Today's Fantasy Rx

2005 Major League Rule Five Draft Review

We firmly believe that the Rule 5 draft is a great chance to add depth to your roster by targeting position players from AAA or AA to fill secondary roles, such as backup catcher, utility infielder, and reserve outfielder. Teams also should target pitchers who spent 2005 no lower than high-A, then slot the youngsters in long relief or as lefty specialists. Selecting reasonably high-upside prospects can add even more value to such picks. Given our preference for selecting one backup position player and then two pitchers, one right-hander and one southpaw, if we were drafting, once again we believe few teams took this opportunity seriously this year.

Round One

Kansas City: Fabio Castro, Reliever, CHW; 20, B:L, T:L.
Traded to Texas for Esteban German and cash.
5-5 and 6 Saves on a 75:37 K:BB in 79 IP over 53 G
with 58 H, 7 HR, a .90 G-F, and a 2.28 ERA for A+ Winston-Salem(Car).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: Somehow a couple innings of work in the Dominican Winter league convinced several scouts of Castro's tremendous long-term upside. The 5'8" prospect owns a 2.27 ERA as a professional, however persistent control problems and durability concerns severely limit his upside. Castro also barely appears prepared for the upper minors, forget about the unforgiving environment in Texas. Do not risk rostering him on any fantasy team.

Colorado: Luis E. Gonzalez, Reliever, LAD; 22, B:L, T:L.
Traded to Seattle as a PTBN with Marcos Carvajal for Yorvit Torrealba.
0-1 on a 10:11 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 10 G
with 13 H, 3 HR, a 2.60 G-F, and a 9.31 ERA for AAA Las Vegas(PCL).
7-2 and 7 Saves on a 46:34 K:BB in 61 IP over 41 G
with 35 H, 1 HR, a 1.11 G-F, and a 2.21 ERA for AA Jacksonville(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Lefty specialist.
Fantasy Potential: I understood why the Rockies selected yet another southpaw reliever this year, but I don't understand where Gonzalez fits in Seattle. The Mariners' pen already should contain lefties Eddie Guardado, Matt Thornton, and George Sherrill, plus right-handers J.J. Putz, Julio Mateo, Rafael Soriano, and probably Scott Atchison. Perhaps Gonzalez just will sub for Sherrill if Seattle plans to punt another season, however given his stagnation at Jacksonville over the past two years, Gonzalez appears unlikely to improve the Mariners' odds of returning to the playoffs.

Tampa Bay: Steve Andrade, Reliever, TOR; 27, B:R, T:R.
Traded to San Diego as the PBTN with Dewon Brazelton for Sean Burroughs.
3-2 and 3 Saves on a 71:16 K:BB in 50.1 IP over 35 G
with 23 H, 3 HR, a 1.35 G-F, and a 1.97 ERA for AA New Hampshire(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: A long-time Rotohelp favorite who perennially deserves a chance in the majors, Andrade finally appears set to break camp in a big league bullpen despite barely sniffing AAA over the past few years. With very solid all-around skills and minimal downside, he certainly shouldn't hurt as roster filler and easily could earn a few bucks of profit on a Dollar Days bid in deep leagues.

Pittsburgh: Victor Santos, Swingman, KC; 29, B:R, T:R.
4-13 on an 89:60 K:BB in 142.2 IP over 24 GS(29G)
with 153 H, 20 HR, a 1.11 G-F, and a 4.57 ERA for Milwaukee.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 90%.
Probable Role if Kept: Fifth starter.
Fantasy Potential: The former starter for the Tigers, Rockies, Rangers, and Brewers moves from an NRI with the Royals to a likely rotation slot with the Pirates. Of course, hopefully the emergence of someone like Tom Gorzelanny will push Santos into the bullpen, where he could emulate past successful conversions in Pittsburgh like Salomon Torres, Brian Meadows, and Ryan Vogelsong. I simply don't see Santos succeeding as a starter after his past failures, so only risk a buck in the deepest NL leagues.

Detroit: Chris Booker, Reliever, WAS; 29, B:R, T:R.
Sold to Philadelphia.
8-4 and 20 Saves on a 91:28 K:BB in 65 IP over 59 G
with 45 H, 2 HR, a .45 G-F, and a 2.49 ERA for AAA Louisville(IL).
0-0 on a 2:4 K:BB in 2 IP over 3 G
with 6 H, 2 HR, a 1-5 G-F, and a 31.50 ERA for Cincinnati.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Slipping from the Nationals to the Phillies effectively destroys Booker's best chance of accumulating significant value. I still expect him to emerge as a reliable option in Philadelphia given his lofty strikeout rate, but with questionable control and a poor groundball rate, he just doesn't look like a viable fantasy choice in any league.

San Diego: Seth Etherton, Swingman, KC; 29, B:R, T:R.
1-1 on a 10:5 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS
with 16 H, 4 HR, a .45 G-F, and a 6.62 ERA for Oakland.
7-7 on a 99:30 K:BB in 112.1 IP over 19 GS(20G)
with 93 H, 11 HR, a .46 G-F, and a 2.72 ERA for AAA Sacramento(PCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 40%.
Probable Role if Kept: Spot starter and long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: With Chan Ho Park, Clay Hensley, and Tim Stauffer currently battling for the last two spots in the Padres' rotation, any respectable spring performance from Etherton easily could vault him above the youngsters. Targeting Etherton during Dollar Days could pay off nicely, especially since his strong WHIP minimizes his qualitative downside.

