Rotohelp  
August
25th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Our Philosophy

2006 AL LPR: Week 21
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 23rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - C.C. Sabathia(24555)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(24544)
AXax - Francisco Liriano(34440)
ABX - Jeremy Bonderman(43440)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5442434523)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(3445443445)
abcxyz - Juan Rincon(4135552424)
abxyz - Scot Shields(4452343444)
abcx - J.J. Putz(3544325244)
Cax - Dennys Reyes(5553535435)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(1254333442)

Otsuka appears as solid as any Rangers' closer in recent memory. While he may possess more long-term value to the club in middle relief, he at least appears a solid $25-30 value for the balance of this year.


2
ABY - Felix Hernandez(44340)
BXY - Roy Halladay(33344)
B - Josh Beckett(32532)
X - Kevin Millwood(33342)
Y - Bartolo Colon(34340)

3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(3354313432)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(4304454453)
abxy - Huston Street(1554445342)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(4435443335)
aby - Todd Jones(5455325553)


3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(32435)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(04532)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(02543)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(33422)

abxyz - Mike Timlin(3414453103)
bcyz - Kiko Calero(4034453532)
Travis Harper(2344521542)
Kevin Gregg(4343433422)


A
CXZ - Jake Westbrook(43533)
BY - Rich Harden(44400)
B - Erik Bedard(34443)
X - Mike Mussina(53450)
Adam Loewen(44045)
Jon Garland(33344)
Joe Saunders(34502)
Jered Weaver(23144)

Two slow starters, Loewen and Garland, look like surprisingly good bets right now, worthy of your consideration in any league.


B
CX - Cory Lidle(35034)
XY - Kelvim Escobar(45244)
Jose Contreras(23433)
Barry Zito(33114)
John Lackey(40320)
Jae Weong Seo(02420)

Y - Hector Carrasco(2440522224)
a - Scott Downs(4055423444)


C
Nate Robertson(34343)
Odalis Perez(02344)
Z - Carl Pavano

Za - Joe Kennedy(2424505543)


X
James Shields(34543)
Dan Haren(45532)
Luke Hudson(43303)


Y
Esteban Loaiza(43354)


Z
David Wells(04214)
Mark Buehrle(41422)


a
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(4445455454)
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(3553354442)
bcxy - Kyle Farnsworth(4534255434)
bcxy - Mike MacDougal(4005445254)
bxy - Bobby Jenks(2344354244)
b - Ambiorix Burgos(2445233233)
x - Pat Neshek(3344554553)
x - Jon Papelbon(4540344534)
x - Brandon League(5443354552)
x - Joe Nelson(3334444553)
x - Scott Feldman(4443343434)
x - C.J. Wilson(5334533554)
x - Mark Lowe(4335444502)
x - Wes Littleton(2453343344)
x - Fausto Carmona(5303344233)
Shawn Camp(5342452553)
Matt Smith(5224234443)
Fernando Cabrera(2542124344)
Rafael Perez(3355143402)

Nelson won't dominate anyone in Kansas City, but he'll hold the closer's job until the Royals start looking for someone with more upside this winter.


b
cyz - Rafael Betancourt(3443323224)
cz - Octavio Dotel(3433)
yz - Ron Villone(3243422301)
y - David Riske(4353242334)
y - George Sherrill(4345410303)
y - Tim Byrdak(1440323432)
y - Jay Witasick(233212324)
Scott Sauerbeck(1232450420)


c
xz - Todd Williams(4134431535)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
x - J.C. Romero(0043233453)
z - Brendan Donnelly(4544331045)
z - LaTroy Hawkins(2344151442)
z - Keith Foulke(3353313244)
z - Brian Bruney(43)
Mike Myers(0434433505)
Dan Miceli(3231535233)
Brian Meadows(2222223025)


x
y - Justin Speier(4454534441)
y - Fernando Rodney(4352345353)
Joel Zumaya(4433425234)
Jimmy Gobble(3343500445)
Joaquin Benoit(5253033343)
Craig Hansen(3352322422)
Sean Green(3333334333)


y
z - Jason Frasor(2333350533)
Ron Flores(3552302352)
Manny Delcarmen(3244422223)
Chris Ray(3232341335)
Neal Cotts(3354121323)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(34343)

