Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
P = Pitches.  B = Bats.  Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2006.
Proj. = Rotohelp's projected 2006 stats and fantasy values for each player.
2006 = Each player's final 2006 stat line and fantasy values.
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; aRAR = RAR adjusted to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

We ranked players in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, we listed each player in the league where he started the season.

14.  Scot Shields					LA Angels					Age: 31		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	6	6	3.38	1.29	73	32	71	80		8	8	9.9	9.9
2006	7	2	2.87	1.07	84	24	70	87.2		9	9	22.1	22.1

The most consistently effective non-closing American League reliever over the past three seasons, Shields remains stuck behind KRod in an otherwise excellent situation. He finished first in holds for the second straight year, suffers from no overt skill deficiency, invariably vultures several wins, and most importantly, remains first in line for saves on a team that generates a wealth of opportunities every summer. If KRod signs a long-term deal, Shields almost certainly will head to free agency after 2008 with the reasonable belief of receiving an exorbitant contract from some club looking to assuage fan discontent by raising the payroll. Somewhat ironically, Shields' performance actually justifies a fairly significant investment from anyone looking for bullpen help, so although he'll cost several bucks in most leagues, the combination of his consistency and upside warrants that investment from any team planning to purchase just one closer in the draft.

15.  Joel Zumaya					DET Tigers					Age: 21		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	5	3	4.20	1.46	80	45	86	90		2	3	2	12.5
2006	6	1	1.94	1.18	97	42	56	83.1		9	9	30.6	39.8

Considering Zumaya registered MLE stats that included a 3.46 ERA and a 181:74 K:BB in 151 IP in 2005, his performance last summer appears fairly in line with his expected upside upon moving to the bullpen. The high walk rate and flyball rate don't really bother me given his 10.5 K/9 and 6.0 H/9, which nicely illustrate the extent of his dominance. With the additional young starters in Detroit's pipeline, specifically Zach Miller, Andrew Miller, and Jair Jurrjens, Zumaya also shouldn't return to the rotation any time soon, a move that likely would exacerbate his previous injury issues. A healthy Zumaya could spend a decade among baseball's most valuable relievers, especially if the Tigers keep him in the more vital middle innings. The downside of the decision to retain Todd Jones as closer, most likely with Fernando Rodney or even Jose Mesa as the designated alternative, is that Zumaya shouldn't see double-digit roto value any time soon. Treat him as a supremely competent middle man, not a likely candidate to receive twenty save opportunities in the second half.

16.  Fernando Rodney					DET Tigers					Age: 29		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	13	4.50	1.43	52	25	61	60		6	5	-0.9	-0.9
2006	7	7	3.52	1.19	65	34	51	71.2		8	8	12.4	12.4

Detroit's prospective closer for the last two seasons, Rodney enters the third year of his apprenticeship locked into the Tigers' set-up role after a two-year contract last month. Of course, considering his success when replacing Todd Jones last spring, he appears fully capable of handling the job when needed. Only Rodney's control problems look like an obvious warning flag, but given his overall effectiveness and the relative irrelevance of a closer's walk rate, he seems a good bet to emerge as a significant fantasy asset, particularly if Detroit lets Jones depart as a free agent in the fall. I view Rodney as an excellent investment anywhere around $5, particularly if the media attention on Zumaya pushes his price to double Rodney's cost when the opposite relationship seems more appropriate to their current roles

17.  Justin Duchscherer					OAK Athletics					Age: 28		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	4	3.21	1.13	62	19	60	70		8	7	10.1	10.1
2006	2	9	2.91	1.10	51	9	52	55.2		8	7	13.8	13.8

The tendonitis that plagued Duchscherer throughout May and June didn't prevent him from reemerging as a dominant set-up man upon his return, even ably filling Huston Street's shoes when the club's closer encountered his own injury problems. Duchscherer registered one of the best skill sets of any pitcher in the majors, and given his previous success, he appears quite capable of posting similar stats for several more seasons. Consider him a definite bargain at anything shy of $5, as well as a worthy investment for a few bucks more, particularly if you're looking for Street insurance.

18.  Hector Carrasco					LA Angels					Age: 36		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	1	4.24	1.39	51	29	68	70		1	1	1.2	9.4
2006	7	1	3.41	1.20	72	27	93	100.1		7	7	18.7	29.8

I always expected Carrasco to justify the $6.1M/2 contract he landed with the Angels last winter, but his level of success as the club's long reliever still surprised me. After failing to post successful back-to-back seasons at any point in the decade, he maintained his skill level from the Nationals while contributing in a variety of situations in Los Angeles. Of course, with Joe Saunders set as the Angels' sixth starter and Justin Speier replacing Brendan Donnelly in support of KRod and Scot Shields, Carrasco stands no chance to secure a more significant role, but I also see no reason he can't echo these numbers once again. Carrasco merits a couple of bucks in any standard format due to both his qualitative and quantitative potential.

19.  Scott Proctor					NY Yankees					Age: 29		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	0	0	4.50	1.32	39	17	49	50		-1	-1	-0.7	5.1
2006	6	1	3.52	1.19	89	33	89	102.1		7	7	17.7	29.1

Initially acquired from the Dodgers for Robin Ventura in 2003, Proctor emerged as the Yankees' key middle reliever last summer, appearing in eighty-three games and leading the league in relief innings. Perhaps he'll avoid the problems generally encountered by pitchers with comparable workloads, but Proctor appears rather risky right now, especially since he stands little chance to see any save opportunities with Mariano Rivera pitching for a new contract and Kyle Farnsworth clearly the club's set-up man. Conversely, Proctor's success appears supported by his skills, so even if he stumbles to some extent, he still should win several games and at least won't hurt you qualitatively. Feel free to bid a buck or even two in the endgame of deep drafts.

