Today's Fantasy Rx

2006 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

We firmly believe that the Rule 5 draft is a great chance to add depth to your roster by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill secondary roles, such as backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder. Teams also should target pitchers who spent 2006 no lower than high-A, then slot the youngsters in long relief, as lefty specialists, or even in middle relief if the pitcher's performance warrants. Selecting reasonably high-upside prospects adds even more value to such picks. Given our preference for selecting one backup position player and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw, if we were drafting, once again few teams took this opportunity seriously this year.

Round One

1. Tampa Bay: Ryan Goleski, OF, CLE; 24, B:R, T:R.
Traded to Oakland for cash.
96/324 for .296/.370/.528 with 17 HR, 63 RBI, 48 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 36:87 BB:K for AA Akron(EL).
40/121 for .331/.441/.636 with 10 HR, 43 RBI, 28 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 25:30 BB:K for A+ Kinston(Car).

Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Oakland paid Tampa $100K for the rights to Goleski. The Athletics only recently discovered that the Indians' product broke his wrist in September, an injury that Cleveland didn't bother reporting prior to the draft despite rules requiring the disclosure of such health problems. I suspect the clubs will resolve this situation by simply announcing a trade of Goleski to Oakland for future considerations, thus allowing Billy Beane to retain Goleski without cluttering the big league roster in 2007. Goleski looks like a great fit as Bobby Kielty's eventual replacement on Oakland's bench, but with Kielty still under contract, the A's just don't need Goleski next summer, leaving him with very little immediate fantasy value.

2. Kansas City: Joakim Soria, Reliever, SD; 22, B:R, T:R.
0-0 on a 30:11 K:BB in 37 IP over 39 G
with 37 H, 2 HR, a 1.93 G-F, and a 3.89 ERA for I Mexico City(Mex).
1-0 on an 11:2 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 7 G
with 5 H, 1 HR, a 1.27 G-F, and a 2.31 ERA for A Fort Worth(Mid)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Spending the last two summers in the Mexican League allowed Soria to gain needed experience in a comfortable environment, and this fall he wowed scouts in the Mexican Pacific League, compiling a 9-1 record and 2.09 ERA on a 74:19 K:BB in 73.1 IP over 12 GS. Of course, I don't expect him to post particularly impressive stats given the woeful support provided by the Royals, but Soria also ranks as one of the lowest risk players selected this year. While you shouldn't risk rostering him during your draft, he just might emerge as a decent option later in the year, perhaps even in Kansas City's rotation.

3. Chicago Cubs: Josh Hamilton, OF, TB; 25, B:L, T:L.
Traded to Cincinnati for cash.
13/50 for .260/.327/.360 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 5:11 BB:K for A- Hudson Valley(NYP).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Seemingly a better fit in Jim Bowden's always-athletic outfield corps in Washington, Hamilton probably ranks as the highest-risk, highest-upside player in the history of the Rule 5 draft. The former #1 overall pick could thrive if the Reds provide him the necessary support system, however due to Hamilton's history of substance abuse and health problems, I don't expect him to emerge as a viable fantasy option. Let someone else take the gamble here unless you're seeking anyone with upside during Dollar Days to complete your roster. Hamilton remains far more likely to post 250 at-bats of a .200 BA than to emerge as a useful contributor in Cincinnati.

4. Pittsburgh: Sean White, Reliever, ATL; 25, B:R, T:R.
Traded to Seattle for cash.
5-6 and 1 Save on a 73:43 K:BB in 102.1 IP over 16 GS(21G)
with 124 H, 3 HR, a 2.29 G-F, and a 4.40 ERA for AA Mississippi(SL).
0-0 on a 6:0 K:BB in 7 IP over 3 G
with 3 HR, 0 HR, a 6.50 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for R Braves(GCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 33%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Moving to the Mariners could result in a welcome career change for White, who appears far more likely to succeed in the majors now that he seems set to open 2007 in Seattle's bullpen. His high groundball rate should lead to a relatively respectable ERA despite an expectedly skill set. Although he doesn't look like someone to target in any format, White also shouldn't hurt you if needed as short-term roster filler.

