Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
P = Pitches.  B = Bats.  Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2006.
Proj. = Rotohelp's projected 2006 stats and fantasy values for each player.
2006 = Each player's final 2006 stat line and fantasy values.
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; aRAR = RAR adjusted to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

We ranked players in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, we listed each player in the league where he started the season.

25.  Pat Neshek					MIN Twins					Age: 26		P:R   B:S
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.
2006	4	0	2.19	.78	53	6	23	37		4	4	12.5	12.5

Dominating Double-A in 2005 helped Neshek catch my attention, and after he compiled a 6-2 record, 14 saves, and a 1.95 ERA on an 87:14 K:BB in 60 IP with 41 H and 7 HR allowed over 33 games last spring, he finally attracted the Twins' attention as well. Promoted at the beginning of July, he dominated in even more impressive fashion than Francisco Liriano. Neshek's strikeout, walk, and hit rates rank with baseball's best relievers, and with a .62 G-F ranks as his only negative, he possesses the skill set to relegate Juan Rincon to middle relief permanently. Of course, Neshek also lacks the track record of the veteran, so despite his clearly long-term potential, expecting anything more than a respectable echo of this performance seems unduly optimistic. Bidding more than a few bucks on the youngster sharply reduces your chance to see any profit barring a conflagration of circumstances that requires both continued excellence from Neshek and a significant injury to Joe Nathan, neither of which appears overly likely at this time.

26.  Rafael Betancourt					CLE Indians					Age: 31		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	4	2	3.45	1.20	57	15	57	60		5	5	6.9	6.9
2006	3	3	3.81	1.11	48	11	52	56.2		4	4	7.7	7.7

Back problems cost Betancourt a month last spring, and despite his success in Cleveland over the last few years, he only briefly emerged as a closing option following the trade of Bob Wickman. He entered camp this month stuck behind Joe Borowski, Roberto Hernandez, and probably even Fernando Cabrera on the club's closer depth chart. Fortunately for fantasy owners, Betancourt's negligible chance of securing a more significant role may increase your shot to draft him. He remains among the safest bets of all AL middle relievers, so despite his lack of fantasy upside, he merits a couple of bucks in all AL leagues.

27.  Jesse Crain					MIN Twins					Age: 25		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	1	3.47	1.19	29	25	58	70		5	4	7.8	7.8
2006	4	1	3.52	1.27	60	18	79	76.2		4	4	13.2	13.2

The three-year contract signed by Crain yesterday seemingly secures his position in the Twins' bullpen, but despite a late-summer move into the set-up role, he still seems the most fluid component of the relief corps. Yes, Crain drastically improved his skill set from 2005, when he managed superior qualitative stats simply due to rather extraordinary luck. However, he also developed a welcome groundball tendency, as well hewing far nearer his minor league performance, so I see no reason he won't remain very effective. While I don't view him as a likely candidate for saves at any point in the near future, Crain still merits a couple bucks in most any league.

28.  Matt Thornton					CH White Sox					Age: 30		P:L   B:L
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	1	1	4.86	1.60	43	39	41	50		-3	-2	-3	-3
2006	5	2	3.33	1.24	49	21	46	54		4	5	10.6	10.6

Acquired from Seattle for Joe Borchard at the end of camp in an exchange of stalled first round picks, Thornton somehow blossomed despite shifting to a much tougher pitching environment. He nearly halved his walk rate while cutting his homer rate by nearly two-thirds. The biggest problem Thornton faces right now is his pending move from lefty specialist duties to Neal Cotts' former role as Chicago's southpaw set-up man. I anticipate at least some qualitative regression, which unfortunately should drop Thornton from a mildly useful fantasy asset to no more than roster filler in most leagues.

29.  Juan Rincon					MIN Twins					Age: 27		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	5	3	3.26	1.31	76	33	72	80		6	6	11	11
2006	3	1	2.91	1.35	65	24	76	74.1		4	4	18.5	18.5

Seemingly a little forgotten following the emergences of Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek, Rincon remains among baseball's most consistently effective middle relievers, fully capable of assuming closing duties if Joe Nathan every encounters any problems. The general drop in his dominance concerns me, but Rincon also posted the best walk and groundball rates of his career, solidifying his foundation for long-term success. Considering he vultured eleven wins only a couple years ago and remains in a very comfortable role, I see plenty of reasons to target him in any standard league. You just might net several bucks when everyone else chases after the less familiar and therefore more intriguing relievers on the Twins.