New York Mets: Mitch Wylie, Swingman, SF; 28, B:R, T:R.
3-5 and 2 Saves on a 58:15 K:BB in 66 IP over 9 GS(22G)
with 68 H, 6 HR, a .73 G-F, and a 4.50 ERA for AAA Fresno(PCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 25%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: I suppose Wylie just might stick in a Mets' pen largely filled with inexpensive retreated and rookies, and given his skill set, New York looks like a good for him. He could emerge as a viable roster filler during the summer.

Florida: Dan Uggla, 2B, ARI; 25, B:R, T:R.
148/498 for .297/.378/.502 with 21 HR, 87 RBI, 88 R, 15/23 SB%,
and a 52:103 BB:K for AA Tennessee(SL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve infielder and platoon second baseman.
Fantasy Potential: Although Uggla looks unlikely to emerge from a crowded rookie field to win the Marlins' second base job, his offensive upside, combined with his plate as the only probably starter assured a roster spot, should result in no less than 300 at-bats. Definitely consider Uggla if you need an inexpensive middle infielder late in the draft. Nothing here indicates that his BA will hurt you while he could emerge as a double-digit value.

Minnesota: Jason Pridie, OF, TB; 22, B:L, T:R.
20/94 for .213/.275/.394 with 3 HR, 8 RBI, 15 R, 5/6 SB%,
and an 8:29 BB:K for AA Montgomery(SL).
1/2 for .500/.500/.500 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K for A+ Visalia(Cal).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 55%.
Probable Role if Kept: Reserve outfielder.
Fantasy Potential: Currently set to compete with Jason Tyner and potentially Jason Kubel for a bench job, Pridie possesses sufficient long-term upside to stay with Minnesota all year. A collision with the outfield wall on Opening Day partially wrecked his right knee, costing Pridie most of the season and explaining his otherwise awful performance at the plate. At least departing the Rays clears a path to a starting job for the 2002 second round pick, though given his slow development track to date, only ante for Pridie in the late reserve rounds.

Boston: Jamie Vermilyea, Reliever, TOR; 23, B:R, T:R.
3-0 on a 24:11 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 4 GS(16G)
with 49 H, 6 HR, a 1.67 G-F, and a 5.60 ERA for AAA Syracuse(IL).
3-3 and 1 Save on a 52:16 K:BB in 65.2 IP over 4 GS(27G)
with 67 H, 5 HR, a 2.02 G-F, and a 2.60 ERA for AA New Hampshire(EL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever.
Fantasy Potential: While I love the upside suggested by Vermilyea's skill set, his difficulties at Syracuse suggest a strong likelihood of continued struggles if he breaks camp with the Red Sox. Boston already appears assured of breaking camp with Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin, Guillermo Mota, Rudy Seanez, and Lenny DiNardo in the bullpen. Craig Hansen, Jermaine Van Buren, Manny Delcarmen, Cla Meredith, any excess starters, and any additional veteran relievers remain in competition for no more than two spots. I just don't see Vermilyea cracking that relief corps, virtually insuring he either switches organizations on waivers or heads back to the Jays at the end of camp.

St. Louis: Juan Mateo, Swingman, CHC; 23, B:R, T:R.
10-5 and 2 Saves on a 123:27 K:BB in 109.1 IP over 16 GS(32G)
with 99 H, 9 HR, a .76 G-F, and a 3.21 ERA for A+ Daytona(FSL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Mateo shifted towards the rotation after three seasons as a reliever, though given his impressive dominance this summer, he appears likely to develop into an effective pitcher regardless of his role. He just might hold a passable ERA if kept by the Cardinals next spring, however the reasonable chance that St. Louis will opt for a veteran reliever at any time prevents me from endorsing Mateo as more than in-season roster filler.

Round Two

Florida: Mike Megrew, Starter, LAD; 21, B:L, T:L.
0-2 on a 2:2 K:BB in 4 IP over 2 GS
with 9 H, 1 HR, a .29 G-F, and a 20.25 ERA for A+ Vero Beach(FSL).
0-0 on an 8:4 K:BB in 5 IP over 3 GS
with 4 H, 0 HR, a 1.00 G-F, and a 5.40 ERA for R Dodgers(GCL).
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long reliever.
Fantasy Potential: Megrew spent most of the recovering from 2004 Tommy John surgery, obviously limiting his development time and resulting in his availability here. Of course, he also registered a 3.41 ERA on a 125:43 K:BB in 106 IP over 22 GS for Vero Beach last year, illustrating obvious upside and likely securing Megrew's spot on the Marlins. Consider him an intriguing long-term prospect unworthy of consideration in any spring drafts.

I'll continue tomorrow with the minor league phase of the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams selected a dozen players for the second straight season, remaining at 2001 levels after drafting 20 players in 2003 and 28 the year before. Of the 12 taken in 2003, four remained active with their new teams for the majority of the season, two lost Rule 5 status due to spring training trades, and then Adam Sternremains subject to Rule 5 guidelines. Andy Sisco still looks like the brightest prospect switching teams, although Tyler Johnson and D.J. Houlton also should stay in the majors this summer while Tyrell Godwin and Shane Victorino possess plenty of long-term value.

No one possesses comparable upside to Sisco, Johnson, or the outfielders among this year's picks. Dan Uggla should emerge as the best player in 2006, Pridie, Mateo, and Megrew own the most upside, and then the remaining eight players look like little more than roster filler, especially Santos and Etherton. Gambling on any of these theoretical prospects in your spring draft simply makes little sense.