Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

Adam Dunn, OF, CIN: -.093 BA; -.330 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .060/.217; 2004: .137/.571; 2005: .092/.234.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	219	59:82	.288/.447/.685
May	272	57:104	.195/.342/.460

06APR	62	21:27	.258/.435/.661

While Dunn now enjoys the best supporting cast of his career thanks to the improvements from his younger teammates and the addition of Brandon Phillips, nothing here suggests he won't fall victim to his normal May struggles. He still doesn't hold an acceptable contact rate, so although he'll remain relatively valuable in sim leagues and most points contests, his roto value appears set to plummet for a couple of weeks. If you see any available deal for another slugger with better BA, swap Dunn before his qualitative failings drop him under $20 on the year.

Marcus Giles, 2B, ATL: -.103 BA; -.224 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .085/.243; 2004: .187/.388; 2005: .064/.124.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	234	24:46	.363/.423/.556
May	235	19:37	.260/.325/.430

06APR	57	15:14	.211/.375/.368

A sprained ligament in his left middle finger slowed Giles for the last week, mere days after he missed some time due to a sprained quad. He also left camp in early March to attend to a family illness and then lost a few days to shoulder inflammation. We still love his skills, but due to the number of at-bats these problems cost him over the past several weeks, Giles enters May with only slightly more than his normal complement of spring plate appearances. However, while he likely will continue struggling for another couple of weeks, his averages will rise to his established levels by year's end, making him a decent target if owned by someone already tired of dealing with the seemingly routine bumps and bruises encountered by Giles this season.

Luis Gonzalez, OF, ARI: -.068 BA; -.172 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .089/.269; 2004: .094/.231; 2005: .014/.011.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	279	38:34	.308/.389/.577
May	304	51:55	.240/.353/.441

06APR	71	8:7	.239/.325/.577

Yes, Gonzalez owns good plate discipline and certainly appears to possess solid power once again, but even if fully healthy, he still easily could succumb to his normal May problems. Considering his weak BA and overall limited upside, I wouldn't be comfortable continuing to own him in any league. Slowly start to shop him now in the hope of completing a deal for a younger player with better long-term prospects within the next couple of weeks.

J.T. Snow, 1B, BOS: -.078 BA; -.154 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .124/.268; 2004: .030/.093; 2005: .072/.082.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	205	25:39	.298/.388/.405
May	173	27:29	.220/.327/.312

06APR	16	5:1	.125/.333/.125

Losing his starting job courtesy of his departure from the Giants essentially invalidates this trend for Snow. He simply no longer sees the playing time necessary to warrant a roster spot in any standard league. At least his excellent plate discipline suggests he'll finish the year with a solid BA, but unless you play in an extremely deep league, feel free to deal or cut Snow at your first opportunity in favor of anyone with a better chance of accumulating quantitative stats.

Ivan Rodriguez, C, DET: -.082 BA; -.152 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .131/.303; 2004: .051/.009; 2005: .093/.198.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	261	26:40	.330/.388/.467
May	266	15:51	.248/.286/.417

06APR	67	4:5	.299/.338/.448

Even the rebound in Rodriguez's plate discipline can't convince me that he still qualifies as more than a borderline double-digit player. More importantly for Tigers' fans, he doesn't belong anywhere near the top of the lineup, stealing at-bats from Chris Shelton and Carlos Guillen, and I suspect eventually Jim Leyland will concur with that belief. IRod's value appears near its yearly peak right now, so unless all your fellow owners also consider him a quickly fading star, deal the future Hall of Famer for any of the half-dozen catchers capable of providing more immediate help.

Damian Miller, C, MIL: -.051 BA; -.144 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .091/.308; 2004: .007/.101; 2005: .054/.028.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	194	20:42	.289/.361/.454
May	185	21:48	.238/.325/.346

06APR	47	6:4	.298/.382/.532

The 36-year-old backstop certainly should earn a few bucks of positive value, but we didn't expect him to maintain his current double-digit contribution even before his name popped up here. Miller's a perfectly solid second catcher, and you probably just should keep him if he only cost you a couple of bucks. Yet if you need $10+ from your first catcher slot, shop Miller now before the inevitable erosion in his trade value.

