Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

Schedule recommendations for teams with 7 games

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Pittsburgh: 3 Road at MIN; 4 Road at CIN.
Texas: 3 Home vs. BOS; 4 Home vs. DET.

Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Atlanta: 3 Road at LAD; 4 Road at SF.
Oakland: 3 Home vs. NYY; 4 Road at SEA.
San Francisco: 3 Road at SD; 4 Home vs. ATL.
Seattle: 3 Home vs. LAA: 4 Home vs. OAK.

Schedule recommendations for teams with 6 games

Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Baltimore: 3 Home vs. TB; 3 Home vs. BOS.
Chicago White Sox: 3 Home vs. CLE: 3 Road at KC.
Houston: 3 Home vs. FLO; 3 Home vs. WAS.
Milwaukee: 3 Home vs. PIT; 3 Home vs. ARI.
New York Mets: 3 Home vs. WAS; 3 Home vs. FLO.

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Arizona: 3 Road at COL; 3 Road at MIL.
Boston: 3 Road at TEX; 3 Road at BAL.
Cincinnati: 2 Home vs. CHC; 4 Home vs. PIT.
Colorado: 3 Home vs. ARI; 3 Road at SD.
Detroit: 2 Road at KC; 4 Road at TEX.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 Home vs. ATL; 3 Road at PHI.
Minnesota: 3 Road at TOR; 3 Road at CLE.
Philadelphia: 3 Home vs. STL; 3 Home vs. LAD.
St. Louis: 3 Road at PHI; 3 Road at CHC.
Toronto: 3 Home vs. MIN; 3 Home vs. TB.

Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Los Angeles Angels: 3 Road at SEA; 3 Home vs. NYY.
San Diego: 3 Home vs. SF; 3 Home vs. COL.

Bad for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Cleveland: 3 Road at CHW; 3 Home vs. MIN.
Florida: 3 Road at HOU; 3 Road at NYM.
New York Yankees: 3 Road at OAK; 3 Road at LAA.
Tampa Bay: 3 Road at BAL; 3 Road at TOR.

Schedule recommendations for teams with 5 games

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Chicago Cubs: 2 Road at CHC; 3 Home vs. STL.
Kansas City: 2 Home vs. DET; 3 Home vs. CHW.

Pitchers with 2 starts(to deploy everywhere you own them):
Mark Buehrle: Sun:CLE(C.Sabathia); Sun:@KC(S.Elarton)
Chris Capuano: Tue:PIT(Z.Duke); Sun:ARI(B.Webb)
Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber); Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano)
Bartolo Colon: Mon:@SEA(J.Moyer); Sun:NYY(R.Johnson)
Doug Davis: Mon:PIT(Ol.Perez); Sat:ARI(C.Vargas)
Shawn Estes: Tue:SF(M.Morris); Sun:COL(J.Jennings)
Tom Glavine: Mon:WAS(L.Hernandez); Sat:FLO(D.Willis)
Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana); Sun:TB(S.Kazmir)
Aaron Harang: Mon:CHC(C.Zambrano); Sun:PIT(Ol.Perez)
Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina); Sun:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Livan Hernandez: Mon:@NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:@HOU(A.Pettitte)
Tim Hudson: Mon:@LAD(D.Lowe); Sat:@SF(J.Schmidt)
Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito); Sun:@LAA(B.Colon)
Scott Kazmir: Mon:@BAL(Rod.Lopez); Sat:@TOR(S.Downs?)
Jon Lieber: Mon:STL(C.Carpenter); Sun:LAD(D.Lowe)
Rod Lopez: Mon:TB(S.Kazmir); Sun:BOS(T.Wakefield)
Derek Lowe: Mon:ATL(T.Hudson); Sun:@PHI(J.Lieber)
Matt Morris: Tue:@SD(S.Estes); Sun:ATL(J.Smoltz)
Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis); Sat:WAS(J.Rauch?)
Jake Peavy: Mon:SF(J.Schmidt); Sat:COL(J.Fogg?)
Andy Pettitte: Tue:FLO(S.Mitre); Sun:WAS(L.Hernandez)
C.C. Sabathia: Sun:@CHW(M.Buehrle); Sun:MIN(J.Santana)
Jason Schmidt: Mon:@SD(J.Peavy); Sat:ATL(T.Hudson)
John Smoltz: Tue:@LAD(B.Penny); Sun:@SF(M.Morris)
Carlos Zambrano: Mon:@CIN(A.Harang); Sun:STL(C.Carpenter)
Barry Zito: Mon:NYY(R.Johnson); Sat:@SEA(J.Moyer)

