Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing relievers last week, I'll look at the most dominant starters in 2006 this weekend. Once again, please remember that the fairly limited sample size of statistics generated over the last three weeks renders the following comments far more useful as general suggestions rather than strong recommendations.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Chris Capuano, MIL(5454): 2-2 on a 28:8 K:BB in 26 IP over 4 GS with 19 H, 4 HR, a .82 G-F, and a 3.46 ERA. The true prize of the Sexson deal despite the haul obtained for Overbay, Capuano now ranks as Milwaukee's #2 starter, possessing the chance to emerge as a second ace alongside Ben Sheets as the Brew Crew careens towards contention. A low ground-fly rate results in excess homers, which elevates Capuano's ERA above what we'd expect given just his WHIP, but his other skills all rank with the league's best pitchers. He easily could be 4-0 with a sub-3.00 ERA, making now your best chance to acquire the budding star before his dominance shoots his cost upward.

Brad Penny, LAD(5444): 2-0 on a 25:2 K:BB in 24 IP over 4 GS with 20 H, 2 HR, a 1.00 G-F, and a 1.88 ERA. Only repeated health problems prevented Penny from developing into a true ace in past seasons, but with a skill set of virtually ideal marks, a promising support squad beginning to receive an influx of top prospect, and the wonderfully forgiving Dodger Stadium, 2006 looks like Penny's breakout campaign. Impeccable control translates into an outstanding WHIP, and in combination with his ERA, he easily should clear double-digit value based on his qualitative contribution alone. Of course, the downside to these superlative early numbers is his increasing perceived value, so while you might explore trade options now just to see if you can purloin a safer option, generally wait to see if he can avoid the seemingly inevitable regression of his walk rate.

Tom Glavine, NYM(4444): 2-1 on a 26:6 K:BB in 26 IP over 4 GS with 21 H, 1 HR, a .94 G-F, and a 1.39 ERA. Given Glavine's history of struggling as the weather warms, you shouldn't hold him much longer if you wisely drafted him this spring. The return of Kaz Matsui heralds a decline in the Mets' defense, which inevitably will lead to both a rise in their pitchers' hit and then walk rates as the hurlers attempt to compensate. I also anticipate general erosion of Glavine's qualitative stats since he'll be lucky to finish the season with an ERA much below 4.00. Try to shop Glavine now so you can find the best return by month's end.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Chris Carpenter, STL(3545): 1-1 on a 25:6 K:BB in 27 IP over 4 GS with 19 H, 2 HR, a 2.55 G-F, and a 1.67 ERA. The reigning NL Cy Young winner didn't miss a beat this spring, again demonstrating the all-around skill level we want to see from a true ace. Yes, I remain concerned regarding another late-season fade, and I've seen no reason to believe he won't succumb to further injury. However, Carpenter otherwise belongs in any conversation regarding the league's best pitchers, easily worth a $20 valuation in standard leagues and only allowing you to shop him in exchange for a significant package of fantasy assets.

3 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Greg Maddux, CHC(455): 3-0 on a 14:4 K:BB in 20.1 IP over 3 GS with 10 H, 1 HR, a 1.39 G-F, and a 1.33 ERA. Reported discussions of a contract extension this spring apparently proved fruitless, providing Mad Dog with the incentive to assert his credentials as the historically best pitcher still active in baseball. He no longer dominates hitters to any extent yet possesses the overall repertoire necessary to maintain strong qualitative stats indefinitely. If the Cubs again manage to lose one of the true franchise icons, especially with brother Mike waiting up I-94 as Milwaukee's pitching coach, Jim Hendry and company will deserve the endless pillorying accompanying such a fundamental betrayal of fan trust. Looking strictly at this season, despite the potential still suggested by these skills, feel free to deal Maddux if you see a die hard Cub fan in your league looking to rid this run despite the reasonable chance Maddux will post an ERA near 4.00 over the balance of the season.

Jason Marquis, STL(444): 3-0 on a 12:4 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 3 GS with 15 H, 1 HR, a 1.78 G-F, and a 2.79 ERA. The Cardinals' least-heralded starter spent he winter ensconced in trade rumors, only remaining in St. Louis when the club attempted to address their offensive needs with lesser deals for Juan Encarnacion, Aaron Miles, and Larry Bigbie. Instead Marquis received one more chance to prove his doubters wrong and secure a long-term deal with the Cardinals, who already face the prospect of losing Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson to free agency this fall. Marquis seems an easy sign in comparison to his veteran brethren, especially given the miniscule likelihood that he'll maintain his current numbers. Shop the traditionally mediocre inning eater to any teams desperate for a pitcher perfectly capable of winning three games a month.

Aaron Cook, COL(444): 1-2 on a 7:4 K:BB in 21 IP over 3 GS with 18 H, 1 HR, a 4.50 G-F, and a 3.43 ERA. On any team Cook would rank as one of the greatest sleepers in the game, but nothing here allowed me to recommend this Colorado starter. Yes, his fantastic groundball rate severely minimizes his downside in Coors, but despite a similarly strong walk rate, Cook's lack of strikeouts leave him severely vulnerable to big innings. While he hasn't posted an ERA above 4.28 in the past three years and just might contribute several dollars of positive value, owners employing even basic risk management techniques need to deal or cut Cook unless ignoring his qualitative stats completely.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I generally see little reason why most of these fast starters can't maintain their current value over the next few weeks. Although regression to the mean will inevitably affect the vast majority of players, a couple of these guys should finish the year among the league's best starters. Exercise at least a modicum of caution when looking to take advantage of the trade market for the pitchers discussed over the past two days.