Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
P = Pitches.  B = Bats.  Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2006.
Proj. = Rotohelp's projected 2006 stats and fantasy values for each player.
2006 = Each player's final 2006 stat line and fantasy values.
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; aRAR = RAR adjusted to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

We ranked players in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, we listed each player in the league where he started the season.

1.  Francisco Rodriguez					LA Angels					Age: 24		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	36	2.48	1.11	93	37	52	80		26	24	18.8	18.8
2006	2	47	1.73	1.10	98	28	52	73		30	27	28.8	28.8

With a loaded bullpen carrying leads to the ninth innings and no reason to expect any significant decrease in the Angels' wins this summer, KRod easily could return to the 45-save plateau for a third straight season. Few pitchers equal his dominance, and although I harbor some general injury concerns, a relatively limited workload seemingly makes him a very solid gamble. Of course, bad luck could send his ERA hurtling upward, but given his overall skill level, anything above a 2.50 mark would shock me. Feel free to push into the $30s if you see a chance to acquire the American League's back-to-back saves leader.

2.  Joe Nathan					MIN Twins					Age: 31		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	38	2.31	1.04	83	24	49	70		27	25	17.8	17.8
2006	7	36	1.58	.79	95	16	38	68.1		29	25	28.1	28.1

Although Nathan's save total precipitously declined in his third year in Minnesota, he actually posted the best skill set of his career, which led to career-best qualitative stats. Expect the Twins' expected offensive regression to result in more save opportunities for the perennial All-Star closer, giving him an excellent chance to usurp KRod atop the reliever value list by next fall. Nathan remains as safe a bet as any closer in the game given his overall dominance and complete lack of health concerns over the past three seasons. If you want a closer to solidify your ERA/WHIP foundation and guarantee you at least thirty saves, feel free to spend into the $30s for this guy.

3.  B.J. Ryan					TOR Blue Jays					Age: 30		P:L   B:L
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	34	3.86	1.40	90	34	64	70		18	17	4.5	4.5
2006	2	38	1.37	.86	86	20	42	72.1		28	25	31.7	31.7

Somehow Ryan managed to justify the five-year contract for $47M that the Jays lavished upon him last winter. That deal also no longer looks nearly as outrageous with just $39M remaining over the next four seasons. Although good luck accounts for a significant portion of his career-best qualitative stats, Ryan also remains a dominant reliever easily capable of approaching $30 in value for the next few seasons. Expect nothing less than a 2.50 ERA, another thirty-five saves, and a good value at any price in the neighborhood of $25.

4.  Jonathan Papelbon					BOS Red Sox					Age: 25		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	7	0	4.50	1.39	75	40	99	100		2	2	-1.5	10.2
2006	4	35	0.92	.78	75	13	40	68.1		28	25	33.7	41.3

While his second-half success in 2005 hinted at this upside, Papelbon's development into perhaps baseball's best closer realistically shocked everyone. Despite opening the season in subservient role to Keith Foulke, he saved ten games in April without allowing a run, nine more in May while allowing just one run, and seven more in the half against just one additional run. He remained in the middle of the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and even MVP debates right up until he felt shoulder discomfort at the beginning of September. Although he didn't pitch again, he spend the last few months strengthening his shoulder muscles and now seems set to move into Boston's rotation, reportedly due to a general belief that pitching only once or twice a week will reduce the risk of further injury. Don't expect Papelbon to mimic Derek Lowe's immediate success upon making that same move as the vast majority of pitchers switching from relieving to starting suffer severe qualitative downturns. Only the chance of Papelbon returning to the bullpen makes me willing even to push toward $10 since otherwise the increased workload sufficiently concerns me that I see no reason not to let someone else take the risk of overspending for someone whose fantasy value should drop by two-thirds this summer .