20.  Dennys Reyes					MIN Twins					Age: 29		P:L   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.
2006	5	0	0.89	.99	49	15	35	50.2		7	6	25.2	30.8

More proof of Rick Anderson's status as the majors' most unheralded pitching coach, Reyes emerged as the best left-handed reliever in baseball despite not breaking camp with Minnesota. The minor league free agent instead headed to AAA Rochester, dominated for four games, and then didn't miss a beat upon his promotion to the Twins. His strong groundball tendency, which truly emerged the previous summer in San Diego, finally helped him improve his other skill rates to the point where his miniscule ERA appears largely justified by his supporting stats. While Reyes won't approach this level of success in 2007, the two-year contract he signed in August insures he remains a key member of Minnesota's bullpen, as well as someone to target in the endgame for anyone seeking to improve their qualitative foundation while also adding perhaps a half-dozen wins to their ledger.

21.  Ambiorix Burgos					KC Royals					Age: 22		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	7	4.63	1.54	61	35	73	70		1	1	-2.1	-2.1
2006	4	18	5.52	1.64	72	37	83	73.1		6	6	-5.5	2.7

Dealt to the Mets during the Winter Meetings for Brian Bannister as part of Dayton Moore's purge of Royals' relievers, Burgos isn't even guaranteed a big league job right now, a far cry from the months he spent closing in Kansas City last summer. He still blew twelve saves, and with high walk, homer, and hit rates, isn't a particularly safe gamble, especially since he won't see any time at the back of the Mets' bullpen in the near future. However, Burgos also dominates on occasion, so with the vastly increased overall support provided by New York's defense and other relievers, his ERA and WHIP should plummet. I don't expect him to hurt you if drafted for a buck or two as roster filler.

22.  Mike Timlin					BOS Red Sox					Age: 40		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	4	10	4.37	1.34	43	17	77	70		6	5	0.1	0.1
2006	6	9	4.36	1.47	30	16	78	64		6	5	4.4	4.4

The nearly 41-year-old reliever enters his seventeenth season as perhaps the key reliever in Boston's bullpen since he invariably receives several save opportunities every year while serving as the club's set-up man when otherwise available. While he missed a couple weeks with shoulder discomfort last spring and reportedly tweaked a muscle yesterday, Timlin still ranks as a reasonably safe gamble, as well as someone worth employing as no less than regular roster filler in all AL leagues. We often snag him during Dollar Days and happily watch him return at least five bucks in profit, though given his age and skill trends, we definitely see a need to reduce expectations this year. I don't envision him emerging as the primary Red Sox closer, so unless you see a need on your team for a middle reliever who'll save six games while offering a negligible qualitative contribution, Timlin may not be a good fit for your squad.

23.  Rafael Soriano					SEA Mariners					Age: 26		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	8	3.60	1.25	58	20	55	60		7	6	5.8	5.8
2006	1	2	2.25	1.08	65	21	44	60		5	5	19.8	19.8

Although I really like Bob Wickman's prospects for 2007, the Braves dealt Horacio Ramirez for Rafael Soriano with the intent of making the fireballing right-hander their future closer, a situation that hasn't changed following the addition of Mike Gonzalez to the relief corps. Soriano nearly returned to full health after two injury-plagued campaigns and reemerged as top set-up man. Yes, his .49 G-F worries me, and he also missed time with shoulder and neck problems, as well as suffering the effects of a Vladimir Guerrero line drive to the head. The good news is that he appears healthy right now, never really lost his effectiveness last season, and looks like a major bargain heading into the season. Keeper league owners in particular should target this guy as fantastic mid-season trade bait since many rebuilding teams will trade plenty for Soriano in the hope of landing the Braves' 2008 closer rostered at an expected price of only a few dollars.

24.  Eddie Guardado					SEA/CIN					Age: 36		P:L   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	28	3.60	1.20	33	13	35	40		16	13	3.8	3.8
2006	1	13	3.89	1.54	39	13	44	37		5	5	4.7	4.7

Don't be surprised if the 36-year-old journeyman doesn't reemerge as a closer considering he just underwent Tommy John surgery in September and only landed a minor league deal with Cincinnati. The Reds clearly hope to see a youngster like Todd Coffey displace the current closing combo of Dave Weathers and Mike Stanton. Plus, with Stanton, Rheal Cormier, and Bill Bray on the roster, Guardado lacks a logical place in Cincy despite his excellent performance after Wayne Krivsky traded Travis Chick to Seattle for the veteran southpaw. Perhaps Guardado will rebound, building on his 1.29 ERA, 8 saves, and the 17:2 K:BB in 14 IP he managed for the Reds last summer, but his likely limited role means you shouldn't draft him in the spring unless looking for a $1 cap slot in extremely traditional formats.

AL Reliever Reviews continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Recent problems finding sufficient saves to remain competitive in the most stratified roto category leave us hesitant to recommend eschewing the acquisition of a couple of closers in most leagues, but if you opt to focus fairly exclusively on your offense, investing in a trio or even a quartet of middle relievers remains an intriguing option. In most leagues you should be able to land Shields, Rodney, and Duchscherer for less than the cost of an established closer, providing you with upward of 250 IP of a 2.90 ERA and about a 1.10 WHIP, along with probably fifteen wins and at least ten saves, stats worth $40 bids if provided by a single pitcher. More importantly, spreading the risk over three roster spots maximizes your upside with the possibility of one of your comparatively low-budget investments emerges as a $20 closer, giving you both a boost in saves and possibly a perfect piece of trade bait. Considering the surprising paucity of reasonable gambles among the lower rungs of AL rotations in 2007, budgeting for one closer, four $6-12 starters, and a few top set-up guys may offer the best path to the Yoo-Hoo this summer.