Javier Lopez(5240503330)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

After extensively reviewing our team here, we found that our awful offensive performance still positions us to gain several points in the following weeks if we deploy our players properly. We can improve the most in BA and steals, perhaps as many as a dozen points in our league if we grab the right guys. So after considering perhaps three dozen players, we settled on spending our roster expansion moves on Ian Kinsler and Bobby Abreu, who respectively replace Howie Kendrick and an OF spot normally filled with Nick Swisher, Chad Tracy, or Pat Burrell. Kinsler gives us an all-around solid player at second base and an extra 350 of cap room while Abreu, batting third for the Yankees, offers more 5x5 upside than almost anyone in the majors.

However, with three purchases remaining, we also feel comfortable spending one on Takashi Saito and cutting Mark Buehrle, who we simply refuse to deploy again. Saito possesses the best skills among the inexpensive closers and allows us to sit both Ryan Dempster and the injured Huston Street. Four saves equals three more points for us, the Dodgers offer plenty of save opportunities, and Saito's limited downside makes him a far safer player to own than Akinori Otsuka or Joe Borowski.

While we didn't intend to drop to twelve starters here, we need to protect our qualitative points even at the expense of wins and strikeouts. Employing Francisco Liriano and even Haren or Lackey during periods where they aren't scheduled to pitch creates the cap room necessary to max our offense, a sensible move even though purchasing Andy Pettitte truly tempted us. Perhaps we'll add a starter in a couple of weeks with one of our last two moves, especially since we possess backups every except shortstop, but we like the roster these moves allow us to field for the rest of the season.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sat:@CHW(J.Contreras)
Roy Oswalt: No start.
Pedro Martinez: No start(DL)
Chris Carpenter: Fri:CHC(Ju.Mateo)
Randy Johnson: No start.
Jake Peavy: Sun:@COL(A.Cook)
Roy Halladay: Sat:KC(Run.Hernandez)
Curt Schilling: Fri:@SEA(J.Woods)
Felix Hernandez: No start.
John Lackey: Fri:NYY(Jar.Wright)
Dan Haren: Sun:@TEX(V.Padilla)
Francisco Liriano: No start(DL)

We'll supplement the automatic choices of Carpenter, Halladay, and Schilling with the slightly riskier options of Santana, Lackey, and Haren since we just can't risk Peavy at Coors despite the humidor. The addition of Saito results in Dempster joining Street on the bench.

On the other side of the ball, Kinsler and Abreu respectively send Kendrick and Swisher to the bench. Tex returns to the lineup for the shockingly slumping David Wright, pushing Encarnacion to third. Willingham subs for Victor for cap reasons, and then Tracy and Burrell stay glued to the bench until they show some upside.

Rotohelp.com(8th lg; 209th overall)
Week 21b: August 25-August 27

 
C	Joe Mauer		770 
C	Josh Willingham		340
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Ian Kinsler		400
3B	Garrett Atkins		610 
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	600
SS	Felipe Lopez		1070
SS	Jose Reyes		1030
OF	Bobby Abreu		1790 
OF	Jason Bay		1380 
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040 
OF	Corey Patterson		910
OF	Jermaine Dye		840 
DH	Albert Pujols		2060
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470 

SP	Johan Santana		1960
SP	Chris Carpenter		1550
SP	Roy Halladay		1230 
SP	Curt Schilling		1070 
SP	John Lackey		940 
SP	Dan Haren		860
RP	J.J. Putz		890 
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820
RP	Takashi Saito		750

Total Salary for Week 21b:	29870


Today's Fantasy Rx: Jae Seo's injury returns Jason Hammel to the Rays' rotation. Although neither his 5-9 record nor 4.23 ERA for AAA Durham(IL) particularly intrigue me, registering a 117:36 K:BB in 127.2 IP with 133 H and 11 allowed suggests plenty of upside. Teams looking toward next year definitely should ante a buck or two here while current contenders might want to stash Hammel in the hope of riding a late-season hot streak.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
Daily Fantasy Rx
Out of the Frying Pan

Article Archives
Advertise on
Rotohelp
All content ©2001-18 Rotohelp, Inc. All rights reserved. PO Box 72054 Roselle, IL 60172.
Please send your comments, suggestions, and complaints to: admin@rotohelp.com.