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May
13th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
'05 AL LPR through 6 Weeks

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2005 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 11th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
3AX - Kevin Millwood(23444)
AX - Bartolo Colon(44054)
AX - Jeremy Bonderman(53435)
A - Erik Bedard(05545)
X - C.C. Sabathia(55303)

The development of both Millwood and Sabathia suddenly provides the Indians with a surprisingly solid starting corps. Try to add one or both Cleveland starters before they begin accumulating wins at a rate commensurate with their skills.


2
3BCYZ - Curt Schilling(224)
ABCXY - Randy Johnson(34555)
BXY - Freddy Garcia(24333)
Bronson Arroyo(33442)

Now looks like a great time to deal for Arroyo since Boston's pitching injuries mean he should not depart their rotation any time soon.

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3535255455)
3 - Travis Harper(3353402333)
acxyz - Mike Timlin(5234434532)
bcyz - Tom Gordon(4552351525)
aby - Kiko Calero(3445442230)
ay - Trever Miller(4445235323)
Kevin Gregg(24243)

Gregg's inconsistency ranks among the biggest surprises for me this year and moving back into the rotation likely will create even more problems for a pitcher desperately in need of a regular role.


3
ACXZ - Roy Halladay(33534)
CXZ - Kevin Brown(24433)
C - Mike Mussina(24234)
Z - Sidney Ponson(44253)

While Mussina's skills lag slightly behind his recent success, he still appears on track to reemerge as a quality top-of-the-rotation option.

Caxy - Scot Shields(0433540534)
bcy - Jeremy Affeldt(33434)
cyz - Alan Embree(5204332534)
ax - Arthur Rhodes(2434553433)
a - Scott Schoeneweis(4420544450)


A
BCXYZ - Johan Santana(44343)
BC - Matt Clement(50454)
C - Cliff Lee(44214)
X - Mike Maroth(44434)
X - Rich Harden(54344)
X - Jon Garland(44442)
X - Josh Towers(03444)
Barry Zito(22444)
Chan Ho Park(04404)
Gustavo Chacin(45422)
Pedro Astacio(40004)

Strong command continues to fuel Towers' success, giving the Jays three impressive starters even before considering Lilly or Bush. The bad news here is that Astacio simply looks lost, so anyone who heeded my recommendation to grab him a month ago now at least needs to bench him rather than risk further qualitative damage.


B
Ycz - Jake Westbrook(34030)
Y - Carl Pavano(34310)
Nate Robertson(30324)
Bobby Madritsch(0)


C
Z - Joel Pineiro(23243)
Wade Miller(5)
Jose Contreras(00443)

Zy - Juan Cruz(2110535434)
Andrew Good(42)
Eric DuBose


X
Y - Mark Buehrle(44233)
Daniel Cabrera(03345)
Joe Mays(44313)
Ryan Franklin(33033)
Carlos Silva(35332)

Questionable command hides an intriguing surge by Cabrera, who seems set to win plenty of games this year as perhaps the least heralded starter supported by baseball's best offense. Silva's superb control also makes him a solid option in any league.


Y
David Wells(02440)


Z
Tim Wakefield(32341)

abxy - Dustin Hermanson(5432444352)


a
bcxyz - Brian Shouse(5534555453)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(4343445535)
bcxy - B.J. Ryan(5354543534)
bcyz - Octavio Dotel(4242424320)
bxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(5555443544)
bxy - Bob Wickman(5444433333)
bxy - Joe Nathan(3554535434)
bxy - Todd Williams(4355443244)
bxy - Juan Rincon(3544522454)
bxy - Rafael Betancourt(3445442341)
cxz - David Riske(5344544442)
cxz - Matt Mantei(4334355344)
cx - Scott Sauerbeck(4543053543)
xy - Ron Villone(4445532315)
xy - Shingo Takatsu(5043354433)
by - Steve Kline(5440454453)
by - John Halama(4055543422)
b - Mike Myers(4030350454)
b - J.C. Romero(4242544322)
b - J.J. Putz(4442245433)
x - Andy Sisco(5454533344)
x - Jake Woods(3543445253)
x - Justin Duchscherer(5044244353)
x - Keiichi Yabu(4344135451)
x - Neal Cotts(2435340434)
x - Huston Street(4343505253)
Cliff Politte(4355224424)
Jorge Julio(3545454222)