5. Baltimore: Alfredo Simon, Reliever, TEX; 25, B:R, T:R.
Traded to Philadelphia for 2006 Rule 5 pick Adam Donachie and cash.
9-6 on a 35:19 K:BB in 52 IP over 10 GS
with 76 H, 8 HR, a 2.05 G-F, and a 6.75 ERA for AAA Fresno(PCL).
2-4 on a 35:14 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 7 GS(18G)
with 43 H, 7 HR, a 1.35 G-F, and a 6.44 ERA for A+ San Jose(Cal)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Texas emerged as the real winner here as Jon Daniels signed Simon as a minor league free agent from San Francisco and then grabbed the $50K from Baltimore for his rights. While Simon's skill set hints at potential for big league success, I absolutely can't see him pitching effectively for the Phillies despite the club's general lack of bullpen depth. He shouldn't break camp in the majors, and after the Rangers see him struggle during spring training, Simon will head to the Phillies' minors after Texas declines to accept him back.

6. Washington: Jesus Flores, C, NYM; 22, B:R, T:R.
114/429 for .266/.335/.487 with 21 HR, 70 RBI, 66 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 28:127 BB:K for A+ St. Lucie(FSL)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Backup catcher.
Fantasy Potential: Easily the best prospect selected in this year's draft, Jim Bowden took full advantage of the Nationals' spartan catching depth by stealing one of the Mets' best prospects. Already possessing big league-caliber defensive skills, Flores undoubtedly will see his averages suffer in 2007. Washington fans shouldn't care since the youngster already looks like the Nats' third-best position prospect after only Kory Casto and 2006 first rounder Chris Marrero, making him an absolute steal for $50K. Of course, Flores also doesn't belong on any fantasy roster due to the high likelihood we'll see a .200 BA from him. Merely monitor his development with an eye on owning him in 2009 or 2010 after he receives at least a full year in the upper minors.

7. Milwaukee: Edward Campusano, Reliever, CHC; 24, B:L, T:L.
Traded to Detroit for cash.
2-1 and 4 Saves on a 34:8 K:BB in 25.2 IP over 18 G
with 22 H, 2 HR, a .91 G-F, and a 1.75 ERA for AA West Tenn(SL).
0-0 and 21 Saves on a 47:9 K:BB in 29.2 IP over 26 G
with 16 H, 0 HR, a 1.93 G-F, and a 1.21 ERA for Peoria(Mid).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Don't be shocked if Campusano finishes 2007 with more value than the departed Jamie Walker, who landed a three-year deal from Baltimore after a career-year from the 35-year-old. Campusano belonged on the Cubs' 40-man roster, and although I don't see why the Brewers didn't keep him, he looks like a great fit for Detroit if the Tigers opt to keep a second southpaw in the bullpen alongside former Rule 5 acquisition Wil Ledezma. With a history of dominant performances in the lower minors and surprisingly limited downside, Campusano only needs to impress Jim Leyland during camp to embark on an extended big league career.

8. Cincinnati: Jared Burton, Reliever, OAK; 25, B:R, T:R.
6-5 on a 66:27 K:BB in 74 IP over 53 G
with 71 H, 7 HR, a 1.11 G-F, and a 4.14 ERA for AA Midland(TL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: With veterans Dave Weathers, Mike Stanton, Todd Coffey, Rheal Cormier, Matt Belisle, and Bill Bray all looking like mortal locks to break camp with the Reds, Burton only will make the team if Gary Majewski remains on the DL and he outpitches the other dozen or so more experienced options expected in Cincinnati camp. Even if makes the team, Burton's skills to date don't indicate much potential of immediate success in the majors, leaving me with no reason to recommend him in any fantasy format.

9. Houston: Lincoln Holdzkom, Reliever, CHC; 24, B:R, T:R.
2-3 on a 27:10 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 18 G
with 25 H, 0 HR, a 3.18 G-F, and a 1.95 ERA for AA West Tenn(SL).
0-0 on a 6:2 K:BB in 5 IP over 2 G
with 3 H, 0 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for A+ Daytona(FSL).
0-0 on a 10:3 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 1 GS(5G)
with 11 H, 0 HR, a 8.50 G-F, and a 2.08 ERA for R Cubs(AZL)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: I just don't see Holdzkom breaking camp in a bullpen likely to include Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, Dave Borkowski, Trever Miller, and Fernando Nieve. Yes, the Astros could keep the former Florida prospect after the Cubs foolishly exposed Holdzkom to scouts during the AFL, and given his strikeout and groundball rates Holdzkom just might remain effective in Houston. However, given his lack of experience in the upper minors prior to 2006, he ranks among the riskiest picks in this year's Rule 5 draft.