Manny Ramirez, OF, BOS: -.063 BA; -.132 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .082/.156; 2004: .071/.003; 2005: .040/.268.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	267	37:43	.337/.421/.599
May	296	49:63	.274/.381/.507

06APR	66	15:20	.273/.407/.379

We've considered Ramirez among the most overrated fantasy players for the past season or two due to the increasing exposure in his BA courtesy of his slipping contact rate. The problems atop Boston's order similarly create a paucity of RBI opportunities, and now he isn't even smacking sufficient homers. I don't anticipate a dramatic rebound from Manny, who could finish the season with as few as 30 HR and 100 RBI. Only wait until he hits his first hot streak before testing the trade waters to see what he might bring in return.

Mike Matheny, C, SF: -.053 BA; -.104 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2003: .078/.130; 2004: .055/.143; 2005: .018/.038.

03-05	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	236	13:46	.288/.327/.432
May	217	19:42	.235/.305/.350

06APR	55	5:11	.200/.274/.291

Generally Matheny enjoys two solid months each April and September. Unfortunately, after bombing both last September and this April, I no longer see much use for Matheny on any fantasy roster at any point. Deal or cut him unless possessing a superb team BA yet utterly desperate for any quantitative help.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although exploiting fast-starting hitters on the trade market remains a time-honored method for fantasy success, don't be afraid to keep capable performers who possess the skill set that supports a breakout. While swapping high-average players with weak plate discipline for low-average players with excellent plate discipline will keep your BA very high, the HR/RBI leaders now will look relatively similar to the end-of-year charts. Think twice before moving Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes, Craig Wilson, Edwin Encarnacion, and even Ty Wigginton.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.


