Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to the first week of our formal LPR rankings this season, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 3rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.

1
ABX - Jeremy Bonderman(30355)
ACX - Nate Robertson(40455)
BXY - Kelvim Escobar(40334)

Both Bonderman and Escobar regularly flirt with this skill level, but seeing Robertson here is somewhat shocking. Yet with the Tigers fielding baseball's best defense, he can focus on minimizing the walks that normally inflate his qualitative stats.

2
BCX - Matt Clement(40334)
BXY - Roy Halladay(33333)
BY - Felix Hernandez(40252)
B - Josh Beckett(35202)
X - Kevin Millwood(44233)
Y - Bartolo Colon(402)
C.C. Sabathia(02)

Halladay's mediocrity worries me, but thanks to his complete lack of downside, he remains an amazingly safe pitcher to own.

3bcyz - Mariano Rivera(354552445)
3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(344044342)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(3234434254)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(3442244344)
by - Huston Street(34325255)
by - Todd Jones(254435)

3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(35534)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(20)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(54031)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(43234)
C - Jeff Weaver(23403)

bcyz - Kiko Calero(3334421321)
byz - Mike Timlin(4342144432)
Travis Harper(2243243)
Kevin Gregg(243)

A
BXY - Rich Harden(34440)
BX - Jose Contreras(44524)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(43025)
B - Erik Bedard(54412)
X - Daniel Cabrera(34455)
X - Javier Vazquez(43444)
X - Mike Mussina(44543)
X - Jason Johnson(44433)
X - Joel Pineiro(45304)
X - Kenny Rogers(43334)
X - Jarrod Washburn(24433)
Z - Mark Buehrle(44532)
Scott Kazmir(34525)

Anyone watching Cabrera likely sees his rapid development. As expected, Leo Mazzone's tutelage will advance him toward superstar status. The return of Mike Mussina to dominance pleases me, but the bigger story here looks the continued improvement from the AL Central as Contreras, Westbrook, Vazquez, Johnson, Rogers, and Buehrle all look like solid values in any league. Lastly, Joel Pineiro's quiet resurgence suggests he might reemerge as a quality #2 by the second half, so generally monitor his development to see if he can avoid the Mariners' malaise.

B
CYZ - Johan Santana(32354)
John Lackey(54332)
Barry Zito(44323)

Y - Hector Carrasco(4234)
Scott Downs(32535)

C
Za - Joe Kennedy(4323043242)
Z - Carl Pavano
Dennys Reyes(4)
Bobby Madritsch

X
Cliff Lee(43343)
John Koronka(43324)
Ted Lilly(05334)
Kris Benson(53333)
Mike Maroth(35323)
Dan Haren(33333)

Consider this sextet among the AL's lowest risk pitchers. Even Koronka belongs on someone's roster in every AL league and most mixed leagues.

Y
Esteban Loaiza(0030)

Z
David Wells(0)

a
bcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(3444553454)
bcxyz - Juan Rincon(5354043535)
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(4342353355)
bcyz - Francisco Cordero(5243244544)
bxyz - Scot Shields(4254554443)
bxyz - Ron Villone(4445135533)
bcx - J.J. Putz(4345343545)
bxy - Bobby Jenks(3553424354)
bxy - Scott Schoeneweis(3454333124)
bx - Ambiorix Burgos(4344344535)
cx - Mike Myers(4533444502)
cz - Keith Foulke(4243244451)
cz - Brendan Donnelly(3451235244)
xy - Fernando Rodney(4454444245)
xy - Chris Ray(5555233345)
xz - Elmer Dessens(5445342445)
x - Jon Papelbon(5334454542)
x - Joaquin Benoit(4333545434)
x - Shawn Camp(3443034354)

Regular Rotohelp readers know about Dessens' performance and even Rodney's dominance, but I'm not a huge Shawn Camp fan. Seeing him appear here justifies the faith of our readers that added him early in the season, and although the Rays' relief corps remains highly volatile, hang onto him as long as his skills stay strong.