Pitchers with 2 starts to deploy only in leagues that don't count qualitative stats:
Scott Elarton: Mon:DET(K.Rogers); Sun:CHW(M.Buehrle)
Jason Jennings: Mon:ARI(B.Web); Sun:SD(S.Estes)
Kevin Millwood: Mon:BOS(C.Schilling); Sat:DET(J.Verlander)
Sergio Mitre: Tue:@HOU(A.Pettitte); Sun:@NYM(B.Bannister)
Jamie Moyer: Mon:LAA(B.Colon); Sat:OAK(B.Zito)
Vicente Padilla: Tue:BOS(T.Wakefield); Sun:DET(K.Rogers)
Joel Pineiro: Tue:LAA(J.Lackey); Sun:OAK(R.Harden)
Kenny Rogers: Mon:@KC(S.Elarton); Sun:@TEX(K.Millwood)
Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@CLE(C.Sabathia)
Curt Schilling: Mon:@TEX(K.Millwood); Sat:@BAL(B.Chen)
Tim Wakefield: Tue:@TEX(V.Padilla); Sun:@BAL(T.Wakefield)
Brandon Webb: Mon:@COL(J.Jennings); Sun:@MIL(C.Capuano)
Dontrelle Willis: Mon:@HOU(R.Oswalt); Sat:@NYM(T.Glavine)

Diamond Challenge

To select this roster for the CDM Diamond Challenge, we employed a variation of a method introduced to us in Wise Guy Baseball a few years ago. We determined the expected final stats we will need to finish near the top of each category, calculated what each of our 18 hitter slots and 10 pitcher slots need to average to generate those totals, and then divided our projected stats for each player by the needed value to result in a percentage value indicating their usefulness.

Next we divided that percentage by each player's listed salary (moved several decimal places to the left so that we were not dealing with values looking like .0000X) to give us their approximate CDM Points Per Dollar (PPD) to help us determine our roster.

Catchers: Josh Willingham(1626 PPD/$340) is an automatic choice given his salary and strong chance of playing nearly every day at either catcher or left. Possible bargain options include Doumit, Buck, and if healthy, Yorvit Torrealba, but instead we looked at the other three highest valued catchers: Victor Martinez(570/$1020), Joe Mauer(730/$770), and Michael Barrett(739/$610). We essentially settled on Martinez due to a desire to secure as much power as possible here. Perhaps initially skipping Mauer for a second straight year is second straight mistake, but if he starts strong, we will just purchase him during the year as a third catcher.

First Base: Todd Helton(568 PPD/$1380) leads this pack of superlative performers by virtue of his superb home stats. Travis Hafner(689/$1180) and Ryan Howard(880/$780) rank as the best values among the healthy stars.

Second Base: Rickie Weeks(1281 PPD/$620) almost laps the field with his 20-20 potential, an easy call for his meager cost. We debated a long time about our second player here, first dismissing Marcus Giles(629/$1280) due to his likely slow start. Luis E. Gonzalez(753/$580) lasted on our temporary roster for a long time until we decided his minimal quantitative upside ruined his value for us. As at catcher, we eventually chose the guaranteed power of Chase Utley(573/$1190) over the superior values of Orlando Hudson(812/$680) and Ian Kinsler(1030/$400). Anyone looking for a backup during the season also could consider Mark Ellis(964/$550) as a free agent in a couple weeks.

Third Base: With David Wright(832 PPD/$1210) topping both the PPD and total points list, taking him looks automatic. As we generally want to employ a heavy Coors platoon, Garrett Atkins(PPD/$610) also joins our team. Selecting a platoon partner for Atkins required an extended debate before we settled on Edwin Encarnacion(785/$600) over Morgan Ensberg(713/$1010) for cap reasons.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes(997 PPD/$780) and Clint Barmes(891/$780) belong on everyone's roster. We wish we could take B.J. Upton here, but since Tampa stuck him back in the minors, we were stuck with either Juan Uribe(797/$760) or J.J. Hardy(952/$460). Since Uribe possesses more quantitative upside, selecting him over the Milwaukee sophomore makes sense at this time.

Outfield: Both Matt Holliday(789 PPD/$1040) and Cory Sullivan(1278/$480) are necessary given our Coors intentions; we will skip Brad Hawpe due to the strong possibility of him platooning with Eli Marrero. Joey Gathright(1244/$450) also makes the first cut since we need speed and he currently appears set to play every day. The upside of Ken Griffey(598/$810) necessitates his inclusion since we can bench/drop him whenever he hits the DL.

We know we have a good amount of cap space at this point, so Jason Bay(772 PPD/$1380) seems a superb fit. Looking for one more speedster, we reluctantly passed on both Rotohelp favorite Scott Podsednik(964/$1370) and Juan Pierre(752/$1360) for Chone Figgins(662/$1350), who just seems a safer bet right now despite his potentially worse value for the balance of the year.

Searching for power here led us to both Chad Tracy(726 PPD/$1020) and Pat Burrell(614/$1040). The former will play regularly while Burrell will platoon with Matt Holliday. However, only Burrell's normally high RBI total convinced us to take him. We seriously considered just going with Andruw Jones and almost every other power hitter in the game but believe Burrell offers the best value at the moment. A healthy Brad Wilkerson easily could surpass Burrell's numbers, especially if Texas finds an alternate leadoff man.

Designated Hitter: Helton already owns one spot here, and then since we always wind up adding him anyway, we are going to carry Albert Pujols(562 PPD/$2060) right off the bat. He costs a ton, but we will have weeks with extra cap space and want to deploy the safest core hitter available. While we hate to take a fourth first baseman, we need a platoon partner for Helton, and Mark Teixeira's first-half schedule matches perfectly with Colorado's road trips. We also then can deploy Tex for Howard when we have extra cap space and Tex for Pujols when we need cap space.

