Today's Fantasy Rx

Julio Mateo, RH Reliever, SEA: +3.13 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 4.62; 2004: 2.14; 2005: 2.51.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/25	36.2	34/3	23:7	0-0/0	2.27
May	1/26	48.1	52/11	31:13	1-1/0	5.40

06APR	0/7	10.1	14/2	6:7	1-0/0	7.84

Diminishing control and increasing homer problems render Mateo surprisingly useless in the majority of leagues. While he thankfully won't experience his normal May decline, his disastrous April severely limits his overall value and even might chase him from the majors. Deal or cut Mateo rather than risk any additional qualitative damage.

Brad Lidge, RH Closer, HOU: +2.15 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 1.23; 2004: 1.40; 2005: 3.80.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/32	38.1	22/2	51:16	3-0/6	1.41
May	0/44	48	41/4	69:20	2-5/7	3.56

06APR	0/10	10	9/2	15:5	0-0/7	3.60

Still a dominant closer, only an elevated walk rate suggests any lingering blasts from Albert Pujols' dynamic blast in the 2005 NLCS. Perhaps Lidge no longer qualifies as an automatic save machine, but nothing here suggests he won't push $30 once again. With popular perception of Lidge dropping despite little logical reason, now actually looks like a good time to acquire him before any extended string of success jacks up his value for the rest of the year.

Jeff Suppan, RH Starter, STL: +2.01 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 0.34; 2004: 4.26; 2005: 0.99.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	13/13	82.2	78/9	43:27	8-5/0	2.87
May	17/17	102.1	108/15	65:40	8-6/0	4.05

06APR	3/3	13	21/2	5:8	0-2/0	9.00

While I never expected to see Suppan dominate for any long stretch of starts, the complete collapse of his strikeout rate truly concerns me, especially given his horrendous 2.23 WHIP. Conversely, the Cardinals' schedule only provided him three starts to date, leaving plenty of time for a complete rebound. With St. Louis certainly committed to the veteran, anyone looking to add wins should seek to acquire Suppan sometime soon. Teams with good depth and deep benches may want to spot his starts carefully for another month, but he should cruise to a dozen wins by year's end

David Weathers, RH Closer, CIN: +1.96 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 4.11; 2004: 1.02; 2005: 0.52.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/36	42.1	41/3	34:19	3-1/0	3.83
May	0/40	37.1	49/7	30:15	4-4/1	5.79

06APR	0/8	7.2	4/2	8:5	0-1/4	3.52

Sometime soon Bronson Arroyo will stumble, the Reds will begin their inevitable collapse, and Jerry Narron will cede save opportunities to Todd Coffey, giving the youngster the chance to emerge as the club's long-term closer. Weathers looks strong right now due to Cincinnati's success, but he also appears right on track for a problematic May, especially with a trip to Colorado in the very near future. Slowly shop Stormy over the next week or two until you find an appropriate return for an established closer, preferably a trade that includes a slower starter like Mike Gonzalez or Trevor Hoffman.

Tim Wakefield, RH Starter, BOS: +1.86 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 0.52; 2004: 2.18; 2005: 3.52.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	13/15	85.2	71/9	62:35	7-2/1	3.19
May	16/17	103.1	112/8	66:44	6-7/0	5.05

06APR	4/4	26.2	25/2	15:7	1-3/0	3.71

The loss of Doug Mirabelli could create further problems with Wakefield due to Josh Bard's lack of comfort behind the plate. While the chance in catchers shouldn't affect Wakefield to any significant degree, he hasn't found the same success this spring as more dominant teammates like Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett. Wakefield also hasn't faced many top offenses, leaving him ripe for a qualitative spike in May. At least attempt to shop the veteran if you see the opportunity to upgrade to a younger pitcher with more upside.

Derek Lowe, RH Starter, LAD: +1.84 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 0.11; 2004: 3.20; 2005: 2.10.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	15/15	89.1	95/6	55:34	7-5/0	3.93
May	17/17	97.2	121/8	55:33	5-7/0	5.77

06APR	4/4	24	24/3	13:8	1-1/0	4.50

With no significant problems in his skill set, Lowe easily could cut his ERA in May, especially if the Dodgers' defense improves. He still walks few batters and nets plenty of groundballs, suggesting that we at least can expect a stable WHIP. Without fantastic current value or a strong likelihood of immediately deterioration, wait to see firmer skill trends emerge for Lowe before taking any action.