10. Philadelphia: Adam Donachie, C, KC; 22, B:R, T:R.
Traded with cash to Baltimore for 2006 Rule 5 pick Alfredo Simon.
18/94 for .191/.325/.309 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 21 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 19:20 BB:K for AA Wichita(TL).
57/210 for .271/.365/.414 with 6 HR, 21 RBI, 32 R, 0/1 SB%
and a 31:46 BB:K for A+ High Desert(Cal).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 33%.
Probable Role if Kept: Backup catcher.
Fantasy Potential: Solid defense and decent plate discipline make Donachie a good fit for the Orioles, who lack any high-upside catchers between Ramon Hernandez and 2005 first rounder Brandon Snyder. Of course, I fully expect Baltimore to keep Paul Bako instead of Donachie due to the club's ridiculously impertinent mindset to avoid adding young talent whenever possible, and even if Donachie sticks, his lack of success at the plate above A-ball leaves little hope for him to contribute positively in the majors in 2007, regardless of his respectable long-term prospects.

11. Boston: Nick DeBarr, Reliever, TB; 23, B:R, T:R.
4-3 and 9 Saves on a 61:17 K:BB in 69 IP over 40 G
with 61 H, 3 HR, a 1.81 G-F, and a 2.74 ERA for A+ Visalia(Cal)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 1%.
Probable Role if Kept: Mop-up man.
Fantasy Potential: While we admire the Red Sox for taking a look at an undervalued Rule 5 reliever in each of the past few drafts, if Colter Bean and Jamie Vermilyea couldn't earn roster spots, DeBarr isn't going to receive an opportunity over Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen. DeBarr's best hope rests with impressing during camp and then failing to clear waivers after Boston offers him back to Tampa.

12. Toronto: Jason Smith, IF, CHC; 29, B:L, T:R.
26/99 for .263/.324/.424 with 5 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 7:29 BB:K for Colorado.
41/141 for .291/.354/.511 with 4 HR, 23 RBI, 26 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 15:41 BB:K for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Simply a nonsensical pick by the Jays, Smith's only purpose is to keep Russ Adams in the minors instead of pushing Royce Clayton and John McDonald for playing time in Toronto. While Smith isn't a bad utilityman to employ alongside a defensive specialist like McDonald, I don't understand why Toronto didn't just sign Smith to a major league contract in the first place, or perhaps just add one of the dozen more experienced free agents available to fill this relatively unimportant role. A smarter club would have gambled on a AAAA starter while shifting free agent money from the highly over-inflated pitching market to the remarkably reasonably-priced infield options still filling the marketplace.

13. San Diego: Kevin Cameron, Reliever, MIN; 27, B:R, T:R.
6-4 on a 65:26 K:BB in 66.1 IP over 40 G
with 53 H, 2 HR, a 2.19 G-F, and a 2.98 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: As Cameron's profile barely differs from recent Padres' relievers like Jon Adkins, Scott Cassidy, and Brian Sweeney, he easily could adjust from facing Triple-A hitters to the majors in the forgiving environs of PETCO. I can't see San Diego spending the money for Cameron unless they expect him to break camp in the majors, so even though the bullpen already seems loaded, Cameron certainly could earn a spot with a good spring. Conversely, any extended struggles will result in a quick trip to the waiver wire as the Padres also will not hesitate to cut their essentially free relievers if another AAA option appears a better choice during the year.

14. Oakland: Jay Marshall, Reliever, CHW; 23, B:L, T:L.
5-1 and 4 Saves on a 44:8 K:BB in 62 IP over 58 G
with 47 H, 2 HR, a 4.00 G-F, and a 1.02 ERA for A+ Winston-Salem(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: With six relievers already assured roster spots in Oakland, including southpaws Alan Embree and Joe Kennedy, Marshall needs to outpitch everyone else in camp and offer more potential than a fourteenth position player to remain with the Athletics. Other contenders for that twenty-fifth roster spot include Chad Gaudin, Brad Halsey, Ron Flores, Santiago Casilla, Jason Windsor, Shane Komine, and even fellow Rule 5 pick Ryan Goleski. Yes, Marshall certainly could succeed if given the opportunity, but considering he didn't even dominate in A-ball and can't afford any extended struggles, he appears a particularly poor bet for 2007 in Oakland.

15. Minnesota: Alejandro Machado, UT, WAS; 24, B:S, T:R.
97/373 for .260/.356/.346 with 4 HR, 32 RBI, 46 R, 21/27 SB%,
and a 52:51 BB:K for AAA Pawtucket(IL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utility infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Stolen from the Nationals after Washington signed him to a minor league contract, Machado owns a skill combination that has intrigued me for the past few years. With good speed and a respectable batting average supported by excellent plate discipline, he offers a perfect bridge if Luis Castillo hits the DL and the Twins don't want to rush Alexi Casilla. Machado also can cover most infield and outfield positions if needed, so although he seems a weird choice for Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire, he could prosper for both Minnesota and fantasy teams if kept in the majors.

