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June
17th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
'05 AL LPR through 11 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2005 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 15th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2BXY - Freddy Garcia(45243)
3ACXZ - Roy Halladay(45554)
AX - Bartolo Colon(43324)
AX - Jeremy Bonderman(34253)
AX - Rich Harden(43440)
A - Erik Bedard(55452)
C.C. Sabathia(34440)
Bruce Chen(24333)

2acxyz - Mike Timlin(2434254444)
3ax - Arthur Rhodes(3450334445)
abcz - Kyle Farnsworth(4355544455)
acxz - David Riske(4223444445)

No one dropped from the top ranking this week while Bonderman and Timlin returned and two somewhat surprising names emerged as strong gambles in any league. Bruce Chen appeared on the cusp of earning this standing for the past month, and with his control, homer rate, and ground-fly rate all under control, he now appears ready to fulfill the promise he demonstrated as a Braves' prospect several teams ago.

However, while we tracked Chen's development over the years, Kyle Farnsworth's return to middle relief excellence occurred rather suddenly. Yes, he always tends to excel in odd-numbered years, but he barely owned half his current 4.1 K:BB since posting a 3.7 K:BB in 2001. He now ranks as the best alternative to Percival in Detroit and a potentially superb keeper anywhere you can nab him at a single-digit salary.


I hope to post the remainder of this ranking soon.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

With no moves jumping out at us for Barmes, he remains on our roster, along with Holliday.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sun:SD(J.Peavy)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:@SEA(R.Franklin)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:@KC(D.Carrasco)
Roger Clemens: Fri:@KC(J.Howell)
Ben Sheets: Sat:@TOR(R.Halladay)
Mark Mulder: Fri:@TB(S.Kazmir)
Jake Peavy: Sun:@MIN(J.Santana)
Dontrelle Willis: Sat:@LAA(J.Lackey)
Josh Beckett: Sun:@LAA(P.Byrd)?
Miguel Batista: 3 Home vs. MIL.

No starts: Randy, Burnett

Pedro, Oswalt, Clemens, Mulder, and Willis rank as automatic plays, and with Beckett questionable due to blisters, Santana seems safe even though he opposes Peavy.

Carl Crawford faces Yadier Molina and therefore shouldn't earn his salary this weekend, allowing us to return Miguel Cabrera to the lineup as we reach the cap exactly. Victor Martinez and Marcus Giles remain on our bench alongside our two injured Rockies.

Rotohelp.com(2nd lg; 95th overall)
Week 11b: June 17-June 19

 
C	Joe Mauer		440
C	John Buck		390
1B	Albert Pujols		1930 
1B	Mark Teixeira		1310
2B	Brian Roberts		960
2B	Tadahito Iguchi		750
3B	Melvin Mora		1270
3B	Troy Glaus		830
SS	Miguel Tejada		1800 
SS	Jose Reyes		850 
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1110
OF	Jim Edmonds		1250
OF	Adam Dunn		1110 
OF	Scott Podsednik		1090 
OF	Kevin Mench		580 
OF	Jeremy Reed		400 
UT	Travis Hafner		810
UT	Justin Morneau		680 

SP	Johan Santana		1710 
SP	Pedro Martinez		1450 
SP	Roy Oswalt		1320 
SP	Roger Clemens		1280 
SP	Mark Mulder		1060
SP	Dontrelle Willis	870 
RP	Brad Lidge		1280
RP	Trevor Hoffman		1270 
RP	Francisco Rodriguez	1250
RP	B.J. Ryan		950 

Total Salary for Week 11b: 	30000


Today's Fantasy Rx: Gagne's return to the DL won't shock many, but with Yhency Brazoban's workload also rising rapidly, savvy owners need to know who stands to gain from any further arm discomfort in the Dodgers' bullpen. With Elmer Dessens removed from contention due to his return to the rotation, only Giovanni Carrara and Duaner Sanchez rank as strong contenders. While the former owns solid all-around skills other than mildly questionable control, Jim Tracy appears most comfortable with Carrera in middle relief. Conversely, Sanchez easily seems capable of assuming a significant late-inning role as only occasional homer problems dim his otherwise dominant performance. Sanchez's 14:1 K:BB in 9.1 IP this month positions him next in line for saves, so if you see him dumped due to his inflated 7.71 June ERA, take advantage of that opportunity to snag a potential closer.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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