30.  Joe Nelson					KC Royals					Age: 31		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.
2006	1	9	4.43	1.37	44	24	37	44.2		4	4	2.7	7.6

Nelson spent the first half on the Kansas City-Omaha shuttle, receiving three brief call-ups in the early months of the season before finally sticking in the Royals' bullpen in mid-July. He surprisingly replaced Ambiorix Burgos as the club's closer within a month, eventually converting nine of his ten save opportunities while posting an impressive 8.9 K/9. Yet given the current questions about his shoulder, as well as his clear demotion into middle relief following the signings of Octavio Dotel and David Riske, anteing more than an endgame buck on this journeyman isn't a particularly good idea. Nelson easily could return to AAAA status as Dayton Moore continue to churn Royals' relievers, leaving him little chance of returning much fantasy value this summer.

31.  Kyle Farnsworth					NY Yankees					Age: 30		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	3	3.99	1.36	72	31	64	70		3	3	3.4	3.4
2006	3	6	4.36	1.36	75	28	62	66		4	4	4.5	4.5

I don't understand why Farnsworth left a seemingly ideal situation as Atlanta's closer to serve as Mariano Rivera's caddy, leaving the Braves unexpectedly bereft of a reliable ninth inning option while not really adding much to the Yankees. Despite little overt change in his skill set, he also continued his pattern of alternating his dominant seasons with no more than mediocre campaigns. The good news is that the minor injury issues that affected him last summer don't appear chronic, giving us every reason to believe we'll see a strong rebound in 2007. I view Farnsworth as a good target in the $4-6 range.

32.  Wes Littleton					TEX Rangers					Age: 24		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.
2006	2	1	1.73	.99	17	13	23	36.1		4	3	14.3	18.3

Little opened the year back with AA Frisco(TL), where he managed a 0.66 ERA on a 25:7 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 17 G. He spent a few days with the Rangers in May, and then headed to AAA Oklahoma(PCL), where he offered a 2.16 ERA on a 15:5 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 13 G. Texas unsurprisingly promoted him for good in early July, and although his skills didn't support his superlative ERA and WHIP, he still seems certain to open 2007 in the majors. Littleton's lack of dominance concerns me, definitely leading me to believe that he should remain in middle relief indefinitely, but a 3.75 G-F also sharply minimizes his downside. While he at least won't hurt you as roster filler, Littleton isn't someone likely to earn more than a few bucks of roto value under almost any circumstances, so don't draft him in the hope of seeing any real profit on your investment.

33.  Scott Downs					TOR Blue Jays					Age: 30		P:L   B:L
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	4	0	5.10	1.50	44	22	68	60		-2	-2	1.7	1.7
2006	6	1	4.09	1.34	61	30	73	77		3	3	7.9	16.4

When forced into the rotation by Toronto, Downs posted a 9.39 ERA on a 10:6 K:BB in 15.1 IP with 29 H and 3 HR allowed over five starts. When simply allowed to relieve, Downs registered a 2.77 ERA on a 51:24 K:BB in 62.6 IP with 44 H and 6 HR over 54 G, clearly demonstrating a welcome proficiency in that roles that he lacks at the beginning of games. If left alone in the bullpen, Downs probably deserves plenty of consideration for the last spot on fantasy pitching staffs, but since the club appears determined to employ him as a swingman, the risk of owning him for those occasional starts harshly limits his upside to you. Only roster Downs if the Jays clearly shift him from long relief to middle relief or even lefty specialist duties.

34.  Kiko Calero					OAK Athletics					Age: 31		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	2	3.27	1.15	44	16	47	55		5	4	7.5	7.5
2006	3	2	3.41	1.28	67	24	50	58		3	4	10.8	10.8

Staying healthy all season enabled Calero to continue his emergence as one of the most quietly dominant middle relievers in the game. The biggest problem he faces is that a significant platoon split essentially reduces him to a role as Oakland's right-handed specialist, leaving him little shot at more than an occasional save opportunity even if Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer collide while shagging flys during batting practice. Of course, Calero also ranks among the best fantasy buys in the game, and given the near certainty that he'll contribute useful stats in almost every category, savvy owners in deep leagues definitely should think about adding him for a buck or two for general qualitative stability.