Rotohelp Our Philosophy		2006 Hitting: Wilting Mayflowers by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx Adam Dunn, OF, CIN: -.093 BA; -.330 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .060/.217; 2004: .137/.571; 2005: .092/.234. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 219 59:82 .288/.447/.685 May 272 57:104 .195/.342/.460 06APR 62 21:27 .258/.435/.661 While Dunn now enjoys the best supporting cast of his career thanks to the improvements from his younger teammates and the addition of Brandon Phillips, nothing here suggests he won't fall victim to his normal May struggles. He still doesn't hold an acceptable contact rate, so although he'll remain relatively valuable in sim leagues and most points contests, his roto value appears set to plummet for a couple of weeks. If you see any available deal for another slugger with better BA, swap Dunn before his qualitative failings drop him under $20 on the year. Marcus Giles, 2B, ATL: -.103 BA; -.224 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .085/.243; 2004: .187/.388; 2005: .064/.124. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 234 24:46 .363/.423/.556 May 235 19:37 .260/.325/.430 06APR 57 15:14 .211/.375/.368 A sprained ligament in his left middle finger slowed Giles for the last week, mere days after he missed some time due to a sprained quad. He also left camp in early March to attend to a family illness and then lost a few days to shoulder inflammation. We still love his skills, but due to the number of at-bats these problems cost him over the past several weeks, Giles enters May with only slightly more than his normal complement of spring plate appearances. However, while he likely will continue struggling for another couple of weeks, his averages will rise to his established levels by year's end, making him a decent target if owned by someone already tired of dealing with the seemingly routine bumps and bruises encountered by Giles this season. Luis Gonzalez, OF, ARI: -.068 BA; -.172 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .089/.269; 2004: .094/.231; 2005: .014/.011. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 279 38:34 .308/.389/.577 May 304 51:55 .240/.353/.441 06APR 71 8:7 .239/.325/.577 Yes, Gonzalez owns good plate discipline and certainly appears to possess solid power once again, but even if fully healthy, he still easily could succumb to his normal May problems. Considering his weak BA and overall limited upside, I wouldn't be comfortable continuing to own him in any league. Slowly start to shop him now in the hope of completing a deal for a younger player with better long-term prospects within the next couple of weeks. J.T. Snow, 1B, BOS: -.078 BA; -.154 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .124/.268; 2004: .030/.093; 2005: .072/.082. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 205 25:39 .298/.388/.405 May 173 27:29 .220/.327/.312 06APR 16 5:1 .125/.333/.125 Losing his starting job courtesy of his departure from the Giants essentially invalidates this trend for Snow. He simply no longer sees the playing time necessary to warrant a roster spot in any standard league. At least his excellent plate discipline suggests he'll finish the year with a solid BA, but unless you play in an extremely deep league, feel free to deal or cut Snow at your first opportunity in favor of anyone with a better chance of accumulating quantitative stats. Ivan Rodriguez, C, DET: -.082 BA; -.152 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .131/.303; 2004: .051/.009; 2005: .093/.198. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 261 26:40 .330/.388/.467 May 266 15:51 .248/.286/.417 06APR 67 4:5 .299/.338/.448 Even the rebound in Rodriguez's plate discipline can't convince me that he still qualifies as more than a borderline double-digit player. More importantly for Tigers' fans, he doesn't belong anywhere near the top of the lineup, stealing at-bats from Chris Shelton and Carlos Guillen, and I suspect eventually Jim Leyland will concur with that belief. IRod's value appears near its yearly peak right now, so unless all your fellow owners also consider him a quickly fading star, deal the future Hall of Famer for any of the half-dozen catchers capable of providing more immediate help. Damian Miller, C, MIL: -.051 BA; -.144 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .091/.308; 2004: .007/.101; 2005: .054/.028. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 194 20:42 .289/.361/.454 May 185 21:48 .238/.325/.346 06APR 47 6:4 .298/.382/.532 The 36-year-old backstop certainly should earn a few bucks of positive value, but we didn't expect him to maintain his current double-digit contribution even before his name popped up here. Miller's a perfectly solid second catcher, and you probably just should keep him if he only cost you a couple of bucks. Yet if you need $10+ from your first catcher slot, shop Miller now before the inevitable erosion in his trade value. Manny Ramirez, OF, BOS: -.063 BA; -.132 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .082/.156; 2004: .071/.003; 2005: .040/.268. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 267 37:43 .337/.421/.599 May 296 49:63 .274/.381/.507 06APR 66 15:20 .273/.407/.379 We've considered Ramirez among the most overrated fantasy players for the past season or two due to the increasing exposure in his BA courtesy of his slipping contact rate. The problems atop Boston's order similarly create a paucity of RBI opportunities, and now he isn't even smacking sufficient homers. I don't anticipate a dramatic rebound from Manny, who could finish the season with as few as 30 HR and 100 RBI. Only wait until he hits his first hot streak before testing the trade waters to see what he might bring in return. Mike Matheny, C, SF: -.053 BA; -.104 OPS Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May: 2003: .078/.130; 2004: .055/.143; 2005: .018/.038. 03-05 AB BB:K BA/OBP/SLG April 236 13:46 .288/.327/.432 May 217 19:42 .235/.305/.350 06APR 55 5:11 .200/.274/.291 Generally Matheny enjoys two solid months each April and September. Unfortunately, after bombing both last September and this April, I no longer see much use for Matheny on any fantasy roster at any point. Deal or cut him unless possessing a superb team BA yet utterly desperate for any quantitative help. Today's Fantasy Rx: Although exploiting fast-starting hitters on the trade market remains a time-honored method for fantasy success, don't be afraid to keep capable performers who possess the skill set that supports a breakout. While swapping high-average players with weak plate discipline for low-average players with excellent plate discipline will keep your BA very high, the HR/RBI leaders now will look relatively similar to the end-of-year charts. Think twice before moving Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes, Craig Wilson, Edwin Encarnacion, and even Ty Wigginton. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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