|
||
March 30th 2006 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
|
|||||||||
Our Philosophy |
by Tim Polko Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here. The file also includes position eligibility data based on the standard 20 game minimum. The Draft Values presented below only apply to NL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a .2569 BA as the baseline value necessary to calculate the BA Category Dollars. Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each hitter, and then our Scoresheet projections adjust that RAR to consider each player's defensive rating in that format. While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen players who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 314 National League batters with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2006 spring draft.
Top 3 AL 5x5 Batters: Albert Pujols, $46; Juan Pierre, $38; Jason Bay, $38. Top 3 Sim Batters: Albert Pujols, 75.9 RAR; Jason Bay, 59.2; Todd Helton, 55.4. Top 3 Scoresheet Batters: Albert Pujols, 79.2 ARAR; Todd Helton, 68.5; Derrek Lee, 57.9.
C: Yorvit Torrealba, Yadier Molina. 1B: Adam LaRoche, Mike Jacobs. 3B: David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion. 2B: Chase Utley, Jose Castillo. SS: Khalil Greene, Adam Everett. OF: Austin Kearns, Brad Hawpe, Ryan Langerhans, Xavier Nady, Larry Bigbie. Top 3 Batters who could beat this projection with more AB: Ryan Freel, Chris Burke, Nate McLouth. "Cheap" speed that shouldn't cost this much: Hector Luna, Jason Ellison, Jeff DaVanon. Top 4 "$1" Catchers: Miguel Olivo, Ramon Castro, Chris Snyder. Top 2006 AL Batter Sleeper: Juan Encarnacion, $22/$21. A few players like Cory Sullivan, Jack Wilson, Luis A. Gonzalez, and Adam LaRoche earned consideration here, but even without rediscovering his lost speed, Encarnacion looks prepared to flourish in St. Louis. He owns strong base power skills and almost certainly will spend all season hitting behind Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, presenting him with an absolute ton of RBI opportunities. Even a 30/100 season wouldn't shock me, so take advantage of any lull in the bidding to grab him anywhere in the teens.