Starting Pitcher: We generally ignore stats when rostering out starters, instead focusing on projected DOM/DIS and generally selecting the safest, most dominant pitchers in the game. Our initial survey here produced Johan Santana($1960), Roy Oswalt($1830), Pedro Martinez($1700), Chris Carpenter($1550), Randy Johnson($1360), Jake Peavy($1240), Roy Halladay($1230), Rich Harden($1040), and Felix Hernandez($960), who should comprise the core of a very solid pitching staff.

Rostering just five extra position players and no extra relievers gives us room for four more starters. Barry Zito($1070) looks like a superb value for someone we expect to finish among the top couple pitchers in wins this year. The best cheaper options include John Lackey($940) and Dan Haren($860).

Several pitchers merited at least some consideration for the last spot on our team. Carlos Zambrano, Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, and Joe Blanton all look like fairly good values, but our decision came down to Noah Lowry and Mark Buehrle($1120). Although we rarely own Buehrle in any league due to a general belief in his limited upside, he owns an intriguing early schedule and appears far safer than Lowry, who badly struggled in the first half last year before dominating down the stretch. Lowry heads the list of pitchers we will examine if we grow tired of Buehrle or if someone else requires replacing.

Relief pitcher: Going cheap on saves generally seems mandatory, yet few inexpensive closers appear available. Teams including the Braves, Royals, Rays, Marlins, and even Tigers lack a clear choice certain to see regular save opportunities for the first few months. Chris Ray($820) emerged as the only viable option under 1100.

Selecting our remaining three closers proved surprisingly easy. We expect Huston Street($1300) to lead the majors in saves, giving him an edge on KRod for our most expensive closer. Ryan Dempster($1180), who easily could hit forty saves, and Mike Gonzalez($1120), undoubtedly among baseball's most dominant relievers, both look like solid fits here.

Overall, we believe we are short on power and need another cheap closer but at least hope we can remain competitive until mid-season bargains materialize. The emergence of someone like Brandon McCarthy would give us the chance to echo our success from Gagne's first season in the bullpen.

Roster for Rotohelp.com
C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340
1B	Albert Pujols		2060
1B	Mark Teixeira		1470
1B	Todd Helton		1380
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880

2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	600
SS	Jose Reyes		1030
SS	Clint Barmes		780
SS	Juan Uribe		760
OF	Jason Bay		1380
OF	Chone Figgins		1350
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Pat Burrell		1040
OF	Chad Tracy		1040
OF	Ken Griffey		840
OF	Cory Sullivan		460
OF	Joey Gathright		450

SP	Johan Santana		1960
SP	Roy Oswalt		1830
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Chris Carpenter		1550
SP	Randy Johnson		1360
SP	Jake Peavy		1240
SP	Roy Halladay		1230
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120
SP	Barry Zito		1070
SP	Rich Harden		1040
SP	Felix Hernandez		960
SP	John Lackey		940
SP	Dan Haren		860

RP	Huston Street		1300
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120
RP	Chris Ray		820

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@CLE(C.Sabathia)
Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis); Sat:WAS(J.Rauch?)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:WAS(Ra.Ortiz?)
Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber); Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano)
Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito); Sun:@LAA(B.Colon)
Jake Peavy: Mon:SF(J.Schmidt); Sat:COL(J.Fogg?)
Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana); Sun:TB(S.Kazmir)
Mark Buehrle: Sun:CLE(C.Sabathia); Sun:@KC(S.Elarton)
Barry Zito: Mon:NYY(R.Johnson); Sat:@SEA(J.Moyer)

Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina); Sun:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Felix Hernandez: Fri:OAK(J.Blanton)
John Lackey: Tue:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Dan Haren: Thu:@SEA(G.Meche)

Deploying six double starts in the first week remains a necessity. Santana, Carpenter, and Randy face the toughest overall opposition, so we will confortably run Oswalt, Peavy, Halladay, Buehrle, Zito, and Harden.

Colorado's homestand allows us to use all five Rockies, leaving Encarnacion, Uribe, and Burrell on our bench. We do not see a need to run Gathright right now since both Baltimore and Toronto upgraded behind the plate, and then we simply lack cap space for Pujols this week.