b
cyz - Joe Nathan(44443534)
cyz - Bob Wickman(4433342)
cyz - Rafael Betancourt(43322450)
cyz - Matt J. Miller(243331)
cy - Kyle Farnsworth(4223334434)
cz - Octavio Dotel
yz - Rudy Seanez(423240443)
y - George Sherrill(2553434014)
y - Jay Witasick(233)
y - David Riske(1)
Scott Sauerbeck(4033404305)
Tyler Walker(3044235302)
Bobby Seay(325535)

Only a lack of appearances to date keeps Nathan here. Continue to consider him one of the game's topc losers.

c
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(024)

xz - LaTroy Hawkins(3323335414)
yz - Eddie Guardado(2432342354)
yz - Guillermo Mota(3333222025)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
z - Danny Graves(3143244434)
z - Antonio Alfonseca(3342344242)
z - Brian Shouse(024504)
z - Todd Williams(3434)
z - John Halama(313124321)
Dan Miceli(3042443323)
J.C. Romero(3532233432)
Esteban Yan(21233345)
Brian Meadows(13333)

x
y - Justin Speier(4534334342)
Rafael Soriano(3543443432)
Jimmy Gobble(3124445343)
Vinnie Chulk(3334404433)
Jason Davis(5542323533)

Seeing the Jays demote Vinnie Chulk today somewhat saddens me given his generally respectable performance this year. While Rafael Soriano appears in no danger of a demotion, don't expect him to stay in the Mariners' closing competition for long due to J.J. Putz's vastly more impressive dominance.

y
z - Jason Frasor(235424332)
Cliff Politte(3411434432)
Neal Cotts(1423253524)
Manny Delcarmen(225)
Ron Flores(1)
Marco Carvajal

z
Rodrigo Lopez(14042)

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings

We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.

Internet Challenge

Few decisions this season turned out worse than our plan to bench Travis Hafner and Chad Tracy to keep Tex, Encarnacion, and our Rockies deployed, which cost us about five homers and perhaps 20 RBI. Yet, we still generally like our players, so although we may need to add another closer very soon, we at least will wait until Sunday before spending our third move.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sun:DET(M.Maroth)
Roy Oswalt: No start.
Pedro Martinez: No start.
Chris Carpenter: No start.
Randy Johnson: No start.
Jake Peavy: Sat:CHC(S.Marshall)
Roy Halladay: No start.
Mark Buehrle: Sun:KC(M.Redman)
Curt Schilling: Fri:BAL(Rod.Lopez).
Rich Harden: No start(DL)
Felix Hernandez: No start.
John Lackey: Sun:@TOR(C.Janssen)
Dan Haren: No start.

We'll happily take our five starts while leaving Haren deployed for the extra cap room. With Oakland heading for Tampa and smarting from two terrible games in Cleveland, Huston Street also returns to our lineup, replacing the increasingly wild Chris Ray, who faces Jon Papelbon over the weekend.

Todd Helton departs the DL tomorrow and therefore merits a lineup slot; Travis Hafner's trip to Seattle however keeps him benched in favor of Mark Teixeira, home against the Yankees. Helton replaces Encarnacion at DH. Uribe and Chad Tracy complete our reserves.

Rotohelp.com(4th lg; 51st overall)
Week 5b: May 5-May 7

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Mark Teixeira		1470
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210 
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
SS	Clint Barmes		780
OF	Jason Bay		1380
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040 
OF	Cory Sullivan		460 
OF	Joey Gathright		450
DH	Albert Pujols		2060 
DH	Todd Helton		1380

SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Jake Peavy		1240
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120
SP	Curt Schilling		1070 
SP	John Lackey		940
SP	Dan Haren		860 
RP	Huston Street		1300
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120
RP	Jon Papelbon		890

Total Week 5b Salary:		29990

Today's Fantasy Rx: While Bonderman started last year similarly strong, the extra year of experience nicely increases his odds of maintaining his early success. Don't move him now if you obtained him at any sort of reasonable price.

I also still believe Kelvim Escobar just might fulfill my sleeper prediction of a Cy Young candidacy, though obviously his current injury problems place a damper on those expectations. Just make sure you don't undervalue his upside when healthy.