Batter 4x4 5x5 RAR ARAR Abercrombie, Reggie 1 2 -16.3 -16.3 Abreu, Bobby 36 34 38.2 37.2 Aguila, Chris 9 9 1.1 -1.5 Alfonzo, Eliezer -3 -3 0.0 0.0 Alomar, Jr., Sandy -6 -5 -5.3 -5.9 Alou, Moises 22 21 23.2 16.7 Amezaga, Alfredo -1 -1 -4.0 -4.0 Anderson, Marlon 1 1 -2.1 -4.4 Andino, Robert -1 0 -2.7 -2.7 Ankiel, Rick -3 -3 -1.7 -1.7 Ardoin, Danny 0 0 3.5 6.1 Atkins, Garrett 15 15 4.7 -0.5 Aurilia, Rich 2 2 4.2 0.3 Ausmus, Brad -1 0 -1.7 -1.0 Aybar, Willy -3 -3 -1.2 -1.2 Bagwell, Jeff -3 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Baker, Jeff -2 -3 0.5 0.5 Barfield, Josh 8 8 2.3 2.3 Barmes, Clint 28 28 28.1 24.6 Barrett, Michael 15 14 28.1 23.6 Bautista, Jose -3 -3 -0.4 -0.4 Bay, Jason 40 38 59.2 51.9 Bell, David 2 2 -5.3 0.6 Bellhorn, Mark -4 -3 -1.5 -0.7 Beltran, Carlos 29 27 20.8 35.2 Bennett, Gary -1 -1 1.1 1.1 Bergolla, Willie -2 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Berkman, Lance 31 30 52.4 48.2 Betemit, Wilson 3 4 5.6 4.8 Bigbie, Larry 7 7 5.5 6.4 Biggio, Craig 8 10 9.0 1.5 Blanco, Henry -5 -4 -3.3 -1.8 Blum, Geoff 2 2 5.8 1.8 Bonds, Barry 25 25 48.8 43.3 Bourn, Mike -3 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Broadway, Larry -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Bruntlett, Eric 3 3 4.1 2.4 Burke, Chris 11 11 9.5 1.9 Burnitz, Jeromy 12 13 5.3 4.4 Burrell, Pat 21 20 34.0 30.1 Byrd, Marlon 5 5 -4.1 -3.2 Byrnes, Eric 10 10 8.3 9.2 Cabrera, Miguel 26 25 34.5 33.5 Callaspo, Alberto -1 -2 0.7 0.7 Cameron, Mike 9 9 -2.1 6.6 Carroll, Jamey 5 5 8.9 6.4 Casey, Sean 18 18 8.9 8.0 Castilla, Vinny -1 0 -7.8 -4.5 Castillo, Alberto -4 -4 -2.6 -2.6 Castillo, Jose 8 9 8.1 5.6 Casto, Kory -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Castro, Bernie -3 -3 -0.6 -0.6 Castro, Ramon 0 0 4.5 5.4 Cedeno, Ronny 10 10 9.8 9.0 Cepicky, Matt -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Chavez, Angel -3 -3 -0.6 -0.6 Chavez, Endy 1 1 -4.2 -3.4 Chavez, Raul -5 -5 -4.6 -4.0 Church, Ryan 2 2 -2.2 -3.0 Cirillo, Jeff 1 1 1.7 1.7 Clark, Brady 15 15 3.5 12.4 Clark, Tony 7 7 12.6 11.5 Clayton, Royce -4 -3 -4.7 -6.7 Closser, J.D. 0 0 5.7 4.0 Coste, Chris -3 -3 -0.8 -5.4 Cota, Humberto -3 -3 -1.6 -1.6 Counsell, Craig 0 1 -0.4 1.1 Cruz, Jacob -2 -2 -0.7 -0.7 Cruz, Jr., Jose 8 9 10.4 9.4 Cruz, Nelson -2 -2 0.5 0.5 Daubach, Brian -3 -3 0.0 0.0 DaVanon, Jeff 5 6 5.5 7.3 Delgado, Carlos 22 21 28.5 27.5 Denorfia, Chris -2 -2 -0.5 -0.5 Diaz, Matt 8 7 4.4 2.6 Diaz, Victor 6 6 5.0 0.6 Doumit, Ryan 3 4 -0.2 1.4 Drew, J.D. 14 15 23.6 27.6 Drew, Stephen 4 4 9.1 9.1 Duffy, Chris 8 8 -5.5 -1.4 Duncan, Chris -2 -2 -1.2 -1.2 Dunn, Adam 17 18 36.3 35.3 Durham, Ray 12 13 15.5 10.4 Easley, Damion -1 0 3.7 1.3 