Rotohelp.com(No standings)
Week 1: April 2-April 9

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Jose Reyes		1030
SS	Clint Barmes		780
OF	Jason Bay		1380
OF	Chone Figgins		1350
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Chad Tracy		1040
OF	Ken Griffey		840
OF	Cory Sullivan		460 
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470
DH	Todd Helton		1380

SP	Roy Oswalt		1830
SP	Jake Peavy		1240
SP	Roy Halladay		1230
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120
SP	Barry Zito		1070
SP	Rich Harden		1040
RP	Huston Street		1300
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 1: 	29720

Internet Challenge

Although we considered several variations, we once again settled on the same roster for IC as in DC. The need for offensive flexibility overwhelmed any desire for a fourteenth starting pitcher.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay)
Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:WAS(Ra.Ortiz?)
Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber)
Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito)
Jake Peavy: Mon:SF(J.Schmidt)
Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana)
Mark Buehrle: Sun:CLE(C.Sabathia)
Barry Zito: Mon:NYY(R.Johnson)
Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina)
Felix Hernandez: No start
John Lackey: Tue:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Dan Haren: Thu:@SEA(G.Meche)

Oswalt, Peavy, Buehrle, and Harden all rank as easy calls. We also like Zito over Randy on Opening Day. Selecting a sixth is tough given the choices, but rather than risk another delay for Pedro, we will run Halladay instead of Haren due to the slight concern regarding an Oakland rainout that could kill his start.

Rotohelp.com(No standings)
Week 1a: April 2-April 6

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Jose Reyes		1030
SS	Clint Barmes		780
OF	Jason Bay		1380
OF	Chone Figgins		1350
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Chad Tracy		1040
OF	Ken Griffey		840
OF	Cory Sullivan		460 
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470
DH	Todd Helton		1380

SP	Roy Oswalt		1830
SP	Jake Peavy		1240
SP	Roy Halladay		1230
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120
SP	Barry Zito		1070
SP	Rich Harden		1040
RP	Huston Street		1300
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Week 1a Salary:		29720

Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball
(Same rules = same rosters and moves for both teams)

As we spent nearly as much time selecting these rosters as our DC/IC teams, we will provide detailed discussion of these moves in tomorrow's article. For now, we will just present our initial lineup and deployment decisions.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@CLE(C.Sabathia)
Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis); Sat:WAS(J.Rauch?)
Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber); Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:WAS(Ra.Ortiz?)
Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito); Sun:@LAA(B.Colon)
John Lackey: Tue:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana); Sun:TB(S.Kazmir)
Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina); Sun:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Dan Haren: Thu:@SEA(G.Meche)
Felix Hernandez: Fri:OAK(J.Blanton)

Six doubles leave us no choices in our rotation. A Colorado homestand keeps Teixeira, Encarnacion, and Crosby on our bench. Mauer owns a better schedule than Victor Martinez while Hermida goes into Houston, benching Granderson. Finally, Sizemore, Crisp, and Bonds will sit until we have more OF cap space next week.

Rotohelp.com(FB: No standings)
& Rotohelp.com(BB: No standings)
Week 1: April 2-April 9

C	Joe Mauer		1710
C	Josh Willingham		1000
1B	Travis Hafner		2680
1B	Ryan Howard		1950
2B	Mark Ellis		1340
2B	Rickie Weeks		1300
3B	David Wright		2480
3B	Garrett Atkins		1330 
SS	Felipe Lopez		1800
SS	Clint Barmes		1610
OF	Jason Bay		2550
OF	Ken Griffey		2230
OF	Matt Holliday		2140
OF	Chad Tracy		2100
OF	Cory Sullivan		1180
OF	Jeremy Hermida		1000
DH	Todd Helton		3040
DH	Lance Berkman		2860

SP	Johan Santana		3310
SP	Roy Oswalt		3200
SP	Chris Carpenter		3140
SP	Randy Johnson		2910
SP	Roy Halladay		2480
SP	Rich Harden		2430
RP	Huston Street		2320
RP	Ryan Dempster		2150
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1820
RP	Chris Ray		1580

Total Salary for Week 1:	59640

Taxi Squad
C	Victor Martinez		1940
1B	Mark Teixeira		3220
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	1030 
SS	Bobby Crosby		1640
OF	Barry Bonds		2720
OF	Grady Sizemore		2200
OF	Coco Crisp		2080
OF	Curtis Granderson	1000
SP	Pedro Martinez		2970
SP	John Lackey		2760
SP	Dan Haren		1940
SP	Felix Hernandez		1650

Today's Fantasy Rx: Opening Night features a superb match-up as Cleveland travels to Chicago to face the World Series Champions on ESPN2 at 7:00PM CDT. I strongly suspect we will see why both clubs, particularly the Indians, will slip back a few wins this year.

If you are looking for a national contest with minimal fees, CDM's Budget Baseball remains a solid bargain. Remember to go with the best W/K/IP pitchers without regard for ERA or WHIP, then deploy the best offense possible on a weekly basis.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.


