Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

Arizona: Miguel Batista, RH Starter
1-0 on a 22:7 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS
with 24 H, 2 HR, a 2.18 G-F, and a 5.09 ERA.

With a surprisingly high strikeout rate, good control, and his normally solid groundball rate, Batista's ERA should drop by no less than a full run over the next several weeks. Yes, he still suffers from pitching at Chase, however most owners should wait and ride Batista for the next three months, only moving him at the trade deadline prior to his normal end-of-year struggles.

Atlanta: Tim Hudson, RH Starter
1-1 on a 12:9 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 4 GS
with 26 H, 1 HR, a 2.64 G-F, and a 6.09 ERA.

Hudson's strikeout rate continues to deteriorate, but with his walk rate certain to improve and a groundball rate that meshes nicely with the Braves' solid infield defense, expect an ERA drop of over two runs by the end of May. If you know that your fellow owners no longer consider him a borderline ace, take advantage of that overly pessimistic assessment to acquire this top-of-the-rotation arm.

Chicago Cubs: Sean Marshall, LH Starter
1-0 on an 8:5 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 3 GS
with 11 H, 3 HR, a 1.45 G-F, and a 6.28 ERA.

One of the least likely pitchers to open the year in a big league rotation when camp opened, Marshall ranks the Cubs' fourth starter despite only ten appearances above A-ball prior to this season. Injury problems limited him to a total of forty-four appearances in his three-year professional career, so his struggles shouldn't surprise anyone. However, his 258:70 K:BB in 252 career innings suggests his command will improve, a shift that also should cut his homer rate. I still believe he belongs in the minors, yet if the Cubs continue starting him, Marshall should emerge as a marginally reliable fantasy starter to target this summer.

Cincinnati: Aaron Harang, RH Starter
2-1 on a 22:5 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 4 GS
with 30 H, 5 HR, a 1.63 G-F, and a 6.35 ERA.

High hit and homer rates barely overshadow Harang's fantastic strikeout and walk rates. With Bronson Arroyo's sudden emergence as the Reds' ace helping deflect pressure from Harang, Cincinnati's most reliable starter appears set for an extended run of excellence. Only continued bad luck should keep Harang from clearing double-digit value, making him an obvious players to acquire at this point in the year.

Colorado: Jeff Francis, LH Starter
0-2 on a 16:11 K:BB in 16 IP over 3 GS
with 16 H, 4 HR, a .95 G-F, and a 6.75 ERA.

While no Rockies' starter merits my fantasy approval, I still see plenty of upside for this former minor league stud. A solid strikeout rate and an annually impressive walk rate both suggest a pending ERA drop, so although you still shouldn't run Francis in most leagues, at least wait if you already own him.

Florida: Jason Vargas, LH Starter
1-1 on a 9:13 K:BB in 15 IP over 3 GS
with 17 H, 4 HR, a .35 G-F, and a 7.20 ERA.

Only pitching in Dolphins' Stadium provided Vargas with much value last year, and now we're seeing the downside of jumping a pitcher to the majors with only three games in the upper minors. A 7.8 walk rate and .35 G-F both suggest he needs more seasoning, most likely back at AA Carolina since his skill set could cause additional confidence problems at AAA Albuquerque. Unless you're spending the entire year rebuilding, deal or cut Vargas now before you sustain further qualitative damage.

Houston: Andy Pettitte, LH Starter
1-3 on an 18:7 K:BB in 24 IP over 4 GS
with 35 H, 5 HR, a 2.38 G-F, and a 5.25 ERA.

Bad luck accounts for most of these problems as Pettitte's command indicates a miniscule likelihood of long-term struggles. He may not reemerge as one of baseball's best pitchers until Roger Clemens returns to Houston by mid-season as expected, but most owners should take advantage of the natural tendency to undervalue any pitcher with an ERA over 5.00. Target Pettitte now if seeking to improve your top quartet of starters.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Jae Seo, RH Starter
0-1 on an 11:2 K:BB in 14 IP over 2 GS(3G)
with 16 H, 4 HR, a .82 G-F, and a 6.43 ERA.

I simply don't expect the longball to trouble Seo all year, especially when his excellent control will keep his WHIP at a helpful level. The new Dodgers' regime certainly will give him every opportunity to succeed, making him a solid buy-low candidate. Look to acquire Seo, especially if he unexpectedly wound up on your waiver wire courtesy of an insanely impatient owner.

Milwaukee: David Bush, RH Starter
1-1 on a 14:4 K:BB in 19 IP over 3 GS
with 18 H, 2 HR, a 2.07 G-F, and a 5.21 ERA.

