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May
26th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 AL LPR: Week 8
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 24th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - C.C. Sabathia(23555)
A - Scott Kazmir(52554)
B - Jeremy Bonderman(52403)

abxyz - Scot Shields(4343534434)
BYa - Hector Carrasco(3442234345)


2
BXY - Roy Halladay(34445)
AX - Kevin Millwood(34045)
BC - Matt Clement(42240)
BY - Felix Hernandez(22503)
B - Josh Beckett(02542)
Y - Bartolo Colon(402)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3433242524)
3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(2132454333)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(2544443345)
abxy - Huston Street(5534453342)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(4224434434)
aby - Todd Jones(2553422445)


3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(44114)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(20)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(30321)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(34534)
C - Jeff Weaver(31004)

abxyz - Mike Timlin(4324345354)
bcyz - Kiko Calero(2145434143)
Travis Harper(3243202130)
Kevin Gregg(24322)


A
BCXYZ - Johan Santana(44453)
BXY - Rich Harden(34440)
BX - Jose Contreras(52433)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(25434)
C - Nate Robertson(55123)
X - Mike Mussina(35253)
Daniel Cabrera(45540)
Javier Vazquez(45213)


B
XY - Kelvim Escobar(45334)
Barry Zito(34423)
John Lackey(23423)
Erik Bedard(20231)

Scott Downs(3554253143)


C
Za - Joe Kennedy(3043242450)
Z - Carl Pavano
Dennys Reyes(454534401)
Bobby Madritsch

Despite recently faltering, Reyes pitched very well for a couple of weeks, suggesting he could serve as viable roster filler in deeper leagues.


X
Z - Mark Buehrle(23333)
Dan Haren(34335)
Casey Janssen(34433)
Kris Benson(30540)
Kameron Loe(33533)
Jarrod Washburn(33330)

While Janssen doesn't particularly impress me, his apparently limited downside gives him more value than I initially expected. He soon could secure a spot as both Toronto's permanent fourth starter and fill a similar role on many fantasy teams.


Y
Esteban Loaiza(0030)


Z
David Wells(0)


a
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(3555454342)
bcxyz - Juan Rincon(5555254334)
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(3534345354)
bcxyz - Bob Wickman(3334253544)
bcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(4543343253)
bcyz - Francisco Cordero(4453541444)
bcyz - Rafael Betancourt(3224503445)

Although Cordero's displaying slightly superior upside than Otsuka, don't expect to see a change in roles in the near future given the Rangers' success with their new bullpen alignment.

bcx - J.J. Putz(4544445335)
bxy - Bobby Jenks(5442504435)
cyz - Eddie Guardado(3544535504)
by - Scott Schoeneweis(1245205442)
xy - Fernando Rodney(4551343544)
xz - Elmer Dessens(5542445342)
b - Scott Sauerbeck(0430544545)
b - Ambiorix Burgos(5521522314)
c - Mike Myers(4502303505)
x - Matt Thornton(3433455544)
x - Fernando Cabrera(4344345434)
x - Jon Papelbon(5424342545)
x - Francisco Liriano(4332435445)
x - Ron Mahay(3534432344)
x - Pete Walker(2342354354)
x - Shawn Camp(3431534432)
Andy Sisco(5054450434)
Rick Bauer(4434223445)


b
cxy - Kyle Farnsworth(4344434333)
xyz - Rudy Seanez(0443333434)
xyz - Ron Villone(3335233343)
cz - Octavio Dotel
x - Tyler Walker(5445333334)
y - George Sherrill(4014450432)
y - David Riske(14)
y - Jay Witasick(233)
Bobby Seay(325535203)

With no glaring flaw and continued success in his new role, Walker should continue closing indefinitely in Tampa.


c
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(43022)

xz - LaTroy Hawkins(1414334332)
yz - Guillermo Mota(0252525421)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
x - Brian Meadows(1333345323)
z - Brendan Donnelly(4424352423)
z - Todd Williams(3425342225)
z - Antonio Alfonseca(2344242242)
z - Keith Foulke(5132334413)
z - John Halama(1243213431)
Esteban Yan(3334514333)
Dan Miceli(0424433231)
J.C. Romero(2323334423)


x
y - Chris Ray(3345334235)
C.J. Wilson(3343344534)
Vinnie Chulk(3334404433)
Joel Zumaya(5354333224)
Joaquin Benoit(4344352332)
Jason Davis(2353343342)
Jamie Walker(4335330034)
Rafael Soriano(3234313233)

I just don't see Zumaya offering a ton of upside this summer, especially given Jim Leyland's clear reluctance to let him start. Don't expect more than a few bucks of value by year's end, so feel free to include him when dealing with any rebuilding clubs looking to acquire future talent.


y
z - Jason Frasor(4332243401)
Neal Cotts(2445524224)
Cliff Politte(3233432522)
Justin Speier(3422422333)
Scott Erickson(2244)
Ron Flores(133413)
Manny Delcarmen(2253)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(23202)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

While purchasing Elmer Dessens in time for his two worst outings of the year easily ranks with the most disastrous single moves in our fantasy baseball career, we're not going to punt him instantly, especially since he should rebound over the next few weeks.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sun:SEA(J.Pineiro)
Roy Oswalt: No start.
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@FLO(Jo.Johnson)
Chris Carpenter: No start.
Randy Johnson: No start.
Jake Peavy: Sun:STL(M.Mulder)?
Roy Halladay: No start.
Mark Buehrle: No start.
Curt Schilling: Sat:TB(S.McClung)
Felix Hernandez: Fri:@MIN(F.Liriano)
John Lackey: Sun:BAL(A.Loewen?)
Dan Haren: No start.
Elmer Dessens: 3 Road at NYY.

Despite the Dessens disaster, Peavy's injury situation prompts us to leave Dessens deployed. Gonzalez also will replace Street, who heads to Texas.

Keeping Dessens also lets us flip Bay for Holliday, hopefully enabling us to ride the tail end of his hot streak.

Rotohelp.com(12th lg; 325th overall)
Week 8b: May 26-May 28

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Albert Pujols		2060
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210 
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	600 
SS	Felipe Lopez		1070
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
OF	Jason Bay		1380
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Chad Tracy		1040
OF	Nick Swisher		620 
OF	Joey Gathright		450
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470
DH	Travis Hafner		1180 

SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700 
SP	Curt Schilling		1070 
SP	Felix Hernandez		960
SP	John Lackey		940
SP	Elmer Dessens		520 
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180 
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 8b:	29690


Today's Fantasy Rx: The acquisition of Orlando Hernandez and Dave Williams by the Mets dramatically elevates both pitchers' fantasy values. Hernandez steps right into the rotation, and enabled by both Shea and New York's defense, should flourish in his new environment. While Williams heads to AAA Norfolk for now, he inevitably will join the rotation later this summer, and like Hernandez, will benefit from his surroundings to the extent that his currently poor roto value will slam upward. Attempt to add both players before their upcoming successes attract the attention of your competitors.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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