Rotohelp Our Philosophy		2006 Week in Preview: Week 1 by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx Schedule recommendations for teams with 7 games Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers Pittsburgh: 3 Road at MIN; 4 Road at CIN. Texas: 3 Home vs. BOS; 4 Home vs. DET. Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers Atlanta: 3 Road at LAD; 4 Road at SF. Oakland: 3 Home vs. NYY; 4 Road at SEA. San Francisco: 3 Road at SD; 4 Home vs. ATL. Seattle: 3 Home vs. LAA: 4 Home vs. OAK. Schedule recommendations for teams with 6 games Good for hitters / Good for pitchers Baltimore: 3 Home vs. TB; 3 Home vs. BOS. Chicago White Sox: 3 Home vs. CLE: 3 Road at KC. Houston: 3 Home vs. FLO; 3 Home vs. WAS. Milwaukee: 3 Home vs. PIT; 3 Home vs. ARI. New York Mets: 3 Home vs. WAS; 3 Home vs. FLO. Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers Arizona: 3 Road at COL; 3 Road at MIL. Boston: 3 Road at TEX; 3 Road at BAL. Cincinnati: 2 Home vs. CHC; 4 Home vs. PIT. Colorado: 3 Home vs. ARI; 3 Road at SD. Detroit: 2 Road at KC; 4 Road at TEX. Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 Home vs. ATL; 3 Road at PHI. Minnesota: 3 Road at TOR; 3 Road at CLE. Philadelphia: 3 Home vs. STL; 3 Home vs. LAD. St. Louis: 3 Road at PHI; 3 Road at CHC. Toronto: 3 Home vs. MIN; 3 Home vs. TB. Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers Los Angeles Angels: 3 Road at SEA; 3 Home vs. NYY. San Diego: 3 Home vs. SF; 3 Home vs. COL. Bad for hitters / Bad for pitchers Cleveland: 3 Road at CHW; 3 Home vs. MIN. Florida: 3 Road at HOU; 3 Road at NYM. New York Yankees: 3 Road at OAK; 3 Road at LAA. Tampa Bay: 3 Road at BAL; 3 Road at TOR. Schedule recommendations for teams with 5 games Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers Chicago Cubs: 2 Road at CHC; 3 Home vs. STL. Kansas City: 2 Home vs. DET; 3 Home vs. CHW. Pitchers with 2 starts(to deploy everywhere you own them): Mark Buehrle: Sun:CLE(C.Sabathia); Sun:@KC(S.Elarton) Chris Capuano: Tue:PIT(Z.Duke); Sun:ARI(B.Webb) Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber); Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano) Bartolo Colon: Mon:@SEA(J.Moyer); Sun:NYY(R.Johnson) Doug Davis: Mon:PIT(Ol.Perez); Sat:ARI(C.Vargas) Shawn Estes: Tue:SF(M.Morris); Sun:COL(J.Jennings) Tom Glavine: Mon:WAS(L.Hernandez); Sat:FLO(D.Willis) Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana); Sun:TB(S.Kazmir) Aaron Harang: Mon:CHC(C.Zambrano); Sun:PIT(Ol.Perez) Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina); Sun:@SEA(J.Pineiro) Livan Hernandez: Mon:@NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:@HOU(A.Pettitte) Tim Hudson: Mon:@LAD(D.Lowe); Sat:@SF(J.Schmidt) Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito); Sun:@LAA(B.Colon) Scott Kazmir: Mon:@BAL(Rod.Lopez); Sat:@TOR(S.Downs?) Jon Lieber: Mon:STL(C.Carpenter); Sun:LAD(D.Lowe) Rod Lopez: Mon:TB(S.Kazmir); Sun:BOS(T.Wakefield) Derek Lowe: Mon:ATL(T.Hudson); Sun:@PHI(J.Lieber) Matt Morris: Tue:@SD(S.Estes); Sun:ATL(J.Smoltz) Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis); Sat:WAS(J.Rauch?) Jake Peavy: Mon:SF(J.Schmidt); Sat:COL(J.Fogg?) Andy Pettitte: Tue:FLO(S.Mitre); Sun:WAS(L.Hernandez) C.C. Sabathia: Sun:@CHW(M.Buehrle); Sun:MIN(J.Santana) Jason Schmidt: Mon:@SD(J.Peavy); Sat:ATL(T.Hudson) John Smoltz: Tue:@LAD(B.Penny); Sun:@SF(M.Morris) Carlos Zambrano: Mon:@CIN(A.Harang); Sun:STL(C.Carpenter) Barry Zito: Mon:NYY(R.Johnson); Sat:@SEA(J.Moyer) Pitchers with 2 starts to deploy only in leagues that don't count qualitative stats: Scott Elarton: Mon:DET(K.Rogers); Sun:CHW(M.Buehrle) Jason Jennings: Mon:ARI(B.Web); Sun:SD(S.Estes) Kevin Millwood: Mon:BOS(C.Schilling); Sat:DET(J.Verlander) Sergio Mitre: Tue:@HOU(A.Pettitte); Sun:@NYM(B.Bannister) Jamie Moyer: Mon:LAA(B.Colon); Sat:OAK(B.Zito) Vicente Padilla: Tue:BOS(T.Wakefield); Sun:DET(K.Rogers) Joel Pineiro: Tue:LAA(J.Lackey); Sun:OAK(R.Harden) Kenny Rogers: Mon:@KC(S.Elarton); Sun:@TEX(K.Millwood) Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@CLE(C.Sabathia) Curt Schilling: Mon:@TEX(K.Millwood); Sat:@BAL(B.Chen) Tim Wakefield: Tue:@TEX(V.Padilla); Sun:@BAL(T.Wakefield) Brandon Webb: Mon:@COL(J.Jennings); Sun:@MIL(C.Capuano) Dontrelle Willis: Mon:@HOU(R.Oswalt); Sat:@NYM(T.Glavine) Diamond Challenge To select this roster for the CDM Diamond Challenge, we employed a variation of a method introduced to us in Wise Guy Baseball a few years ago. We determined the expected final stats we will need to finish near the top of each category, calculated what each of our 18 hitter slots and 10 pitcher slots need to average to generate those totals, and then divided our projected stats for each player by the needed