Eckstein, David 14 15 9.7 9.7 Edmonds, Jim 18 18 38.2 51.6 Edwards, Mike -3 -3 -0.5 -0.5 Eldred, Brad -2 -2 0.1 -0.8 Ellison, Jason 7 7 -5.8 -1.6 Encarnacion, Edwin 8 9 7.1 3.5 Encarnacion, Juan 22 21 17.7 13.9 Ensberg, Morgan 25 24 41.1 41.1 Estrada, Johnny 7 6 8.9 7.2 Ethier, Andre -2 -3 0.6 0.6 Everett, Adam 10 9 3.6 16.8 Fasano, Sal -1 0 2.3 0.6 Feliz, Pedro 4 8 -10.4 -2.8 Fick, Rob -2 -2 0.1 -1.4 Fielder, Prince 15 15 8.3 8.3 Finley, Steve 4 5 -5.5 -3.8 Floyd, Cliff 14 14 7.7 5.0 Franco, Julio 1 1 -2.8 -2.8 Francoeur, Jeff 13 13 6.9 3.3 Frandsen, Kevin -2 -3 0.3 0.3 Freel, Ryan 18 18 4.0 6.4 Freeman, Choo -2 -2 -1.8 -1.0 Furcal, Rafael 22 22 14.9 18.2 Gall, John -3 -3 0.0 0.0 Garciaparra, Nomar 21 20 31.4 17.5 Gerut, Jody 6 5 8.1 5.3 Giles, Brian 28 27 50.9 49.9 Giles, Marcus 30 30 40.7 57.3 Gimenez, Hector -3 -3 0.3 0.3 Godwin, Tyrell -3 -3 -1.5 -1.5 Gonzalez, Adrian 2 2 -1.1 -1.1 Gonzalez, Alex S. 1 1 3.7 2.9 Gonzalez, Luis 8 10 6.7 1.6 Gonzalez, Luis A. 18 17 17.4 12.1 Gonzalez, Wiki -3 -4 -0.6 -0.6 Green, Andy 1 1 2.8 2.8 Green, Shawn 18 18 21.2 20.3 Greene, Khalil 18 18 27.4 21.2 Greene, Todd -1 -1 0.3 -2.0 Griffey, Jr., Ken 13 13 19.4 18.4 Gross, Gabe -2 -2 -0.6 -1.4 Guillen, Jose 4 5 -2.2 -4.8 Guzman, Cristian 5 5 4.5 -1.0 Guzman, Freddy -2 -3 -1.3 -1.3 Guzman, Joel -2 -2 1.9 1.9 Gwynn, Anthony -3 -3 -1.3 -1.3 Hairston, Jerry 8 8 5.1 7.6 Hairston, Scott -1 -2 1.5 1.5 Hall, Bill 12 11 12.8 14.5 Hardy, J.J. 8 10 17.5 12.5 Harris, Brendan -3 -3 0.1 0.1 Hart, Corey 4 5 0.1 0.1 Hatteberg, Scott 4 4 -4.4 -7.8 Hawpe, Brad 11 11 12.2 5.1 Helms, Wes -1 -1 -5.6 -12.7 Helton, Todd 35 33 55.4 68.5 Hermida, Jeremy 21 22 17.3 16.4 Hernandez, Anderson 7 7 0.1 0.1 Hernandez, Jose -2 -1 0.5 0.5 Hill, Koyie -4 -4 0.0 0.0 Holliday, Matt 33 30 32.7 27.7 Howard, Ryan 17 17 15.2 14.3 Hudson, Orlando 18 18 21.4 38.1 Izturis, Cesar -1 0 -7.0 -4.9 Jackson, Conor 9 9 8.7 8.7 Jackson, Damian 0 1 -2.1 -4.3 Jacobs, Mike 10 11 -0.7 -1.6 Jenkins, Geoff 16 18 20.1 18.2 Jimerson, Charlton -3 -3 -1.7 -1.7 Johnson, Ben -2 -2 -2.4 -2.4 Johnson, Kelly -1 -1 -1.2 -0.4 Johnson, Mark -4 -4 -1.1 -1.1 Johnson, Nick 17 16 23.5 26.5 Jones, Andruw 25 24 30.5 42.7 Jones, Chipper 27 26 47.9 39.6 Jones, Jacque 15 15 5.6 2.9 Jordan, Brian -4 -4 -6.1 -6.1 Jurries, James -2 -2 0.1 0.1 Kata, Matt -3 -3 -2.1 -2.1 Kearns, Austin 19 19 20.0 21.9 Kent, Jeff 18 19 23.5 21.7 Keppinger, Jeff 0 0 1.9 1.9 Klesko, Ryan 5 7 1.5 -3.5 Knoedler, Justin -3 -3 -1.3 -1.3 Koskie, Corey 7 8 5.0 6.8 Kottaras, George -3 -3 0.9 0.9 Kroeger, Josh -2 -3 0.9 0.9 Krynzel, Dave -3 -3 -1.0 -1.0 LaForest, Pete -4 -4 -0.5 -0.5 Lamb, Mike 3 4 0.8 -4.4 Lane, Jason 21 20 26.4 19.5 Langerhans, Ryan 9 11 7.3 7.3 LaRoche, Adam 17 17 17.5 11.7 LaRoche, Andy -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 LaRue, Jason 5 5 11.5 16.8 LeCroy, Matt -1 -1 2.1 0.6 Ledee, Ricky 3 3 2.1 1.2 Lee, Carlos 21 20 13.0 9.3 Lee, Derrek 33 32 46.0 57.9 Lieberthal, Mike 8 8 14.6 11.2 Linden, Todd 0 1 -1.2 -1.2 Lo Duca, Paul 8 8 4.6 -0.1 Lofton, Kenny 16 15 -0.1 7.7 Loney, James -2 -3 0.3 0.3 Long, Terrence -2 -2 -1.8 -1.8 Lopez, Felipe 23 23 35.3 25.6 Luna, Hector 6 6 -2.0 -0.4 Mabry, John 2 2 0.2 -2.3 Marrero, Eli 4 4 6.5 5.5 Martin, Russ -1 -1 0.9 0.9 Martinez, Ramon E. -2 -2 0.4 -0.3 Matheny, Mike -3 -2 -3.0 2.5 Matsui, Kazuo 3 3 4.9 4.9 McAnulty, Paul -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 McCann, Brian 4 5 -0.2 -0.2 McCracken, Quinton -2 -2 -3.9 -3.9 McLouth, Nate 8 7 -3.6 -2.8 Menechino, Frank -4 -4 -1.3 -1.3 Miles, Aaron 0 0 -6.3 -7.0 Milledge, Lastings 2 1 2.8 2.8 Miller, Damian 0 1 2.5 2.5 Mirabelli, Doug -7 -6 -5.1 -8.5 Moeller, Chad -4 -2 -0.7 -3.0 Molina, Yadier 4 4 0.2 10.5 Montero, Miguel -3 -3 -0.6 -0.6 Mueller, Bill 6 7 2.7 2.7 Munson, Eric -3 -3 -1.5 -1.5 Murton, Matt 7 8 1.8 -1.6 Nady, Xavier 12 11 3.8 3.8 Navarro, Dioner 2 3 3.4 1.8 Niekro, Lance 7 7 -1.3 1.4 Nunez, Abraham O. 2 2 1.4 -0.1 Ojeda, Miguel -3 -3 0.5 0.5 Olivo, Miguel 4 4 4.9 6.6 Olmedo, Ray -4 -4 -1.0 -1.0 Orr, Pete 5 5 0.3 0.3 Ortmeier, Dan -3 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Pagan, Angel -1 -1 -3.2 -3.2 Palmeiro, Orlando 0 0 -1.4 -1.4 Paulino, Ronny -2 -2 1.5 1.5 Pena, Brayan -2 -3 0.6 0.6 Pena, Tony -3 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Perez, Eddie -4 -4 -1.0 -1.0 Perez, Neifi 3 3 0.5 8.5 Perez, Timo -4 -4 -2.5 -2.5 Perez, Tomas -3 -3 -2.4 -5.1 Piazza, Mike 2 3 8.3 -3.5 Pie, Felix 1 1 1.9 1.9 Piedra, Jorge 1 1 1.1 0.2 Pierre, Juan 41 38 8.5 11.2 Pratt, Todd -4 -4 -1.5 -1.5 Pujols, Albert 49 46 75.9 79.2 Quentin, Carlos 6 6 7.1 7.1 Quintanilla, Omar -2 -2 1.5 1.5 Ramirez, Aramis 27 26 40.3 25.2 Ramirez, Hanley -3 -1 -5.5 -5.5 Randa, Joe 8 8 2.3 7.6 Reed, Eric 1 1 -8.5 -8.5 Renteria, Edgar 21 21 18.3 18.3 Repko, Jason -2 -3 -2.5 -1.6 Restovich, Mike -2 -2 -0.3 -1.2 Reyes, Jose 36 34 15.2 5.4 Roberts, Dave 12 12 1.7 4.3 Robles, Oscar -3 -2 0.0 0.0 