Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA drop by at least 1.50 from April to May. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in ERA from April to May while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Kyle Lohse, RH Starter, MIN: -2.78 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2003: 2.83; 2004: 1.16; 2005: 4.34.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	14/14	79.1	90/18	55:23	4-7/0	5.90
May	16/17	107.2	105/7	50:36	6-4/0	3.12

06APR	3/3	14	23/2	6:6	1-1/0	11.57

Lohse's command and hit rate through three starts suggest he deserves his medieval ERA. Never a dominant pitcher, Lohse appears particularly useless this year, with his difficulties only minimized compared to Carlos Silva's shockingly magnificent incompetence on the mound. Yet Lohse appears firmly entrenched in Minnesota's rotation, and given his usual spring struggles, he easily should cut his ERA in half over the next two months. He might remain worthless for fantasy teams, and the Twins also might move him to open a starting slot for Francisco Liriano, however the odds strongly favor immediate improvement, making Lohse a good target for anyone seeking a pitcher capable of contributing double-digit wins.

Kyle Farnsworth, RH Reliever, NYY: -2.56 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2003: 1.34; 2004: 3.15; 2005: 3.60.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/38	35.2	29/4	38:18	2-1/0	4.15
May	0/35	34	23/1	43:16	1-2/0	1.59

06APR	0/8	6	6/0	5:4	0-0/0	4.50

Seemingly stuck in a specialist's role until he gains the full confidence of Joe Torre, Farnsworth nevertheless appears on track for his normal improvement. His inconsistent command leaves him subject to defensive whims, but nothing here particularly concerns me given Farnsworth's past success despite occasional bouts of wildness. Particularly if you want to handcuff Mariano Rivera, try to acquire Farnsworth before he starts accumulating the quantitative stats we anticipated at the beginning of the year.

John Lackey, RH Starter, LAA: -2.33 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2003: 2.77; 2004: 1.45; 2005: 2.59.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	14/14	74.1	94/9	45:38	4-5/0	6.66
May	18/18	114.1	122/15	88:30	7-7/0	4.33

06APR	4/4	24	21/3	20:9	2-1/0	4.13

We fully expected Lackey to build on his fantastic second half in 2005, so even a drop to a sub-2.00 ERA for the month of May wouldn't shock us. He easily ranks among baseball's most dominant pitchers, so any improvement in his homer and walk rates will send hit ERA plummeting. If you missed the chance to draft him in the spring, now might be your last chance to acquire him before his improved qualitative stats and increasing number of victories drive his price skyward.

Brad Radke, RH Starter, MIN: -2.26 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2003: 2.44; 2004: 3.26; 2005: 1.21.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	16/16	97.2	124/19	57:12	5-8/0	5.59
May	16/16	105.1	124/12	61:8	7-3/0	3.33

06APR	4/4	24	34/8	11:3	2-2/0	7.50

Only the sheer insanity of Radke's 3.0 HR/9 prevents me from unilaterally recommending the deposed ace. Of course, he also continues to discuss retiring after this season, and given the Twins' general malaise this spring, additional struggles seems surprisingly possible. Fortunately Radke's impeccable control provides him seemingly less downside than most homer-happy hurlers, so at least wait until you see some signs of a rebound before making any offers for him.

Tom Gordon, RH Closer, PHI: -2.00 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2003: 2.44; 2004: 0.85; 2005: 2.88.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/33	36.2	28/3	33:16	1-5/1	3.79
May	0/40	40.1	25/2	44:18	2-4/0	1.79

06APR	0/8	7.2	4/0	13:3	1-1/5	1.17

Exceptional control reduces the downside of pitching in Philly for Gordon, who certainly owns the skills necessary to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA indefinitely. Of course, he appears far more likely to see his qualitative stats rise in May due to his outstanding April, yet Gordon still will stay very valuable due to the save opportunities provided by the Phillies. Only shop him if you see a way to obtain a safer closer while upgrading at a second position.

Brett Tomko, RH Starter, LAD: -1.73 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2003: 0.05; 2004: 4.60; 2005: 0.99.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	15/15	94.1	112/12	51:33	5-6/0	5.44
May	16/16	102	108/10	58:38	2-8/0	3.71

06APR	4/4	23	28/6	14:6	2-1/0	4.70

The perpetually underrated Tomko continues to earn a couple of bucks more than his usual draft price. This year he again owns an overly high ERA, and as the Dodgers' defense solidifies, both his hit and even his homer rate should drop. I see plenty to like in Tomko's historical skills and monthly trends, making him a good player to acquire for teams seeking a dependable fourth or fifth starter with a good chance to win ten more games this year.

Mike Timlin, RH Reliever, BOS: -1.69 ERA 
Yearly ERA decrease between April and May:
2003: 1.04; 2004: 3.22; 2005: 0.35.
03-05	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/32	40	39/2	28:8	5-2/1	3.83
May	0/38	42	30/5	34:10	2-2/0	2.14

06APR	0/9	8	11/1	4:4	2-0/0	2.25

Boston's most consistent reliever over the past few seasons, Timlin instead looks quite risky right now due to the general collapse of his control. He usually at least owns a good walk rate at this point, and his high hit rate also worries me. Combine those factors with his demotion into middle relief following the ascendance of Jon Papelbon to closer and Keith Foulke's return to set-up role, and Timlin barely merits a roster spot in many leagues. I see no reason not to deal Timlin if you can exchange him for any of the many relievers with more 2006 upside.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The appearance of both Lohse and Radke above helps justify our pre-season faith in the Twins' post-season hopes. Minnesota faces an extremely tough early schedule, and if their middle-of-the-order power ever heats up, I fully expect them to play October baseball. Both Lohse and Radke probably need to rebound for that to happen, and you'll want to own them when they start winning 2-1 games.