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July
28th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 AL LPR: Week 17
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through July 26th . Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2 - C.C. Sabathia(24402)
AXax - Francisco Liriano(54344)
ABX - Jeremy Bonderman(44243)
AB - John Lackey(44504)
B - Jose Contreras(33344)
Justin Verlander(54535)

After nearly four months of quality starts and a dozen victories, albeit without dominating many teams, Verlander finally joins Bonderman at the top of these rankings. Of course, everyone on here save Sabathia continues to excel right now, making them your top trade targets in almost any league.

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4523324555)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(4345434423)
abcxyz - Juan Rincon(5335353345)
abcyz - Francisco Cordero(2334444332)
abxyz - Scot Shields(5415444554)
abcx - J.J. Putz(5443533433)
abxy - Bobby Jenks(3545432434)
BYx - Hector Carrasco(3443353334)
Cax - Dennys Reyes(4333553544)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(3443544223)

I also can't believe Reyes secured this spot, but given the support provided by his fellow relievers on the Twins, he seems surprisingly safe for teams looking for low-risk roster filler.


2
ABY - Felix Hernandez(44525)
BXY - Roy Halladay(35333)
AX - Kevin Millwood(30453)
BC - Matt Clement(40050)
B - Josh Beckett(33045)
Y - Bartolo Colon(34340)

3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(3133342323)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(4553421434)
abxy - Huston Street(5525534545)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(4354524532)
aby - Todd Jones(4343542355)

Street seems as a solid as any closer right now, so I see no reason he shouldn't save as many as twenty games over the balance of the season.


3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(34543)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(03450)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(24543)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(22324)

abxyz - Mike Timlin(3443444333)
bcyz - Kiko Calero(5335254253)
Kevin Gregg(3443444343)
Travis Harper(3234452154)


A
BCXYZ - Johan Santana(34434)
BY - Rich Harden(44400)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(53403)
B - Erik Bedard(54554)
X - Jered Weaver(34442)
X - Mike Mussina(03355)
Jon Garland(14444)
Jeremy Sowers(44024)
Zach Miner(34400)


B
XY - Kelvim Escobar(40313)
Barry Zito(33242)
Jae Weong Seo(13121)

a - Scott Downs(5234340554)


C
Odalis Perez(40000)
Nate Robertson(33233)

Za - Joe Kennedy(3043242450)
Z - Carl Pavano


X
Dan Haren(53443)
Javier Vazquez(13433)
Tim Corcoran(33330)


Y
Esteban Loaiza(22330)


Z
Mark Buehrle(23021)
David Wells(00)


a
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(3444445445)
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(4535244234)
xy - Manny Delcarmen(5554344343)
xy - Chris Ray(5423254532)
b - Ambiorix Burgos(3254243335)
x - Craig Hansen(4343453435)
x - Fausto Carmona(5353354355)
x - Scott Feldman(5244433434)
x - Joe Nelson(1525435344)
x - Jon Papelbon(3343334534)
y - Neal Cotts(5442451323)
z - Javier Lopez(4452405033)
Matt Thornton(5442403455)
Chris Britton(5425124454)
Rick Bauer(3144453434)
Kyle Lohse(0445345332)
Brian Sikorski(4432213444)
Matt Smith(5224234443)
Fernando Cabrera(2253442542)
Rafael Perez(3355143402)

Despite an initial lack of save opportunities, Fausto Carmona appears fully prepared to close for Cleveland indefinitely. He owns the skills to take advantage of his current situation, especially with most of his competition suffering from command or health issues.


b
cxyz - Rafael Betancourt(3330444334)
cxy - Kyle Farnsworth(4344413454)
xyz - Ron Villone(3323333304)
cy - Mike MacDougal(53454)
cz - Octavio Dotel
yz - Rudy Seanez(2530424245)
y - David Riske(4342334124)
y - George Sherrill(5352335422)
y - Scott Schoeneweis(4242330044)
y - Jay Witasick(23321)
Scott Sauerbeck(3431232450)
Tyler Walker(3334332432)

MacDougal's move to the White Sox disappoints us thanks to the two leagues where we just lost a closer, but he still remains reasonably valuable and at least might snag a few saves if Ozzie rests Jenks.


c
xz - Todd Williams(3413453235)
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(3334434124)
yz - Guillermo Mota(3452333324)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
x - J.C. Romero(4434343343)
z - Brendan Donnelly(3453350254)
z - LaTroy Hawkins(2243335523)
z - Keith Foulke(4133353313)
Brian Meadows(4543442322)
Mike Myers(0503523234)


x
y - Justin Speier(3233344545)
y - Fernando Rodney(3503333423)
C.J. Wilson(4534234344)
Rafael Soriano(4433245245)
Joaquin Benoit(3414534525)
Kurt Birkins(4542335501)
Jamie Walker(3332344443)
Jimmy Gobble(1343432534)
Joel Zumaya(3333543432)
Sean Green(3351433333)


y
z - Jason Frasor(4325323333)
Ron Flores(3235523023)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(30330)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sun:DET(J.Bonderman)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:ARI(J.Cruz)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@ATL(Ho.Ramirez)
Chris Carpenter: Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano)
Randy Johnson: Sat:TB(J.Seo)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: Sun:@OAK(S.Komine)
Mark Buehrle: No start.
Curt Schilling: Sun:LAA(J.Lackey)
Felix Hernandez: Fri:@CLE(J.Sowers)
John Lackey: Sun:@BOS(C.Schilling)
Dan Haren: No start.
Francisco Liriano: Fri:DET(Z.Miner)

With a surprising wealth of decent options, Santana, Randy, Halladay, Felix, and Liriano are all easy calls. Due to cap reasons, Schilling, who's pitching great at home, edges Oswalt, Pedro, and the hot Carpenter, even though he faces Lackey on Sunday. Street also replaces Dempster.

We lack the cap room to deploy Victor and don't trust the performances of Encarnacion or Swisher, however with Texas at home against Kansas, we can't resist deploying Tex for Figgins.

Rotohelp.com(12th lg; 318th overall)
Week 17b: July 28-July 30

 
C	Joe Mauer		770 
C	Josh Willingham		340
1B	Travis Hafner		1180 
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620 
3B	David Wright		1210
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Felipe Lopez		1070
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
OF	Jason Bay		1380 
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Chad Tracy		1020 
OF	Corey Patterson		910 
OF	Jermaine Dye		840
DH	Albert Pujols		2060 
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470

SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Randy Johnson		1360
SP	Roy Halladay		1230 
SP	Curt Schilling		1070
SP	Felix Hernandez		960 
SP	Francisco Liriano		700 
RP	Huston Street		1300
RP	J.J. Putz		890
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 17b:	29840


Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm impressed with Dayton Moore's early record of moves in Kansas City, particularly in regard to pitching staff. Although he seemingly jumped the gun on moving MacDougal, sending Tony Graffanino for Jorge de la Rosa adds a youngster with as much upside as any pitcher in the system save Zach Greinke and maybe Denny Bautista. Turning Elmer Dessens into Odalis Perez and a couple of interesting A-ball prospects qualifies as an absolute coup, especially with the Dodgers paying for much of the difference in salaries. Perez still possesses excellent control, and since Kauffman Stadium reduces homers more than any park in the league, I fully anticipate a significant rebound for the former top lefty. Consider a significant FAAB bid on Perez if you need pitching, as well as a token ante for de la Rosa if building for the future.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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