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July
12th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2005 Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Roster
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

As rosters are due for this contest at 9pm(CDT) tomorrow evening, today I'll discuss our player selections and corresponding rationale for the final regular season CDM game.


Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball
We decided to alter our normal method for picking pitchers here this year, instead deferring heavily to first half successes with good strikeout rates. With only wins, saves, strikeouts, and innings earning points here, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Chris Carpenter ranked as automatic selections. The Yankees' continued improvement led us to take Randy, Boston's general success provided good cause for Matt Clement, and despite a lack of innins, Jake Peavy's upside merits inclusion here. Lastly, we opted for Dan Haren as a potentially superb bargain given Oakland's surge, and then Dontrelle Willis completes our starting staff despite our severe concerns regarding his normal second-half struggles.

Other solid options include Roy Halladay, dismissed here due to his injury, Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez, Rich Harden, and Ryan Dempster. We discounted A.J. Burnett to his uncertain destination after the trade deadline.

Heading to the bullpen, Chad Cordero looks like perhaps the one automatic choice for every roster. A minimum salary earned a spot for Huston Street, although we opted against Yhency Brazoban due to his recent struggles. The overall upside of Dustin Hermanson and then Francisco Rodriguez earned them the last two spots of our relief corps, although we won't fault anyone who takes Brazoban, Trevor Hoffman, Bob Wickman, B.J. Ryan, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge, or even Todd Jones.


A lack of cost-effective options at a few positions unsurprisingly caused more problems than we experienced while composing our pitching staff.

Few good options appear at catcher outside of the automatic Joe Mauer. We opted for Gregg Zaun as our second starter in the hope that he can maintain his performance to date. Ben Molina edged John Buck and Yadier Molina as our backup, though given the dearth of options here, anyone from Varitek through Posada and Kendall to Victor Martinez seems at least somewhat acceptable.

First base appears opposite catcher on the position depth list. Derrek Lee will appear on almost every roster, and despite Pujols' performance, we believe we can receive much more cost-effective production by deploying Travis Hafner, Mark Teixeira, and David Ortiz on a nearly weekly basis. Justin Morneau's extended slump removes him from serious contention, leaving only the injured Nick Johnson as a respectable rival to our foursome and then Pujols, who only loses a spot here due to our reluctance to carry a fifth 1B when we only can deploy four at a time.

With Brian Roberts and Chase Utley a formidable starting duo, Marcus Giles' unbelievable recent performance allows us to take a trio with a little more upside than the otherwise solid Chone Figgins. Rickie Weeks ranks as the darkhorse sleeper here, though our general aversion to rookies in national games keeps him off our squad.

With Morgan Ensberg and Garrett Atkins strong options at third, the relative similarity between players like Melvin Mora, Troy Glaus, and even David Wright created serious debate here. We settled on Hank Blalock, hoping that Aubrey Huff's pending move to a contender with a deep lineup allows us to dump Blalock before his normal second-half problems begin.

Shortstop creates almost as many problems as catcher since Miguel Tejada, Mike Young, and Derek Jeter all cost a little too much for us to select them given our reduced salary cap. Bobby Crosby's surge earned him one spot, Jose Reyes' overall cost-effectiveness sealed the second, and then after examining several options, Jhonny Peralta emerged as a surprisingly obvious third choice.

Unfortunately, selecting outfielders nearly created more problems than solutions due to the lack of more than a few inexpensive performers not currently slumping. Otherwise automatic picks like Carlos Lee and Grady Sizemore merely earned bench spots until they improve, leaving us with only Hideki Matsui, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, and Jason Bay as overly intriguing starters. Brad Hawpe and Jason Lane will join Lee and Sizemore on our bench as we dismissed potentially interesting options like Bobby Abreu, Jose Guillen, Adam Dunn, Vernon Wells, and Brady Clark.

The upside presented by Scott Podsednik's steals and augmented by his visit to Cleveland this weekend secured Pods out fifth starting job, but our final player only appeared after extended discussion.


Our rationale for selecting Ken Griffey, Jr.: Historically, our selection of Griffey in a national fantasy baseball competition results in Junior hitting the DL within days of joining our team. While his expected injury may cost us both a roster spot and a replacement player purchase, at least now Griffey won't produce cost-effective stats for our competitors.


Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:@BOS(M.Clement)
Pedro Martinez: Sun:ATL(T.Hudson?)
Johan Santana: Sat:LAA(P.Byrd?)
Roger Clemens: Sun:@STL(C.Carpenter)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:@STL(J.Marquis)
Matt Clement: Sat:NYY(R.Johnson)
Dontrelle Willis: Sun:@PHI(V.Padilla)
Jake Peavy: Sat:ARI(C.Vargas)
Chris Carpenter: Sun:HOU(R.Clemens)
Dan Haren: Sun:TEX(C.Young)

With five very obvious picks in Pedro, Santana, Willis, Peavy, and Haren, our last slot goes to Chris Carpenter, the best points' pitcher of the first half, in a relatively safe home start despite facing Clemens.

Offensively, our normal bench will include Ben Molina, Marcus Giles, Jhonny Peralta, Carlos Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Jason Lane. Cap reasons again require activating Garrett Atkins for a weekend in Cincinnati rather than deploying Blalock in Oakland, although we then have room to run Podsednik in Cleveland over Hawpe and the other inexpensive, slumping outfield options.

Rotohelp.com
Week 15b: July 14-July 17

C	Joe Mauer		1140
C	Gregg Zaun		1090
1B	Derrek Lee		3010
1B	Travis Hafner		1870
1B	Brian Roberts		1770
2B	Chase Utley		1050
3B	Morgan Ensberg		1530
3B	Garrett Atkins		1000
SS	Jose Reyes		1590
SS	Bobby Crosby		1480
OF	Hideki Matsui		2820
OF	Miguel Cabrera		2420
OF	Carl Crawford		2120
OF	Scott Podsednik		1990
OF	Jason Bay		1680
OF	Ken Griffey, Jr.		1530
DH	David Ortiz		2890
DH	Mark Teixeira		2820

SP	Pedro Martinez		3140
SP	Johan Santana		3090
SP	Dontrelle Willis		2170
SP	Jake Peavy		2090
SP	Chris Carpenter		2020
SP	Dan Haren		1070
RP	Felix Rodriguez		2360
RP	Dustin Hermanson		2130
RP	Chad Cordero		2000
RP	Huston Street		1000

Total Salary for Week 15b: 	54870


Today's Fantasy Rx: All-Star Game tonight at 7pm(CDT) on Fox.


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