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July
29th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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'05 AL LPR through 16 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2005 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through the end of the first half on July 28th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2ABY - Freddy Garcia(53314)
3ACXZ - Roy Halladay(44555)
3A - Kevin Millwood(23534)
ABC - Matt Clement(34040)
A - Erik Bedard(55452)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4355435545)
3ax - Arthur Rhodes(5314433443)

An excellent week for hitters results in the demotion of a half-dozen top rank stalwarts, including Bartolo Colon and Jeremy Bonderman. With only Matt Clement rejoining this level, few pitchers other than Garcia, Millwood, Rivera, and Rhodes appear to offer the weekly consistency worthy of surrounding significant talent at your AL league's trade deadline.


I hope to post the remainder of this ranking soon.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:LAA(P.Byrd)
Johan Santana: No start
Pedro Martinez: No start
Roy Oswalt: Sun:NYM(K.Ishii)
Roger Clemens: No start
Ben Sheets: Sat:SF(J.Schmidt)
Mark Mulder: Sun:@LAD(Od.Perez)
Jake Peavy: No start
Dontrelle Willis: No start
A.J. Burnett: Sat:WAS(J.Patterson)
Josh Beckett: Fri:WAS(T.Armas)
Miguel Batista: 3 Home vs. TEX

The severe uncertainty surrounding Burnett's start leads us to deploy our other six pitchers.

Getting the suddenly red hot Morneau back in the lineup should help here, especially since we can bench the hurting Glaus. Buck, Hafner, Crawford, and Reed all continue sitting.

Rotohelp.com(6th lg; 148th overall)
Week 17b: July 29-July 31

 
C	Victor Martinez		860 
C	Joe Mauer		440
1B	Albert Pujols		1930 
1B	Mark Teixeira		1310
2B	Brian Roberts		960
2B	Marcus Giles		950
3B	Melvin Mora		1270 
3B	Garrett Atkins		400
SS	Miguel Tejada		1800 
SS	Jose Reyes		850 
OF	Jim Edmonds		1250
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1110
OF	Adam Dunn		1110 
OF	Scott Podsednik		1090 
OF	Matt Holliday		630
OF	Kevin Mench		580 
UT	Tadahito Iguchi		750 
UT	Justin Morneau		680

SP	Randy Johnson		1980
SP	Roy Oswalt		1320 
SP	Ben Sheets		1200
SP	Mark Mulder		1060 
SP	Josh Beckett		820
SP	Miguel Batista		840  
RP	Brad Lidge		1280
RP	Trevor Hoffman		1270 
RP	Francisco Rodriguez	1250
RP	B.J. Ryan		950 

Total Salary for Week 17b: 	29940


Today's Fantasy Rx: Shawn Chacon's move to the Yankees theoretically presents an interesting option for AL-only owners. Despite poor control on the season, he owns a 12:8 K:BB in 21 IP with 23 H and 2 HR this month. Unfortunately, he hasn't pitched well on the road, and moving from Colorado to New York only improves his support from the worst defense in baseball to the fourth-worst defense. Barring a significant overhaul of the Yankees' lineup, I simply can't recommend targeting Chacon in any league where your qualitative stats concern you.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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