Simply shifting parks from Toronto to Milwaukee will improve Bush's ERA. With an excellent ground-fly rate similarly set to cut his elevated homer rate from last year, I see a significant likelihood of immediate improvement for the youngster. Try to acquire him now before his inevitable improvement raises Bush's value alongside other potential $15 starters with $25 long-term upside.

New York Mets: Jorge Julio, RH Reliever
0-1 on an 11:2 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 7 G
with 12 H, 3 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 10.80 ERA.

Neither Julio's hit nor homer rate provide much reason for his currently disastrous qualitative stats outside of his obvious bad luck in this small sample size. Placing anyone with his command in front of the Mets' defense at Shea Stadium will lead to success over the long run, yet sliding to the back of the bullpen certainly limits his immediate fantasy potential. Wait until you see him post two decent weeks of stats before considering him anywhere you need roster filler.

Philadelphia: Jon Lieber, RH Starter
0-3 on an 8:2 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 3 GS
with 27 H, 2 HR, 2.00 G-F, and a 9.18 ERA.

Extraordinarily bad timing accounts for much of this disaster as Lieber opened at home against the Cardinals and Dodgers before heading to Planet Coors. His walk and groundball rates still give him less upside than any Phillies' starter, so while you might see an elevated ERA for much of the year, he'll also produce double-digit wins and a few bucks of WHIP help. Target him anywhere you want a relatively low-risk, low-upside option to boost your IP total.

Pittsburgh: Paul Maholm, LH Starter
0-2 on a 9:9 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS
with 21 H, 3 HR, a 1.78 G-F, and a 6.11 ERA.

Everything here scares me, especially after Maholm's unimpressive 26:17 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 6 GS last September. Fortunately, his minor league numbers suggest only a hidden injury will keep him from consistently improving after his poor opening outings. The Pirates' overall problems no longer leave Maholm with a good chance to approach double-digit value, but feel free to target him with the expectation of no worse than a 4.50 ERA over the balance of the year.

San Diego: Jake Peavy, RH Starter
1-2 on a 20:4 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS
with 23 H, 4 HR, a .56 G-F, and a 4.32 ERA.

Perhaps the league's premier pitcher heading into the season, Peavy appears relatively healthy and therefore thoroughly likely to drop his ERA below 3.00 within the near future. I don't envision him maintaining a ground-fly rate much below 1.00, and with his combination of dominance and command, consider this merely a mild blip on his way to $20. Acquire him now or plan to watch him contend for the Cy Young on someone else's team all year.

San Francisco: Matt Cain, RH Starter
0-2 on a 14:8 K:BB in 16 IP over 3 GS
with 18 H, 3 HR, a .68 G-F, and a 6.75 ERA.

Although these skills track closely with the marks he displayed last fall, Cain's ERA appears far higher than expected due to general bad luck. Yes, his control issues sharply reduce his margin for error, especially when combined with his strong flyball tendency, but his overall dominance should drop his ERA to as low as half its current value by year's end. Particularly in single-season leagues where his owner isn't concerned about keeper value, Cain looks like a good target for owners looking to add a solid #4 starter cheaply.

St. Louis: Jason Isringhausen, RH Closer
0-2 and 4 Saves on a 4:6 K:BB in 5 IP over 7 G
with 7 H, 2 HR, a 10-2 G-F, and a 9.00 ERA.

Saving four games in less than three weeks at least places Izzy on pace for about forty saves for the year. Yet thanks to a stunningly awful outing in Chicago that culminated in a Michael Barrett grand slam, his qualitative stats nearly negate his other contributions and completely overturn any positive value in sim leagues. Of course, only his walk rate currently diverges from his established norms by any significant amount, so you still should jump at any opportunity to acquire Isringhausen for a less proven closer like Tim Worrell or even Mike Gonzalez.

Washington: Livan Hernandez, RH Starter
1-2 on an 18:4 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 4 GS
with 39 H, 9 HR, a 1.03 G-F, and a 7.11 ERA.

We can attribute part of his problems to an April schedule that featured two outings against the red hot Mets, as well as starts in Houston and Philly. However, with a relatively porous defense, inconsistent run support, and troublesome bullpen support, the Nationals can't insure a significant rebound for Hernandez. Since we also know that eventually his ridiculously heavy workload will cause some deterioration, likely in combination with his injured knee, only gambling owners should target Hernandez at this time.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although most of these pitchers provide you an opportunity to grab a solid talent under market price, only Harang, Bush, and Peavy appear completely incapable of continue struggles. Getting one of these young right-handers offers the best combination of high upside with very little risk.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.


