18 28.9 30.9 Dubois, Jason -1 -1 -0.5 -0.5 Dukes, Elijah 8 9 1.9 1.9 Duncan, Eric -1 -1 -0.3 -0.3 Durazo, Erubiel -1 -1 -0.3 -1.1 Dye, Jermaine 12 13 9.4 3.8 Ellis, Mark 6 8 8.4 16.2 Ellsbury, Jacoby 1 1 -0.4 -0.4 Erstad, Darin 7 8 -6.4 -0.4 Evans, Terry 0 0 -0.8 -0.8 Fahey, Brandon -1 -1 -2.1 -2.8 Fasano, Sal -2 -2 -1.9 -2.7 Fields, Josh 2 2 1.4 1.4 Figgins, Chone 21 19 0.1 -0.8 Fiorentino, Jeff -1 -1 -1.7 -1.7 Ford, Lew 3 4 -3.6 -3.6 Francisco, Ben 1 1 -0.2 -0.2 Garciaparra, Michael 0 0 -0.2 -0.2 Gardner, Brett 0 0 -1.7 -1.7 Garko, Ryan 2 3 -0.4 -1.3 Gathright, Joey 5 5 -3.6 -1.1 German, Esteban 15 14 12.1 10.4 Giambi, Jason 11 12 35.8 27.6 Giarratano, Tony -1 -1 -1.2 -1.2 Gibbons, Jay 9 9 8.7 3.2 Ginter, Keith -1 -1 0.1 0.1 Glaus, Troy 8 10 21.5 17.8 Gload, Ross 8 7 0.9 0.0 Goleski, Ryan -1 -1 -0.1 -0.1 Gomes, Jonny 3 4 6.7 2.1 Gomez, Chris 2 3 -7.9 -7.1 Gonzalez, Wiki -1 -1 -1.3 -1.3 Gordon, Alex 14 15 11.2 11.2 Gorneault, Nick -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Granderson, Curtis 0 3 -3.5 7.2 Grudzielanek, Mark 10 11 0.4 7.0 Guerrero, Vladimir 40 37 30.8 24.9 Guillen, Carlos 29 28 24.9 27.8 Guillen, Jose 6 7 1.5 0.6 Gutierrez, Franklin 0 0 -2.1 -2.1 Guzman, Freddy 2 1 -1.7 -1.7 Guzman, Joel 2 2 0.3 0.3 Hafner, Travis 26 26 44.0 44.0 Hairston, Jerry 0 1 -0.1 -0.1 Hall, Toby -1 -1 -0.7 -0.7 Harris, Brendan -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Hattig, John -1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 Heintz, Chris -1 -1 -1.5 -1.5 Hernandez, Ramon 6 7 3.0 9.5 Hill, Aaron 12 12 5.3 -4.5 Hillenbrand, Shea 12 12 2.5 -8.6 Hinske, Eric 3 3 3.2 1.4 House, J.R. 0 0 0.2 0.2 Huber, Justin 0 0 0.6 0.6 Huff, Aubrey 21 19 19.8 14.2 Hunter, Torii 12 13 2.2 11.5 Ibanez, Raul 14 15 8.3 7.4 Iguchi, Tadahito 17 17 16.3 14.6 Infante, Omar -1 0 -0.2 0.6 Inge, Brandon 5 7 2.1 11.1 Inglett, Joe 0 0 0.0 0.0 Iwamura, Akinori 15 15 15.1 15.1 Izturis, Maicer 10 11 1.1 1.9 Jeter, Derek 37 35 27.5 22.0 Johjima, Kenji 12 11 -3.8 -2.0 Johnson, Dan 5 6 4.7 2.9 Johnson, Elliot 0 0 -0.3 -0.3 Johnson, Reed 6 7 -1.0 -1.0 Jones, Adam 5 5 1.0 1.9 Kata, Matt -1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 Kendall, Jason 17 18 -5.0 -10.8 Kendrick, Howie 20 20 16.3 16.3 Kielty, Bobby 2 2 -4.0 -4.8 Kinsler, Ian 12 13 13.1 13.9 Knott, Jon -1 -1 -1.3 -1.3 Konerko, Paul 24 23 24.4 19.5 Kotchman, Casey 4 5 -4.2 -1.6 Kotsay, Mark 7 7 1.4 4.1 Kottaras, George -1 -1 -1.0 -1.0 Kubel, Jason 3 5 4.1 0.6 LaHair, Bryan 0 0 0.3 0.3 Laird, Gerald 6 7 0.5 6.8 LaRue, Jason -9 -7 -8.7 -7.1 LeCroy, Matt -1 -1 -0.1 -1.0 Lind, Adam 12 11 11.0 9.0 Lofton, Kenny 15 15 -3.1 3.9 Lopez, Jose 6 7 0.0 0.8 Lowell, Mike 17 18 18.0 29.2 Lugo, Julio 30 30 25.1 34.5 Luna, Hector 1 1 -0.7 -2.3 Machado, Alejandro 0 0 -0.3 -0.3 Mackowiak, Rob 2 2 -5.0 -4.2 Majewski, Val -1 -1 -1.1 -1.1 Markakis, Nick 13 14 3.9 3.0 Marte, Andy 1 3 3.3 4.2 Martinez, Victor 23 22 19.6 4.0 Mathis, Jeff 0 0 -1.4 -1.4 Matsui, Hideki 35 34 32.9 25.1 Matthews, Jr., Gary 9 10 -2.1 5.8 Mauer, Joe 26 25 19.4 26.1 McDonald, John -2 -1 -6.8 -4.5 McEwing, Joe -1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 McPherson, Dallas -1 -1 -0.5 -0.5 Melhuse, Adam -3 -2 -3.1 -3.1 Michaels, Jason 9 9 3.4 4.3 Mientkiewicz, Doug 0 1 -3.0 1.4 Millar, Kevin 13 13 9.1 10.1 Mirabelli, Doug -5 -4 -5.3 -6.8 Mohr, Dustan -2 -2 -0.9 -0.9 Molina, Gustavo -4 -4 -6.9 -6.9 Molina, Jose -6 -5 -9.7 -7.5 Monroe, Craig 8 9 0.6 1.5 Mora, Melvin 14 15 -0.2 -6.0 Morales, Kendry 1 1 -1.3 -0.4 Morneau, Justin 20 20 14.3 14.3 Morse, Mike -1 -1 -1.5 -1.5 Murphy, David 0 0 0.8 0.8 Murphy, Donnie -1 -1 0.1 0.1 Murphy, Tommy 0 -1 -1.8 -1.8 Napoli, Mike -3 -1 1.3 2.2 Navarro, Dioner 6 6 0.6 -1.2 Navarro, Oswaldo -1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 Nieves, Wil -2 -2 -3.0 -3.0 Nixon, Trot 11 12 10.7 8.0 Norton, Greg -1 0 -3.2 -2.4 Ochoa, Alex 0 0 0.1 0.1 Ojeda, Miguel -2 -2 -2.3 -3.1 Olmedo, Ray 1 1 -0.4 -0.4 Ordonez, Magglio 23 23 18.9 13.3 Ortiz, David 34 33 60.4 43.5 Overbay, Lyle 24 23 21.8 28.7 Owens, Jerry 0 0 -1.4 -1.4 Ozuna, Pablo 4 4 -1.9 -1.9 Patterson, Corey 29 27 8.9 18.7 Paul, Josh -2 -2 -3.8 -4.6 Payton, Jay 4 5 -6.4 -5.5 Pedroia, Dustin 10 10 7.5 9.2 Pena, Carlos -1 -1 -0.3 -0.3 Pena, Jr., Tony 3 4 -15.5 -15.5 Pena, Wily Mo 8 8 4.7 4.7 Peralta, Jhonny 14 15 18.9 23.4 Perez, Antonio -3 -2 -3.9 -3.1 Perez, Neifi -7 -6 -14.0 -9.2 Perez, Timo -1 -1 -0.7 -0.7 Phelps, Josh 1 1 -3.6 -3.6 Phillips, Andy -1 -1 -2.2 -2.2 Phillips, Jason L. -3 -2 -5.1 -8.2 Phillips, Paul -1 -1 -1.5 -1.5 Piazza, Mike 9 9 9.4 -17.5 Pierzynski, A.J. 4 5 -8.1 -16.4 Podsednik, Scott 18 17 -9.5 -7.8 Polanco, Placido 18 18 4.3 10.9 Posada, Jorge 6 7 6.2 7.1 Pratt, Todd -2 -2 -1.2 -1.2 Pride, Curtis -2 -2 -2.1 -2.1 Punto, Nick 10 11 -6.7 -6.7 Quinlan, Robb 4 4 -1.7 -5.0 Quiroz, Guillermo -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Rabe, Josh -1 -1 -1.3 -1.3 Rabelo, Mike -1 -1 -1.5 -1.5 Raburn, Ryan 0 0 0.1 0.1 Ramirez, Manny 32 31 57.0 36.3 Redmond, Mike 4 4 -3.2 -1.5 Reed, Jeremy -2 -1 -3.0 -0.4 Reese, Kevin 0 0 -0.8 -0.8 Riggans, Shawn 0 0 -1.2 -1.2 Rios, Alex 24 23 16.1 19.0 Rivas, Luis 0 0 -1.1 -1.1 Rivera, Juan 2 2 -2.6 -2.6 Rivera, Rene -2 -2 -1.5 -1.5 Roberts, Brian 30 28 23.0 25.7 Rodriguez, Alex 54 50 62.4 58.2 Rodriguez, Ivan 13 13 -2.4 11.1 Rodriguez, Luis -1 -1 0.1 0.1 Rogers, Ed -1 -1 -1.0 -1.0 Rogowski, Casey 1 1 0.2 0.2 Rose, Mike -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Rouse, Mike -3 -2 -2.5 -2.5 Sanchez, Angel -2 -2 -1.6 -1.6 Sanders, Reggie 1 2 -0.6 -3.2 Santiago, Ramon -3 -3 -3.2 -3.2 Sardinha, Bronson -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Scutaro, Marco 0 1 3.5 1.0 Sexson, Richie 10 11 14.3 10.5 Shealy, Ryan 15 16 11.3 11.3 Sheffield, Gary 22 22 15.0 5.0 Shelton, Chris 6 6 6.2 8.2 Shoppach, Kelly -1 -1 -1.9 -1.0 Sizemore, Grady 20 21 20.1 33.8 Smith, Jason -5 -4 -4.2 -4.2 Snyder, Brad 0 0 -0.2 -0.2 Sosa, Sammy -3 -2 -4.5 -11.1 Span, Denard 0 0 -2.2 -2.2 Spivey, Junior 0 0 0.3 0.3 Stairs, Matt -2 -1 -1.5 -4.1 Stern, Adam 0 0 -2.1 -2.1 Stewart, Chris -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Stewart, Shannon 8 8 -3.7 -7.8 Suzuki, Ichiro 47 43 17.3 24.0 Suzuki, Kurt 0 0 -0.4 -0.4 Sweeney, Mike 12 12 12.9 11.0 Sweeney, Ryan 1 1 -0.4 -0.4 Swisher, Nick 6 8 18.8 18.8 Teahen, Mark 22 22 23.2 14.8 Teixeira, Mark 31 30 48.0 60.8 Tejada, Miguel 31 29 24.4 27.2 Terrero, Luis 1 1 -0.8 -0.8 Thames, Marcus 5 5 6.7 4.8 Thomas, Frank 21 20 30.8 30.8 Thome, Jim 8 9 20.3 8.9 Thompson, Kevin 0 0 -1.2 -1.2 Tiffee, Terry -1 -1 -1.1 -1.1 Torres, Eider 0 0 -1.1 -1.1 Tyner, Jason 1 1 -8.0 -8.0 Upton, B.J. 16 15 3.1 1.4 Uribe, Juan 5 6 4.5 13.6 Varitek, Jason 6 7 3.9 1.2 Vazquez, Ramon -1 0 -1.1 -1.9 Vidro, Jose 10 10 9.6 -2.7 Watson, Brandon -1 -1 -1.3 -1.3 Wells, Vernon 25 24 20.8 36.7 White, Rondell 6 6 -0.5 -2.2 Wigginton, Ty 5 5 10.0 4.8 Wilkerson, Brad 7 9 11.9 12.9 Willits, Reggie 1 1 -1.6 -0.8 Wilson, Bobby -1 -1 -1.3 -1.3 Wilson, Michael -1 -1 -0.4 -0.4 Wilson, Vance -4 -3 -8.0 -8.0 Wood, Brandon 1 1 2.0 2.0 Youkilis, Kevin 17 18 13.0 18.6 Young, Delmon 30 27 6.4 3.6 Young, Mike 42 39 33.6 28.0 Zaun, Gregg 1 3 0.8 -6.9 Zobrist, Ben 5 6 0.8 -0.8
Tomorrow we will post and review our NL batter projections.
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