35.  Brandon League					TOR Blue Jays					Age: 23		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	0	0	5.40	1.60	6	5	11	10		-2	-3	-1.3	-0.1
2006	1	1	2.53	1.01	29	9	34	42.2		3	3	12.6	17.3

Few young relievers impress me more than League, whose skill set appears perfectly suited to success in Toronto. After spending the first half compiling a sterling 2.14 ERA and 8 Saves on a 43:15 K:BB in 54.2 IP as the closer for AAA Syracuse(IL), he joined the Jays' bullpen and quickly progressed to the forefront of the middle relief corps. He entered camp as B.J. Ryan's set-up man, though the shoulder discomfort currently afflicting him definitely dampens his value. If healthy, League warrants a couple of bucks as one of the lower-risk backup closers, but if his health issues linger, don't consider him for more than an endgame flyer, especially with Jeremy Accardo and Jason Frasor still in the mix behind Ryan.

36.  Chad Gaudin					OAK Athletics					Age: 23		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	0	0	3.60	1.40	3	2	5	5		-1	-2	0.5	1.1
2006	4	2	3.09	1.45	36	42	51	64		3	3	14.4	21.5

Snagged by Oakland for a PTBN in December of 2005, Gaudin started four games for AAA Sacramento before joining the Athletics' bullpen for good in mid-May. After a couple of mediocre months, he somehow allowed just one run in twenty-one appearances in July and August. Yet with a 5.1 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, and a .89 G-F providing little hope of continued success, I barely view Gaudin as a good bet to remain in the majors. Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Jay Witasick, and Alan Embree also all hold unquestioned relief jobs, leaving Gaudin little margin for error this spring. Despite the fact that his skill collapse seems strikingly out of character, Gaudin ranks among the worst fantasy gambles for 2007, someone whose poor skill set seems certain to wreck his merely superficially strong qualitative stats.

37.  Rick Bauer					TEX Rangers					Age: 29		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.
2006	3	2	3.55	1.38	35	25	73	71		3	3	12	19.9

After slipping from a central position in Baltimore's bullpen back in 2002 into increasing organizational irrelevance over the next three summers, Bauer jumpstarted his career by signing in Texas. Unfortunately, his low strikeout rate leaves him stuck in middle relief, and even if injuries strike both Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka, Bauer just will watch as Scott Feldman or Wes Littleton slides into the closer's role. Between Bauer's lack of dominance and the downside inherent in drafting any Rangers' reliever, he simply doesn't belong on any fantasy rosters in 2007.

38.  Shawn Camp					TB Devil Rays					Age: 30		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	1	4.80	1.43	35	14	72	60		0	-1	-3.1	-3.1
2006	7	4	4.68	1.49	53	19	93	75		3	3	2.2	2.2

Signing with the Rays following the Royals' decision to non-tender him proved a definite boon for Camp, who spent the summer as the club's most consistent late-inning reliever. While his general lack of dominance leaves him little general upside, only troublesome hit rates mar an otherwise strong skill set. I see a lot to like here, and although he appears unlikely to see many more save opportunities, he probably ranks as the lowest-risk investment among all Rays' relievers.

39.  Mike MacDougal					KC/CHW					Age: 29		P:R   B:S
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	18	4.50	1.44	44	20	52	50		8	7	-0.7	-0.7
2006	1	1	1.55	.93	21	6	21	29		3	2	12	12

A strained shoulder sidelined MacDougal until the All-Star break. He then spent all of four games as the Royals' closer before Dayton Moore dealt him to Chicago for Tyler Lumsden and Dan Cortes. MacDougal spent the next ten weeks as one of baseball's top set-up men, and if he remains healthy, he'll easily justify the three-year contract he signed in December. With his impressively balanced skill set, MacDougal might rank as the most cost-effective target among all non-closing relievers. Anything under $5 seems a fantastic bargain for someone only a Bobby Jenks injury away from reemerging as a very solid closer.

40.  Brian Meadows					TB Devil Rays					Age: 30		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	4	2	4.11	1.26	31	17	71	70		4	3	2.3	2.3
2006	3	8	5.17	1.51	35	15	90	69.2		3	2	-2.1	-2.1

Failing to make the Dodgers didn't adversely affect Meadows as he immediately signed with Tampa, once again spending the entire season in the majors. He even spent a month as the club's closer, but due to his general lack of dominance and extremely high hit and homer rates, poor qualitative stats essentially wrecked his value. The minor league deal he signed with the Reds four weeks ago leaves him little chance of securing any significant role, so I see no reason to consider him as more than short-term roster filler in 2007.

AL Reliever Reviews continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Mike MacDougal, Kyle Farnsworth, and Juan Rincon top my list of preferred targets among the multitude of interesting relievers discussed above as the veterans possess both the experience and skill trends to exceed their 2006 fantasy contributions. Other solid investments include League, Neshek, Betancourt, and Calero, though the odds of more than one of these players reaching double-digit saves this summer still seem rather remote.