With most of these pitchers likely owned, consider Woods or Yabu when looking for qualitative help in very deep AL leagues.


b
cxyz - Eddie Guardado(4243343335)
cxyz - Brendan Donnelly(1343344253)
cxy - Luis Vizcaino(4334332334)
cyz - Keith Foulke(1314324342)
cz - Jason Grimsley
cz - Chad Bradford
cz - Mike MacDougal(5534134522)
cz - Kyle Farnsworth(1532334524)
y - Bob Howry(3330444032)
y - Matt J. Miller(4324)
y - Carlos Almanzar(113221)
y - Scott Atchison
Doug Brocail(2342444233)
Esteban Yan(3223333232)

Keith Foulke's worrisome stretch continues, but since Boston never will displace him, consider buying low anywhere you need saves.


c
Kelvim Escobar(4344)
Kirk Saarloos(33323)

Only a lack of acceptable AAA alternatives keeps Saarloos in the majors, and with at least a couple of Sacramento's starters demonstrating decent skills, you should move Saarloos before his likely demotion prior to the end of the month.

yz - Danys Baez(5243235425)
x - Jeff Nelson(3341333335)
y - Ugueth Urbina(1534325233)
z - Damaso Marte(3434443220)
z - Paul Quantrill(2141243214)
z - Rafael Soriano
Troy Percival(2123243353)
John Parrish(434443)


x
y - Jason Frasor(3545334352)
z - Mike Stanton(5400354334)
Julio Mateo(3334233453)
Jamie Walker(2534335304)
Shigetoshi Hasegawa(3333433344)
Jesse Crain(3533323443)
Franklyn German(3334233343)


y
Rodrigo Lopez(34020)

Steve Reed(132122235)
Jesus Colome(135403)
Erasmo Ramirez


z
Buddy Groom(24445315)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings


We will continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:@OAK(D.Haren)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:STL(M.Mulder)
Roger Clemens: Sat:SF(B.Tomko)
Mark Mulder: Sat:@NYM(P.Martinez)
Jake Peavy: Sat:FLO(A.Leiter)
Rich Harden: Fri:NYY(M.Mussina)
A.J. Burnett: Sun:@SD(B.Lawrence)
Josh Beckett: Fri:@SD(A.Eaton)
Miguel Batista: 3 Road at CLE.

No starts: Santana, Schmidt, Oswalt, Sheets.

With Pedro and Mulder both scorching hot, as well as a greater need for wins than saves, Randy, Clemens, Peavy, Harden, Burnett, and Beckett will comprise our rotation.

The extra cap room resulting from Pedro sitting allows us to deploy both Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer as John Buck finally hits our bench, joining Marcus Giles, Jose Reyes, Kevin Mench, and Jeremy Reed.

Rotohelp.com(3rd lg; 79th overall)
Week 6b: May 13-May 15

C	Victor Martinez		860
C	Joe Mauer		440 
1B	Albert Pujols		1930 
1B	Justin Morneau		680
2B	Brian Roberts		960 
2B	Tadahito Iguchi		750
3B	Melvin Mora		1270
3B	Troy Glaus		830
SS	Miguel Tejada		1800
SS	Clint Barmes		400 
OF	Carl Crawford		1560
OF	Jim Edmonds		1250 
OF	Adam Dunn		1110
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1110 
OF	Scott Podsednik		1090 
OF	Matt Holliday		630
UT	Mark Teixeira		1310 
UT	Travis Hafner		810

SP	Randy Johnson		1980 
SP	Roger Clemens		1280
SP	Jake Peavy		1030 
SP	Rich Harden		900 
SP	A.J. Burnett		830
SP	Josh Beckett		820
RP	Francisco Rodriguez	1250 
RP	Octavio Dotel		1240
RP	B.J. Ryan		950
RP	Brandon Lyon		750

Total Salary for Week 6b: 	29820


Today's Fantasy Rx: With perhaps the best overall command of any staff in history, Minnesota's pitchers seem particularly unlikely to suffer many disastrous outings. Even the otherwise unimpressive Matt Guerrier and Terry Mulholland offer less downside than comparable options on other teams due to the support provided by their bullpen companions.


Click here to read the previous article.

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