5.  J.J. Putz					SEA Mariners					Age: 28		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	3	4.50	1.40	41	23	61	60		1	1	-0.9	-0.9
2006	4	36	2.30	.92	104	13	59	78.1		27	24	25.3	25.3

Perhaps the safest target of any AL closer, Putz's emergence as one of baseball's dominant reliever pushed both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano right out of Seattle. While those departures leave the rest of the club's relief corps in questionable straits, Putz could post a special season merely by repeating his 2006 stats over a full year as closer. Remember that he didn't displace Guardado until May, so if the Mariners improve at all, forty saves looks like Putz's floor. I see nothing not to like here, and with the three-year deal he signed last month securing his future, Putz looks like an excellent target anywhere around $30, particularly in strikeout leagues, where he ranks as one of the few five-category pitching assets.

6.  Mariano Rivera					NY Yankees					Age: 36		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	39	2.44	1.03	56	14	58	70		27	24	16.7	16.7
2006	5	34	1.80	.96	55	11	61	75		26	22	28.9	28.9

The 36-year-old future Hall of Famer missed a couple weeks in September with elbow problems, a situation that certainly could presage future problems. Fortunately for New York, he otherwise remained as effective as ever, posting his fourth consecutive ERA below 2.00 and again demonstrating a superb all-around skill set. Brian Cashman's decision not to discuss a contract extension with the pending free agent until after the season should provide Rivera all the incentive he needs to shoot back to a $30 roto value, and while his age increases his injury risk, that price seems a fair cost to secure his services, especially since you should be able to add Kyle Farnsworth as insurance for just a couple more dollars.

7.  Huston Street					OAK Athletics					Age: 23		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	4	44	2.83	1.14	55	22	58	70		28	25	13.4	13.4
2006	4	37	3.31	1.09	67	13	64	70.2		23	20	14	14

Injuries prevented Street from blossoming into a star reliever as a strained pectoral muscle limited him in April and groin problems sidelined him from the middle of August until the second week of September. The eight games he still saved that month illustrate Street's upside, especially since he shouldn't suffer through another 7.94 ERA in April. I consider Street the highest upside closer in the league given that no one else possesses a clear shot at fifty saves if healthy and effective. The departures of Barry Zito and Frank Thomas should lead to even more close games for the Athletics, creating oodles of save opportunities that again make Street the most intriguing target among the less established closers. Bidding toward $30 appears fully justified by his significant fantasy potential.

8.  Chris Ray					BAL Orioles					Age: 24		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	4	33	4.11	1.34	62	30	64	70		18	16	2.3	2.3
2006	4	33	2.73	1.09	51	27	45	66		22	19	17.9	17.9

Don't view the acquisitions of Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, and Scott Williamson as anything more than an attempt to patch Baltimore's most glaring weakness by providing a bridge between the young starters and Ray. The Orioles' young closer performed just fine in his first year as a closer, not blowing a save until ten weeks into the season and generally remaining very effective despite fairly unimpressive skills. Of course, Baez doesn't exactly dominate most hitters, so I see no reason why Ray at least shouldn't echo his 2006 performance. Bid into the low $20s in the belief of a repeat and the hope of Ray's continued development into one of the league's better relievers.

9.  Bobby Jenks					CH White Sox					Age: 25		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	1	30	3.75	1.38	63	27	56	60		15	14	4.7	4.7
2006	3	41	4.00	1.39	80	31	66	69.2		22	19	7.9	7.9

Entering camp in bad shape last spring left Jenks in Ozzie Guillen's doghouse well into April, leading to significant speculation that the Sox would switch closers. Instead Jenks immediately asserted himself as the lead dog in Chicago's pen, registering an excellent sophomore campaign despite mildly inflated qualitative stats. Expect both his ERA and save total to drop this summer, leaving him with a roto value around $20. However, while he remains a riskier play than most closers and we really like Mike MacDougal, Jenks appears entrenched in his current role on the White Sox and therefore merits slightly higher bids than you might expect since only a significant injury should cost him his job.