Rotohelp Our Philosophy		2006 Pitching: April NL Underachievers by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx Arizona: Miguel Batista, RH Starter 1-0 on a 22:7 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS with 24 H, 2 HR, a 2.18 G-F, and a 5.09 ERA. With a surprisingly high strikeout rate, good control, and his normally solid groundball rate, Batista's ERA should drop by no less than a full run over the next several weeks. Yes, he still suffers from pitching at Chase, however most owners should wait and ride Batista for the next three months, only moving him at the trade deadline prior to his normal end-of-year struggles. Atlanta: Tim Hudson, RH Starter 1-1 on a 12:9 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 4 GS with 26 H, 1 HR, a 2.64 G-F, and a 6.09 ERA. Hudson's strikeout rate continues to deteriorate, but with his walk rate certain to improve and a groundball rate that meshes nicely with the Braves' solid infield defense, expect an ERA drop of over two runs by the end of May. If you know that your fellow owners no longer consider him a borderline ace, take advantage of that overly pessimistic assessment to acquire this top-of-the-rotation arm. Chicago Cubs: Sean Marshall, LH Starter 1-0 on an 8:5 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 3 GS with 11 H, 3 HR, a 1.45 G-F, and a 6.28 ERA. One of the least likely pitchers to open the year in a big league rotation when camp opened, Marshall ranks the Cubs' fourth starter despite only ten appearances above A-ball prior to this season. Injury problems limited him to a total of forty-four appearances in his three-year professional career, so his struggles shouldn't surprise anyone. However, his 258:70 K:BB in 252 career innings suggests his command will improve, a shift that also should cut his homer rate. I still believe he belongs in the minors, yet if the Cubs continue starting him, Marshall should emerge as a marginally reliable fantasy starter to target this summer. Cincinnati: Aaron Harang, RH Starter 2-1 on a 22:5 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 4 GS with 30 H, 5 HR, a 1.63 G-F, and a 6.35 ERA. High hit and homer rates barely overshadow Harang's fantastic strikeout and walk rates. With Bronson Arroyo's sudden emergence as the Reds' ace helping deflect pressure from Harang, Cincinnati's most reliable starter appears set for an extended run of excellence. Only continued bad luck should keep Harang from clearing double-digit value, making him an obvious players to acquire at this point in the year. Colorado: Jeff Francis, LH Starter 0-2 on a 16:11 K:BB in 16 IP over 3 GS with 16 H, 4 HR, a .95 G-F, and a 6.75 ERA. While no Rockies' starter merits my fantasy approval, I still see plenty of upside for this former minor league stud. A solid strikeout rate and an annually impressive walk rate both suggest a pending ERA drop, so although you still shouldn't run Francis in most leagues, at least wait if you already own him. Florida: Jason Vargas, LH Starter 1-1 on a 9:13 K:BB in 15 IP over 3 GS with 17 H, 4 HR, a .35 G-F, and a 7.20 ERA. Only pitching in Dolphins' Stadium provided Vargas with much value last year, and now we're seeing the downside of jumping a pitcher to the majors with only three games in the upper minors. A 7.8 walk rate and .35 G-F both suggest he needs more seasoning, most likely back at AA Carolina since his skill set could cause additional confidence problems at AAA Albuquerque. Unless you're spending the entire year rebuilding, deal or cut Vargas now before you sustain further qualitative damage. Houston: Andy Pettitte, LH Starter 1-3 on an 18:7 K:BB in 24 IP over 4 GS with 35 H, 5 HR, a 2.38 G-F, and a 5.25 ERA. Bad luck accounts for most of these problems as Pettitte's command indicates a miniscule likelihood of long-term struggles. He may not reemerge as one of baseball's best pitchers until Roger Clemens returns to Houston by mid-season as expected, but most owners should take advantage of the natural tendency to undervalue any pitcher with an ERA over 5.00. Target Pettitte now if seeking to improve your top quartet of starters. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jae Seo, RH Starter 0-1 on an 11:2 K:BB in 14 IP over 2 GS(3G) with 16 H, 4 HR, a .82 G-F, and a 6.43 ERA. I simply don't expect the longball to trouble Seo all year, especially when his excellent control will keep his WHIP at a helpful level. The new Dodgers' regime certainly will give him every opportunity to succeed, making him a solid buy-low candidate. Look to acquire Seo, especially if he unexpectedly wound up on your waiver wire courtesy of an insanely impatient owner. Milwaukee: David Bush, RH Starter 1-1 on a 14:4 K:BB in 19 IP over 3 GS with 18 H, 2 HR, a 2.07 G-F, and a 5.21 ERA. Simply shifting parks from Toronto to Milwaukee will improve Bush's ERA. With an excellent ground-fly rate similarly set to cut his elevated homer rate from last year, I see a significant likelihood of immediate improvement for the youngster. Try to acquire