16. New York Yankees: Josh Phelps, DH/1B, BAL; 28, B:, T:.
142/468 for .303/.366/.524 with 24 HR, 90 RBI, 59 R, 6/7 SB%,
and a 38:126 BB:K for AAA Toledo(IL)
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Platoon first baseman.
Fantasy Potential: An impressive power prospect with the Blue Jays only a couple years ago, Phelps slipped to the minors with Tampa in 2005 and then spent all of 2006 with the Tiger's Triple-A affiliate, stuck behind Chris Shelton, Dmitri Young, and eventually Sean Casey. He seemingly found a good situation with the Orioles, though this selection by the Yankees at least gives him a shot at the playoffs. The problem for Phelps is that, even if he beats out Andy Phillips for the right to platoon with whatever defense-oriented veteran New York signs, he won't receive sufficient at-bats to accumulate more than a few bucks of fantasy value. Plus, the Yankees should deal for someone like Mike Sweeney by the deadline, leaving Phelps only a couple of months to prove he belongs in a lineup otherwise full of past, current, and future All-Stars. I don't consider him a good buy for more than a couple of bucks.

Round Two

1. Washington: Levale Speigner, Reliever, MIN; 26, B:R, T:R.
1-1 and 1 Save on a 8:5 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 9 G
with 16 H, 1 HR, a 1.14 G-F, and a 4.97 ERA for AAA Rochester(IL).
3-2 and 13 Saves on a 37:14 K:BB in 58 IP over 40 G
with 61 H, 5 HR, a 2.18 G-F, and a 3.26 ERA for AA New Britain(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 80%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: As I mentioned when reviewing Speigner yesterday with Washington's prospects, he seems likely to make the Nationals, albeit not in a capacity where he'll earn much positive fantasy value barring a complete injury-related meltdown of the club's current relief corps.

2. Philadelphia: Jim Ed Warden, Reliever, CLE; 27 B:R, T:R.
5-2 and 11 Saves on a 47:29 K:BB in 59 IP over 55 G
with 35 H, 3 HR, a 1.18 G-F, and a 2.90 ERA for AA Akron(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 33%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Though the Phillies gambled on three Rule 5 picks, only Warden appears reasonably likely to stick with the big league club. The 6'7" reliever frequently suffers from control problems, but his 8.5 career strikeout rate in the minors gives him decent value to a team with as many bullpen questions as Philadelphia. I don't see him as a viable fantasy roster, but he may surprise if Pat Gillick give him a chance in 2007.

Round Three

1. Philadelphia: Ryan Budde, C, LAA; , B:, T:.
50/215 for .233/.324/.414 with 8 HR, 33 RBI, 32 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 22:55 BB:K for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 1%.
Probable Role if Kept: Backup catcher.
Fantasy Potential: Considering Budde posted a .720 OPS at any level despite extended stints at both Salt Lake and Rancho Cucamonga, even a summer spent in CB Park shouldn't lead to positive fantasy value for him. While I applaud Pat Gillick for seeking to add organization depth in this draft, I neither expect Budde to break camp with the Phillies nor to post positive fantasy value even if he sneaks onto the 25-man roster.

I'll continue tomorrow with the minor league phase of the 2006 Rule 5 draft.

Today's Fantasy Rx: After two years that saw teams select only a dozen players and a new CBA that significantly reduced the pool of eligible players, clubs drafted nineteen players this year, a return near 2003 levels. Of the dozen taken in 2005, only three players remained in the majors all year, lefty reliever Fabio Castro, dealt from Texas to Philadelphia during the summer, Pirates' fifth starter and big league veteran Victor Santos, and Dan Uggla, who leapt from Arizona's AA squad to the NL All-Star team in less than a year. Perhaps the success of Uggla and previous Rule 5 steal Johan Santana create more willingness among organizations to gamble here, a meme clearly supported by the Reds' acquisition of Josh Hamilton.

Unfortunately, other than Jesus Flores and possibly Hamilton, no one selected this year look likely to develop into more than solid role players. Only journeymen Josh Phelps and Alejandro Machado offer much immediate fantasy upside, and only Kevin Cameron appears reasonably prepared to emerge as a decent mid-season option. Avoiding Rule 5 picks remains the best plan for the vast majority of fantasy owners, especially since while I can easily envision big league roles in 2007 for many of these players, history suggests that only four-to-six Rule 5 draftees will finish next season with new franchises. Along with Phelps and Jason Smith, Soria, Flores, and Machado appear most likely to stick, albeit not in respective situations that warrant their selections in spring drafts.