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June
17th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 11
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 14th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(42254)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(45333)
3AC - Brad Penny(50444)
3AX - Bronson Arroyo(42443)
ABXY - Brandon Webb(54544)
AX - Chris Capuano(33334)
Z - Tim Hudson(33533)
Chan Ho Park(04434)

3abcxyz - Tom Gordon(3234452554)
abcx - Jose Mesa(3444434545)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(3054345444)
ax - Ramon Ramirez(4343543515)
ax - Brandon Lyon(4332545424)
ax - Adam Wainwright(3235444323)
a - David Borkowski(4543345244)
a - Josh Hancock(3433421553)
x - Todd Coffey(5424225423)

A year ago I don't think I ever would have believed that I'd see a week with Park and Mesa at this level, not to mention the surprising development of pitchers like Jeremy Accardo and Josh Hancock. NL pitchers enjoyed a shockingly good week, so don't be surprised if several of these guys quickly disappear back down the ranking.


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(33543)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(25303)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(31433)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(03235)
B - Dontrelle Willis(32342)
Zach Duke(42332)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4433453444)
BCZabxy - Aaron Heilman(3442133432)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(5313433435)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(3352453243)
axy - Arthur Rhodes(3345444234)
ax - Aaron Fultz(5553445243)


3
BCYZ - Ben Sheets(3550)
C - Glendon Rusch(50040)
Livan Hernandez(24221)

abcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(2413253354)
abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(3453440543)
bcyz - Eric Gagne(44)
cz - Salomon Torres(3343324424)
z - Trever Miller(4325443433)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(44414)
BXY - Derek Lowe(44431)
CX - Jason Schmidt(34443)
B - Brett Myers(44200)
X - Josh Johnson(45543)
z - Juan Cruz(20453)
Aaron Harang(54432)
Matt Cain(34404)
Ricky Nolasco(04054)
Aaron Sele(45150)
Jamey Wright(40404)
Eric Milton(24334)
Tomo Ohka(04043)
Mike Thompson(42043)
Tony Armas(24420)


B
CX - Cory Lidle(43333)
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(33452)
C - Doug Davis(30532)
Y - Paul Maholm(43332)
Jon Lieber(34210)

b - Matt Belisle(3235222435)
Jae Weong Seo(44232)


C
YZ - Greg Maddux(43233)
by - Kerry Wood(4350)
Z - Oliver Perez(34003)
Matt Morris(22535)
Odalis Perez(34000)
Dave Williams(13130)


X
Elizardo Ramirez(43435)


Y
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4422454425)


Z
Jason Marquis(24323)
Mark Mulder(43020)

John Van Benschoten


a
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(5355433444)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(2554345442)
bcxy - Chad Bradford(4443344444)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(5343342324)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(3443533323)
cxyz - Bob Howry(4443433445)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(5442344424)
bxy - Brad Thompson(4342444231)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(2343353534)
bxy - Rheal Cormier(3245530532)
cxz - Steve Kline(3454333444)
xyz - Chris Hammond(4333544154)
bx - Randy Flores(2433544433)
by - Dan Wheeler(4514344542)
cx - Pedro Feliciano(3345443454)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(4545334343)
cz - Brian Shouse(0321244444)
xy - Chad Cordero(5544434342)
xy - Jonathan Broxton(3335530434)
xz - Greg Aquino(4443442334)
xz - Gary Majewski(4240454335)
x - Takashi Saito(2445445445)
x - Jorge Julio(5545352545)
x - Randy Messenger(3455543450)
x - Joe Beimel(2542454334)
x - Damaso Marte(5235451245)
x - Tyler Johnson(0423551445)
x - Matt Wise(3434543224)
z - Alan Embree(2440553523)
Geoff Geary(2544445234)
Tim Hamulack(0344414414)
Rick White(2424334355)
Logan Kensing(2552452532)
Matt Capps(2444432240)
Brian Sweeney(4413234342)
Scott Cassidy(1054532034)


b
y - Clay Hensley(34303)

cxy - Jose Valverde(3223334323)
cyz - Heath Bell(44313355)
cyz - Danny Kolb(2234245531)
cyz - Braden Looper(4234222535)
cyz - Chris Reitsma(3553343322)
cyz - Tim Worrell(5433032143)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Will Ohman(4433333433)
xy - Brian Shackelford(3334034430)
xz - Duaner Sanchez(4253442233)
c - John Grabow(3302445335)
x - Scott Eyre(5551433311)
x - Russ Springer(1433442243)
x - Roberto Novoa(3014333253)
y - Macay McBride(5552322353)
y - David Weathers(3353234240)
y - Brandon Medders(2334533312)
y - Mike Gallo(0335223053)
y - Mike Wuertz(4403)
y - Jonah Bayliss
Mike Remlinger(5432235430)
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Blaine Boyer(23)
Ryan Wagner


c
xz - Ray King(4043444413)
z - Tyler Yates(25425444)
z - Armando Benitez(4311444323)
Esteban Yan(3332525424)
Oscar Villarreal(3342133400)
Randy Choate(5)
Mike Adams(21)
Doug Brocail


x
z - Danys Baez(3440344243)
Jon Adkins(3344334354)
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Saul Rivera(3533334343)
Scott Dohmann(3343304353)
Joe Borowski(2243435333)


y
Scott Munter(4254340341)
Mike Burns(324322444)
Jose Capellan(3532441332)
Jay Bergmann(0443233412)
Terry Mulholland(33330)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: No NL starter challenges Brandon Webb's supremacy right now, but I also don't envision the Diamondbacks' ace maintaining this level of excellence indefinitely. Rather than pay the going rate for the league's top pitcher when looking to deal for a starter, consider quieter success stories like Brad Penny or Chris Capuano. Riskier options include Chan Ho Park, Josh Johnson, Aaron Harang, Matt Cain, and Ricky Nolasco, all of whom demonstrate intriguing upside yet other than Park and maybe Harang, also possess plenty of downside.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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