Freddy Garcia, RH Starter, CHW: +1.81 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 3.01; 2004: 1.55; 2005: 1.32.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	16/16	107	91/12	66:34	4-5/0	3.11
May	16/16	101.2	106/11	70:33	8-7/0	4.92

06APR	4/4	21.2	25/3	13:11	3-1/0	6.23

Garcia ranks near the top of any list of pitchers seemingly affected by participating in the WBC. His skills barely resemble his norms from recent years, and the loss of command presents a serious cause for concern. Yet he still benefits from Chicago's strong offense and defense. His value also appears at a qualitative nadir, so if we treat his April performance as his normal May slump and the WBC as Garcia's April, you just might want to target the veteran anywhere you want to add a horse wit upside.

Matt Herges, RH Reliever, FLO: +1.60 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 2.77; 2004: 0.54; 2005: 2.13.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/34	36	34/0	25:16	1-2/9	3.25
May	0/39	39	43/7	21:17	2-2/9	4.85

06APR	0/8	7.2	12/1	3:2	0-1/0	3.52

Perhaps Herges could see a couple of save opportunities, but Joe Borowski owns better skills and both veterans qualify as primary trade bait for a franchise desperate to add as many quality inexpensive players as possible. Herges also lacks the command necessary to rank as particularly viable roster filler. Try to deal him to any team desperate for saves before rising qualitative stats destroy the minimal value he provided your team over the last few weeks.

John Thomson, RH Starter, ATL: +1.57 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 0.49; 2004: 2.39; 2005: 1.69.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	15/15	92	105/9	67:21	6-5/0	3.52
May	15/15	94.2	99/11	59:21	4-5/0	5.09

06APR	2/4	14.2	10/0	14:3	0-0/0	1.23

Among the NL ERA leaders through three weeks, Thomson again looks like the quietly effective starter that pitched for the Braves prior to his injury-plagued 2005. He owns excellent control and little obvious downside, though due to his outstanding early April, he seems certain to suffer an ERA spike in May. Of course, due to his outstanding qualitative marks right now, shop Thomson to see if another owner places more value in this limited sample size than we do.

Ted Lilly, LH Starter, TOR: +1.51 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2003: 2.32; 2004: 0.59; 2005: 1.09.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	13/13	77	75/10	60:26	4-4/0	4.44
May	18/18	92.1	96/17	80:47	5-6/0	5.95

06APR	3/3	14.1	17/1	17:11	1-1/0	3.77

I like the upside suggested by this strikeout rate, however Lilly's struck out plenty of batters in the past despite contributing little qualitatively. He similarly seems set for a similar season in 2006, particularly if he doesn't cut his walk rate soon. ERA problems in May look like a foregone conclusion, so unless counting on his quantitative contribution in a 5x5 league, see if you can deal Lilly before the inevitable disastrous starts begin curtailing his value.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Yes, the Delmon Young bat throw video disturbed us, and yes, he deserves a decently long suspension if not criminal charges for the assault.

However, the brouhaha surrounding his culpability completely ignores the minor league replacement umpire that instigated the entire incident. The lack of cohesive rules regarding acceptable behavior when arguing with umps belongs on the docket in this year's CBA negotiations. We were stunned that the ump ejected Young while Young appeared several feet from home and walking away from the plate. If the ump didn't believe that Young's comments while standing at home plate merited ejection, waiting until the prospect was leaving the scene to toss him strikes us as an obscene abuse of power.

The International League employs umpires merely to regulate the action, not to create a situation that results in baseball's best prospect missing several weeks of action at a potential cost of thousands of ticket sales for Durham and the rest of the IL teams. Even if Minor League Baseball fails to come to terms with their striking umps any time soon, enacting a set of established rules covering acceptable language and length of argument time allowed under various circumstances from players, coaches, and managers should fix these situations. If officials truly believe that you can't contest any called strike, then any comment or glance from a batter deserves an immediate ejection. Tossing players that display any disrespect quickly could correct this problem and prevent situations like Young's from occurring in the future.

On a similar subject, how about instituting an automatic 25-game suspension for any player that leaves the bench or bullpen to participate in an altercation on the field, along with 50 games off for anyone who physically instigates a fight? If MLB wants to end brawls, then a combination of automatic suspensions and ordering the umpires and/or any available dugout policemen to physically intercede in any fights also could curtail those events significantly.