Rodriguez, John 1 1 -1.6 -1.6 Rolen, Scott 14 15 15.7 27.3 Rollins, Jimmy 35 33 34.5 27.4 Ross, Cody -4 -4 -1.1 -1.1 Ross, Dave -3 -3 -0.6 0.2 Rottino, Vinny -3 -3 -0.4 -4.6 Rowand, Aaron 25 24 12.6 22.1 Ruiz, Carlos -2 -3 1.5 1.5 Ryan, Mike -4 -4 -1.1 -1.1 Saenz, Olmedo 1 1 0.5 -2.2 Salazar, Jeff -3 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Sanchez, Alex 6 6 1.3 4.0 Sanchez, Freddy 2 2 5.5 3.0 Sandoval, Danny -2 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Schneider, Brian 5 6 9.6 21.7 Schumaker, Skip -3 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Scott, Luke -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Seabol, Scott -3 -3 -0.3 -0.3 Shealy, Ryan 6 5 7.8 8.8 Sledge, Terrmel 0 1 -1.9 -2.8 Smith, Jason -2 -2 0.0 0.0 Snyder, Chris -1 -1 2.7 2.7 Sorensen, Zach -3 -3 -1.0 -1.0 Soriano, Alfonso 23 22 8.7 -5.0 Soto, Geovany -3 -3 0.1 0.1 Spiezio, Scott -3 -3 -2.8 -3.6 Spilborghs, Ryan -3 -3 -0.1 -0.1 Spivey, Junior 9 11 11.2 9.5 Stokes, Jason -2 -2 -0.2 -0.2 Sullivan, Cory 23 23 14.2 18.8 Sweeney, Mark 10 10 7.7 8.6 Taguchi, So 13 12 2.1 3.9 Taveras, Willy 23 22 -8.9 -2.3 Theriot, Ryan -3 -3 -0.6 -0.6 Torrealba, Yorvit 4 5 7.0 7.9 Tracy, Chad 28 26 39.7 35.6 Treanor, Matt -5 -5 -5.8 -5.8 Tucker, Michael -1 -1 -1.1 -3.5 Uggla, Dan 2 4 -6.4 -6.4 Utley, Chase 20 21 30.9 36.5 Valent, Eric -3 -3 -1.3 -1.3 Valentin, Javier 6 6 13.9 15.7 Valentin, Jose -3 -3 0.4 1.2 Victorino, Shane 7 7 3.0 3.0 Vidro, Jose 7 8 12.8 2.7 Vizcaino, Jose -2 -1 -0.3 -0.3 Vizquel, Omar 6 7 1.6 10.9 Walker, Todd 10 9 14.5 4.8 Ward, Daryle -2 -2 -4.0 -4.0 Watson, Brandon 8 8 -11.5 -11.5 Weeks, Rickie 25 24 27.4 18.6 Werth, Jayson 9 9 4.4 4.4 Willingham, Josh 12 13 25.9 25.0 Wilson, Craig 5 5 6.1 3.4 Wilson, Jack 18 18 14.8 30.4 Wilson, Josh -2 -2 1.7 1.7 Wilson, Preston 14 15 13.2 15.0 Winn, Randy 30 29 24.1 34.7 Wise, Dewayne -2 -2 0.5 -5.0 Womack, Tony 10 10 -6.9 -14.9 Woodward, Chris -1 -1 1.7 0.1 Wright, David 39 37 38.6 29.7 Young, Chris 0 0 1.3 1.3 Young, Eric 0 0 0.0 0.0 Young, Walter -3 -3 -0.6 -0.6 Zimmerman, Ryan 13 13 3.1 3.1
Tomorrow we will post and review our AL pitcher projections.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
||||||||||
Daily Fantasy Rx Out of the Frying Pan Article Archives |
Rotohelp |
All content ©2001-18 Rotohelp, Inc. All rights reserved. PO Box 72054 Roselle, IL 60172. Please send your comments, suggestions, and complaints to: admin@rotohelp.com. |
|||||||||||