value to result in a percentage value indicating their usefulness. Next we divided that percentage by each player's listed salary (moved several decimal places to the left so that we were not dealing with values looking like .0000X) to give us their approximate CDM Points Per Dollar (PPD) to help us determine our roster. Catchers: Josh Willingham(1626 PPD/$340) is an automatic choice given his salary and strong chance of playing nearly every day at either catcher or left. Possible bargain options include Doumit, Buck, and if healthy, Yorvit Torrealba, but instead we looked at the other three highest valued catchers: Victor Martinez(570/$1020), Joe Mauer(730/$770), and Michael Barrett(739/$610). We essentially settled on Martinez due to a desire to secure as much power as possible here. Perhaps initially skipping Mauer for a second straight year is second straight mistake, but if he starts strong, we will just purchase him during the year as a third catcher. First Base: Todd Helton(568 PPD/$1380) leads this pack of superlative performers by virtue of his superb home stats. Travis Hafner(689/$1180) and Ryan Howard(880/$780) rank as the best values among the healthy stars. Second Base: Rickie Weeks(1281 PPD/$620) almost laps the field with his 20-20 potential, an easy call for his meager cost. We debated a long time about our second player here, first dismissing Marcus Giles(629/$1280) due to his likely slow start. Luis E. Gonzalez(753/$580) lasted on our temporary roster for a long time until we decided his minimal quantitative upside ruined his value for us. As at catcher, we eventually chose the guaranteed power of Chase Utley(573/$1190) over the superior values of Orlando Hudson(812/$680) and Ian Kinsler(1030/$400). Anyone looking for a backup during the season also could consider Mark Ellis(964/$550) as a free agent in a couple weeks. Third Base: With David Wright(832 PPD/$1210) topping both the PPD and total points list, taking him looks automatic. As we generally want to employ a heavy Coors platoon, Garrett Atkins(PPD/$610) also joins our team. Selecting a platoon partner for Atkins required an extended debate before we settled on Edwin Encarnacion(785/$600) over Morgan Ensberg(713/$1010) for cap reasons. Shortstop: Jose Reyes(997 PPD/$780) and Clint Barmes(891/$780) belong on everyone's roster. We wish we could take B.J. Upton here, but since Tampa stuck him back in the minors, we were stuck with either Juan Uribe(797/$760) or J.J. Hardy(952/$460). Since Uribe possesses more quantitative upside, selecting him over the Milwaukee sophomore makes sense at this time. Outfield: Both Matt Holliday(789 PPD/$1040) and Cory Sullivan(1278/$480) are necessary given our Coors intentions; we will skip Brad Hawpe due to the strong possibility of him platooning with Eli Marrero. Joey Gathright(1244/$450) also makes the first cut since we need speed and he currently appears set to play every day. The upside of Ken Griffey(598/$810) necessitates his inclusion since we can bench/drop him whenever he hits the DL. We know we have a good amount of cap space at this point, so Jason Bay(772 PPD/$1380) seems a superb fit. Looking for one more speedster, we reluctantly passed on both Rotohelp favorite Scott Podsednik(964/$1370) and Juan Pierre(752/$1360) for Chone Figgins(662/$1350), who just seems a safer bet right now despite his potentially worse value for the balance of the year. Searching for power here led us to both Chad Tracy(726 PPD/$1020) and Pat Burrell(614/$1040). The former will play regularly while Burrell will platoon with Matt Holliday. However, only Burrell's normally high RBI total convinced us to take him. We seriously considered just going with Andruw Jones and almost every other power hitter in the game but believe Burrell offers the best value at the moment. A healthy Brad Wilkerson easily could surpass Burrell's numbers, especially if Texas finds an alternate leadoff man. Designated Hitter: Helton already owns one spot here, and then since we always wind up adding him anyway, we are going to carry Albert Pujols(562 PPD/$2060) right off the bat. He costs a ton, but we will have weeks with extra cap space and want to deploy the safest core hitter available. While we hate to take a fourth first baseman, we need a platoon partner for Helton, and Mark Teixeira's first-half schedule matches perfectly with Colorado's road trips. We also then can deploy Tex for Howard when we have extra cap space and Tex for Pujols when we need cap space. Starting Pitcher: We generally ignore stats when rostering out starters, instead focusing on projected DOM/DIS and generally selecting the safest, most dominant pitchers in the game. Our initial survey