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August
5th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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'05 AL LPR through 17 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2005 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 3rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
3ACXZ - Roy Halladay(44555)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(14454)
ABC - Matt Clement(34040)
AX - Bartolo Colon(12144)
A - Erik Bedard(55452)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(55435545552)
3ax - Arthur Rhodes(4433443435)
abcxyz - Brian Shouse(4041355224)
ax - Huston Street(2343434345)

A largely uneventful week begins Shouse and Colon supplanting Freddy Garcia and Kevin Millwood while a heavier emphasis on groundballs finally results in Santana's promotion to the top rank. Several solid performances also allow Street up here for the first of what I suspect will be many weeks at this level of excellence.


I hope to post the remainder of this ranking soon.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:@TOR(S.Downs)
Johan Santana: Sat:BOS(D.Wells)
Pedro Martinez: No start
Roy Oswalt: Sat:@SF(N.Lowry)
Roger Clemens: Sun:@SF(B.Tomko)
Ben Sheets: Fri:@PHI(C.Lidle)
Mark Mulder: Fri:ATL(J.Smoltz)
Jake Peavy: Sun:@WAS(E.Loaiza)
Dontrelle Willis: Sun:@CIN(Ra.Ortiz)
A.J. Burnett: No start.
Josh Beckett: No start.
Miguel Batista: 3 Home vs. NYY.

With Sheets and Willis both too risky to run, we'll deploy Santana, Oswalt, Clemens, Mulder, Peavy, and Batista, opting for offense over Randy. Of course, we still lack cap room to activate anyone like Carl Crawford, so he, Buck, Hafner, Iguchi, Atkins, and Holliday all remain benched.

Rotohelp.com(4th lg; 135th overall)
Week 18b: August 5-August 7

 
C	Victor Martinez		860 
C	Joe Mauer		440
1B	Albert Pujols		1930 
1B	Mark Teixeira		1310
2B	Brian Roberts		960
2B	Marcus Giles		950
3B	Melvin Mora		1270 
3B	Troy Glaus		830
SS	Miguel Tejada		1800 
SS	Jose Reyes		850 
OF	Jim Edmonds		1250
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1110
OF	Adam Dunn		1110 
OF	Scott Podsednik		1090 
OF	Kevin Mench		580 
OF	Jeremy Reed		400 
UT	Justin Morneau		680
UT	Chase Utley		480

SP	Johan Santana		1710 
SP	Roy Oswalt		1320
SP	Roger Clemens		1280 
SP	Mark Mulder		1060
SP	Jake Peavy		1030 
SP	Miguel Batista		840  
RP	Brad Lidge		1280
RP	Trevor Hoffman		1270 
RP	Francisco Rodriguez	1250
RP	B.J. Ryan		950 

Total Salary for Week 18b: 	29890


Today's Fantasy Rx: Yesterday Roberto Petagine played in the majors for the first time since 1998, hitting cleanup in a Boston win over Kansas City. Compiling a .327/.452/.635 line with 20 HR, 69 RBI, 54 R, a 0/1 SB%, and a 63:46 BB:K in 266 AB for AAA Pawtucket(IL) finally earned him another chance, and with Boston in need of another power bat, Petagine could emerge as a surprisingly reliable performer. I expect him to contribute more towards successful fantasy teams than the much more heralded Thursday promotion of Seattle's stud pitching prospect Felix Hernandez, who appears a riskier bet in almost every way. Any current roto contender, particularly in single-season leagues, should plan to offer a higher FAAB bid on Petagine than Hernandez.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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