him now before his inevitable improvement raises Bush's value alongside other potential $15 starters with $25 long-term upside. New York Mets: Jorge Julio, RH Reliever 0-1 on an 11:2 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 7 G with 12 H, 3 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 10.80 ERA. Neither Julio's hit nor homer rate provide much reason for his currently disastrous qualitative stats outside of his obvious bad luck in this small sample size. Placing anyone with his command in front of the Mets' defense at Shea Stadium will lead to success over the long run, yet sliding to the back of the bullpen certainly limits his immediate fantasy potential. Wait until you see him post two decent weeks of stats before considering him anywhere you need roster filler. Philadelphia: Jon Lieber, RH Starter 0-3 on an 8:2 K:BB in 16.2 IP over 3 GS with 27 H, 2 HR, 2.00 G-F, and a 9.18 ERA. Extraordinarily bad timing accounts for much of this disaster as Lieber opened at home against the Cardinals and Dodgers before heading to Planet Coors. His walk and groundball rates still give him less upside than any Phillies' starter, so while you might see an elevated ERA for much of the year, he'll also produce double-digit wins and a few bucks of WHIP help. Target him anywhere you want a relatively low-risk, low-upside option to boost your IP total. Pittsburgh: Paul Maholm, LH Starter 0-2 on a 9:9 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS with 21 H, 3 HR, a 1.78 G-F, and a 6.11 ERA. Everything here scares me, especially after Maholm's unimpressive 26:17 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 6 GS last September. Fortunately, his minor league numbers suggest only a hidden injury will keep him from consistently improving after his poor opening outings. The Pirates' overall problems no longer leave Maholm with a good chance to approach double-digit value, but feel free to target him with the expectation of no worse than a 4.50 ERA over the balance of the year. San Diego: Jake Peavy, RH Starter 1-2 on a 20:4 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 4 HR, a .56 G-F, and a 4.32 ERA. Perhaps the league's premier pitcher heading into the season, Peavy appears relatively healthy and therefore thoroughly likely to drop his ERA below 3.00 within the near future. I don't envision him maintaining a ground-fly rate much below 1.00, and with his combination of dominance and command, consider this merely a mild blip on his way to $20. Acquire him now or plan to watch him contend for the Cy Young on someone else's team all year. San Francisco: Matt Cain, RH Starter 0-2 on a 14:8 K:BB in 16 IP over 3 GS with 18 H, 3 HR, a .68 G-F, and a 6.75 ERA. Although these skills track closely with the marks he displayed last fall, Cain's ERA appears far higher than expected due to general bad luck. Yes, his control issues sharply reduce his margin for error, especially when combined with his strong flyball tendency, but his overall dominance should drop his ERA to as low as half its current value by year's end. Particularly in single-season leagues where his owner isn't concerned about keeper value, Cain looks like a good target for owners looking to add a solid #4 starter cheaply. St. Louis: Jason Isringhausen, RH Closer 0-2 and 4 Saves on a 4:6 K:BB in 5 IP over 7 G with 7 H, 2 HR, a 10-2 G-F, and a 9.00 ERA. Saving four games in less than three weeks at least places Izzy on pace for about forty saves for the year. Yet thanks to a stunningly awful outing in Chicago that culminated in a Michael Barrett grand slam, his qualitative stats nearly negate his other contributions and completely overturn any positive value in sim leagues. Of course, only his walk rate currently diverges from his established norms by any significant amount, so you still should jump at any opportunity to acquire Isringhausen for a less proven closer like Tim Worrell or even Mike Gonzalez. Washington: Livan Hernandez, RH Starter 1-2 on an 18:4 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 4 GS with 39 H, 9 HR, a 1.03 G-F, and a 7.11 ERA. We can attribute part of his problems to an April schedule that featured two outings against the red hot Mets, as well as starts in Houston and Philly. However, with a relatively porous defense, inconsistent run support, and troublesome bullpen support, the Nationals can't insure a significant rebound for Hernandez. Since we also know that eventually his ridiculously heavy workload will cause some deterioration, likely in combination with his injured knee, only gambling owners should target Hernandez at this time. Today's Fantasy Rx: Although most of these pitchers provide you an opportunity to grab a solid talent under market price, only Harang, Bush, and Peavy appear completely incapable of continue struggles. Getting one of these young right-handers offers the best combination of high upside with very little risk. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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