10.  Akinori Otsuka					TEX Rangers					Age: 34		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	4	3	4.35	1.45	49	29	58	60		1	1	0.2	0.2
2006	2	32	2.11	1.07	47	11	53	59.2		21	18	20.7	20.7

Easily the most useful player acquired by the Rangers in last winter's otherwise disastrous giveaway of Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Terrmel Sledge, Otsuka supplanted Francisco Cordero as the closer before the end of April and quickly returned to his 2004 form as if 2005 never happened. While he didn't dominate many hitters, Otsuka's overall impressive skill set provides an excellent foundation for continued success. The club's decision to sign Eric Gagne and thus return Otsuka to a set-up role could work wonderfully to stabilize the pitching staff, making Otsuka a solid $6-8 value based on his qualitative contribute and win potential alone. The chance of him accumulating another two dozen saves if Gagne returns to the DL could kick his value a few bucks higher, leaving him a decent value at any price in single digits.

11.  Todd Jones					DET Tigers					Age: 38		P:R   B:S
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	20	3.86	1.30	49	21	70	70		12	11	4.5	4.5
2006	2	37	3.94	1.27	28	11	70	64		20	17	7.8	7.8

With two consecutive solid seasons under his belt for the first time since he left Detroit in 2001, Jones appears fully capable of remaining effective as the Tigers' closer for another summer. The TSN columnist allows few walks and homers, so although his career-worst 3.9 K/9 could concern me, I see no reason that Jones should suffer more than mild qualitative regression as he approaches forty. Jim Leyland also appears to realize that Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney remain far more valuable in their current roles, leaving Jones the heavy favorite for another thirty-save season, generally worth somewhere around $20 in most leagues.

12.  Bob Wickman					CLE/ATL					Age: 37		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	2	31	4.14	1.34	33	18	49	50		16	14	1.5	1.5
2006	1	33	2.67	1.22	42	13	53	54		19	16	15	15

Stolen from the Indians in July for A-ball catcher Max Ramirez, Wickman plugged the hole left by Kyle Farnsworth's unexpected exit. The veteran closer registered a 1.04 ERA and 18 saves in his ten weeks in Atlanta, earning a one-year extension in September that seemingly leaves no bullpen battle during Braves' camp for the first time in years. Yes, the club also added Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, but unless Wickman succumbs to injury, neither of the potential closers should see many save opportunities as both pitchers possess more value as set-up men. While spending a few bucks on Gonzalez and Soriano may increase your profit potential, simply paying the $20 necessary to roster Wickman generally makes more sense since I see no sabermetric reason he shouldn't echo his 2006 stats this summer.

13.  Francisco Cordero					TEX/MIL					Age: 31		P:R   B:R
	W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP		4x4	5x5	RAR	aRAR
Proj.	3	31	3.73	1.34	72	28	66	70		17	16	5.6	5.6
2006	10	22	3.70	1.34	84	32	69	75.1		16	14	11.3	11.3

Another mid-season renaissance story, poor luck cost Cordero his closer's job in Texas by the end of April, and he then spent the next three months reestablishing credentials as a potentially dominant reliever. His inclusion in the Carlos Lee trade gave the Brewers a far better option at the end of the bullpen than Derrick Turnbow or Dan Kolb, and Milwaukee didn't hesitate to exercise Cordero's option. The pending free agent stands to land a contract in the vicinity of B.J. Ryan's $47M/5 pact with a good season, and considering Cordero's effectiveness in the National League, I expect to him to succeed even if he still lacks acceptable control. Given the Brewers' rotation and overall pitching depth, Cordero could cruise to both forty saves and a $25 value, so consider him a nice buy at any price shy of that level.

AL Reliever Reviews continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Given the general consistency demonstrated over the past couple of years by most of the closer's discussed above, waiting for the best bargain in your draft remains the ideal strategy for anteing in saves. Right now Huston Street and probably J.J. Putz look like the best target in most AL leagues, though both Bob Wickman and especially Francisco Cordero also really intrigue me in NL leagues.