here produced Johan Santana($1960), Roy Oswalt($1830), Pedro Martinez($1700), Chris Carpenter($1550), Randy Johnson($1360), Jake Peavy($1240), Roy Halladay($1230), Rich Harden($1040), and Felix Hernandez($960), who should comprise the core of a very solid pitching staff. Rostering just five extra position players and no extra relievers gives us room for four more starters. Barry Zito($1070) looks like a superb value for someone we expect to finish among the top couple pitchers in wins this year. The best cheaper options include John Lackey($940) and Dan Haren($860). Several pitchers merited at least some consideration for the last spot on our team. Carlos Zambrano, Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, and Joe Blanton all look like fairly good values, but our decision came down to Noah Lowry and Mark Buehrle($1120). Although we rarely own Buehrle in any league due to a general belief in his limited upside, he owns an intriguing early schedule and appears far safer than Lowry, who badly struggled in the first half last year before dominating down the stretch. Lowry heads the list of pitchers we will examine if we grow tired of Buehrle or if someone else requires replacing. Relief pitcher: Going cheap on saves generally seems mandatory, yet few inexpensive closers appear available. Teams including the Braves, Royals, Rays, Marlins, and even Tigers lack a clear choice certain to see regular save opportunities for the first few months. Chris Ray($820) emerged as the only viable option under 1100. Selecting our remaining three closers proved surprisingly easy. We expect Huston Street($1300) to lead the majors in saves, giving him an edge on KRod for our most expensive closer. Ryan Dempster($1180), who easily could hit forty saves, and Mike Gonzalez($1120), undoubtedly among baseball's most dominant relievers, both look like solid fits here. Overall, we believe we are short on power and need another cheap closer but at least hope we can remain competitive until mid-season bargains materialize. The emergence of someone like Brandon McCarthy would give us the chance to echo our success from Gagne's first season in the bullpen. Roster for Rotohelp.com C Victor Martinez 1020 C Josh Willingham 340 1B Albert Pujols 2060 1B Mark Teixeira 1470 1B Todd Helton 1380 1B Travis Hafner 1180 1B Ryan Howard 880 2B Chase Utley 1190 2B Rickie Weeks 620 3B David Wright 1210 3B Garrett Atkins 610 3B Edwin Encarnacion 600 SS Jose Reyes 1030 SS Clint Barmes 780 SS Juan Uribe 760 OF Jason Bay 1380 OF Chone Figgins 1350 OF Matt Holliday 1040 OF Pat Burrell 1040 OF Chad Tracy 1040 OF Ken Griffey 840 OF Cory Sullivan 460 OF Joey Gathright 450 SP Johan Santana 1960 SP Roy Oswalt 1830 SP Pedro Martinez 1700 SP Chris Carpenter 1550 SP Randy Johnson 1360 SP Jake Peavy 1240 SP Roy Halladay 1230 SP Mark Buehrle 1120 SP Barry Zito 1070 SP Rich Harden 1040 SP Felix Hernandez 960 SP John Lackey 940 SP Dan Haren 860 RP Huston Street 1300 RP Ryan Dempster 1180 RP Mike Gonzalez 1120 RP Chris Ray 820 SP(6) Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@CLE(C.Sabathia) Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis); Sat:WAS(J.Rauch?) Pedro Martinez: Thu:WAS(Ra.Ortiz?) Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber); Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano) Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito); Sun:@LAA(B.Colon) Jake Peavy: Mon:SF(J.Schmidt); Sat:COL(J.Fogg?) Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana); Sun:TB(S.Kazmir) Mark Buehrle: Sun:CLE(C.Sabathia); Sun:@KC(S.Elarton) Barry Zito: Mon:NYY(R.Johnson); Sat:@SEA(J.Moyer) Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina); Sun:@SEA(J.Pineiro) Felix Hernandez: Fri:OAK(J.Blanton) John Lackey: Tue:@SEA(J.Pineiro) Dan Haren: Thu:@SEA(G.Meche) Deploying six double starts in the first week remains a necessity. Santana, Carpenter, and Randy face the toughest overall opposition, so we will confortably run Oswalt, Peavy, Halladay, Buehrle, Zito, and Harden. Colorado's homestand allows us to use all five Rockies, leaving Encarnacion, Uribe, and Burrell on our bench. We do not see a need to run Gathright right now since both Baltimore and Toronto upgraded behind the plate, and then we simply lack cap space for Pujols this week. Rotohelp.com(No standings) Week 1: April 2-April 9 C Victor Martinez 1020 C Josh Willingham 340 1B Travis Hafner 1180 1B Ryan Howard 880 2B Chase Utley 1190 2B Rickie Weeks 620 3B David Wright 1210 3B Garrett Atkins 610 SS Jose Reyes 1030 SS Clint Barmes 780 OF Jason Bay 1380 OF Chone Figgins 1350 OF Matt Holliday 1040 OF Chad Tracy 1040 OF Ken Griffey 840 OF Cory Sullivan 460 DH Mark Teixeira 1470 DH Todd Helton 1380 SP Roy Oswalt 1830 SP Jake Peavy 1240 SP Roy Halladay 1230 SP Mark Buehrle 1120 SP Barry Zito 1070 SP Rich Harden 1040 RP Huston Street 1300 RP Ryan Dempster 1180 RP Mike Gonzalez 1120 RP Chris Ray 820 Total Salary for Week 1: 29720 Internet Challenge Although we considered several variations, we once again settled on the same roster for IC as in DC. The need for offensive flexibility overwhelmed any desire for a fourteenth starting pitcher. SP(6) Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay) Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis) Pedro Martinez: Thu:WAS(Ra.Ortiz?) Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber) Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito) Jake Peavy: Mon:SF(J.Schmidt) Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana) Mark Buehrle: Sun:CLE(C.Sabathia) Barry Zito: Mon:NYY(R.Johnson) Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina) Felix Hernandez: No start John Lackey: Tue:@SEA(J.Pineiro) Dan Haren: Thu:@SEA(G.Meche) Oswalt, Peavy, Buehrle, and Harden all rank as easy calls. We also like Zito over Randy on Opening Day. Selecting a sixth is tough given the choices, but rather than risk another delay for Pedro, we will run Halladay instead of Haren due to the slight concern regarding an Oakland rainout that could kill his start. Rotohelp.com(No standings) Week 1a: April 2-April 6 C Victor Martinez 1020 C Josh Willingham 340 1B Travis Hafner 1180 1B Ryan Howard 880 2B Chase Utley 1190 2B Rickie Weeks 620 3B David Wright 1210 3B Garrett Atkins 610 SS Jose Reyes 1030 SS Clint Barmes 780 OF Jason Bay 1380 OF Chone Figgins 1350 OF Matt Holliday 1040 OF Chad Tracy 1040 OF Ken Griffey 840 OF Cory Sullivan 460 DH Mark Teixeira 1470 DH Todd Helton 1380 SP Roy Oswalt 1830 SP Jake Peavy 1240 SP Roy Halladay 1230 SP Mark Buehrle 1120 SP Barry Zito 1070 SP Rich Harden 1040 RP Huston Street 1300 RP Ryan Dempster 1180 RP Mike Gonzalez 1120 RP Chris Ray 820 Total Week 1a Salary: 29720 Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball (Same rules = same rosters and moves for both teams) As we spent nearly as much time selecting these rosters as our DC/IC teams, we will provide detailed discussion of these moves in tomorrow's article. For now, we will just present our initial lineup and deployment decisions. SP(6) Johan Santana: Mon:@TOR(R.Halladay); Sun:@CLE(C.Sabathia) Roy Oswalt: Mon:FLO(D.Willis); Sat:WAS(J.Rauch?) Chris Carpenter: Mon:@PHI(J.Lieber); Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano) Pedro Martinez: Thu:WAS(Ra.Ortiz?) Randy Johnson: Mon:@OAK(B.Zito); Sun:@LAA(B.Colon) John Lackey: Tue:@SEA(J.Pineiro) Roy Halladay: Tue:MIN(J.Santana); Sun:TB(S.Kazmir) Rich Harden: Tue:NYY(M.Mussina); Sun:@SEA(J.Pineiro) Dan Haren: Thu:@SEA(G.Meche) Felix Hernandez: Fri:OAK(J.Blanton) Six doubles leave us no choices in our rotation. A Colorado homestand keeps Teixeira, Encarnacion, and Crosby on our bench. Mauer owns a better schedule than Victor Martinez while Hermida goes into Houston, benching Granderson. Finally, Sizemore, Crisp, and Bonds will sit until we have more OF cap space next week. Rotohelp.com(FB: No standings) & Rotohelp.com(BB: No standings) Week 1: April 2-April 9 C Joe Mauer 1710 C Josh Willingham 1000 1B Travis Hafner 2680 1B Ryan Howard 1950 2B Mark Ellis 1340 2B Rickie Weeks 1300 3B David Wright 2480 3B Garrett Atkins 1330 SS Felipe Lopez 1800 SS Clint Barmes 1610 OF Jason Bay 2550 OF Ken Griffey 2230 OF Matt Holliday 2140 OF Chad Tracy 2100 OF Cory Sullivan 1180 OF Jeremy Hermida 1000 DH Todd Helton 3040 DH Lance Berkman 2860 SP Johan Santana 3310 SP Roy Oswalt 3200 SP Chris Carpenter 3140 SP Randy Johnson 2910 SP Roy Halladay 2480 SP Rich Harden 2430 RP Huston Street 2320 RP Ryan Dempster 2150 RP Mike Gonzalez 1820 RP Chris Ray 1580 Total Salary for Week 1: 59640 Taxi Squad C Victor Martinez 1940 1B Mark Teixeira 3220 3B Edwin Encarnacion 1030 SS Bobby Crosby 1640 OF Barry Bonds 2720 OF Grady Sizemore 2200 OF Coco Crisp 2080 OF Curtis Granderson 1000 SP Pedro Martinez 2970 SP John Lackey 2760 SP Dan Haren 1940 SP Felix Hernandez 1650 Today's Fantasy Rx: Opening Night features a superb match-up as Cleveland travels to Chicago to face the World Series Champions on ESPN2 at 7:00PM CDT. I strongly suspect we will see why both clubs, particularly the Indians, will slip back a few wins this year. If you are looking for a national contest with minimal fees, CDM's Budget Baseball remains a solid bargain. Remember to go with the best W/K/IP pitchers without regard for ERA or WHIP, then deploy the best offense possible on a weekly basis. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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