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April
16th
2005
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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'05 NL LPR through 3 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

With only six NL pitchers at more than two starts, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated thus far in 2005 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.


QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the five most recent QA scores for each pitcher.


5 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Brad Lidge, HOU(45445): 1-0 and 3 Saves on a 9:2 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 3 H, 0 H, a 5-5 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Despite the downside of pitching in Houston, Lidge easily ranks as the best closer in the game right now due to his sheer dominance and the increased number of save opportunities afforded the Astros thanks to their losses of Beltran, Kent, and Berkman. Only target him if his owners doesn't recognize the upside here as Lidge should cruise towards 40 saves and 100 K, his overall effectiveness negating any potential WHIP problems he might encounter.


5 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Brandon Lyon, ARI(452444): 0-1 and 4 Saves on a 5:1 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 6 G with 7 H, 1 HR, an 11-8 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. We liked Lyon a lot back with the Red Sox and aren't surprised to see him emerge as a closer over the unimpressive Greg Aquino. While Lyon alone isn't fair recompense for dealing Schilling, he at least provides Arizona with one solid component. Nothing here suggests that he won't remain among the top NL relievers all season, so feel free to acquire him anywhere you see him valued under the $30 he could post.


4 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Chris Reitsma, ATL(35545): 0-0 on a 4:1 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 7-1 G-F, and a 1.80 ERA. I never understood the discussion this spring about the uncertainty in the Braves' bullpen should Kolb falter. Atlanta dealt two solid pitching prospects for Reitsma, and with Juan Cruz gone, he easily ranks as the top set-up man in another overachieving relief corps. Definitely acquire Reitsma anywhere you see him available, especially if you already own Kolb and agree with the naysayers who believe his ground-fly rate won't compensate for his lack of dominance.

Ryan Wagner, CIN(54435): 0-1 on a 5:0 K:BB in 6 IP over 6 G with 5 H, 0 HR, a 9-3 G-F, and a 1.50 ERA. A prime post-hype sleeper, Wagner already looks like one of the top relievers in the game and should emerge as the Reds' closer no later than next spring. If Danny Graves' expiring contract prompts a trade, expect Wagner to net no less than a dozen saves over the last two months of the year. Definitely try to acquire him since Wagner still might remain available even in relatively deep NL leagues after his unimpressive rookie campaign last year.

Roberto Hernandez, NYM(54543): 1-0 on a 7:1 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 5 G with 0 H, 0 HR, a 3-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Although Hernandez looks like the only pitcher discussed here I can't clearly endorse right now, he still seems surprisingly safe. Remember that Hernandez closed effectively for many years despite questionable skills, so with a decent WHIP and ground-fly rate, expect continued qualitative contributions from the extremely unheralded middleman. Target him anywhere you need short-term roster filler and can't find someone with more upside.

Chris Hammond, SD(54344): 1-0 on a 5:1 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 5 G with 2 H, 0 HR, an 11-4 G-F, and a 1.35 ERA. An ideal low-risk, low-upside player, Hammond pitches in baseball's best pitchers' park, so as long as you bench him when San Diego heads to Colorado, he otherwise should provide a couple bucks of qualitative value for a minimum FAAB ante. Feel free to acquire and deploy Hammond whenever you need a better option than a flammable starting pitcher.


4 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Billy Wagner, PHI(4545): 0-0 and 1 Save on a 5:1 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 4-1 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. While I no longer consider Wagner a top closer due to his expanding injury history, troublesome home park, and an expected lack of save opportunities for the Phillies, he also still owns solid skills and should produce strong numbers barring further health problems. Wagner remains a $30 closer easily capable of finishing the season among the most valuable pitchers in baseball, so target him if you need saves and sense an opportunity due to his somewhat slow start.


4 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS
Mike Gonzalez, PIT(554053): 0-0 on a 7:3 K:BB in 5 IP over 6 G with 5 H, 0 HR, a 6-3 G-F, and a 7.20 ERA. Acquire Gonzalez anywhere his early ERA burp causes a foolish owner to cut the southpaw. Gonzalez owns one of the best skill sets in the game and also appears primed to emerge as Pittsburgh's closer if another rebuilding season results in the deadline deal of Jose Mesa. A minimal investment here now could result in a significant rewards down the line, especially in keeper leagues.

Chad Fox, CHC(524434): 0-0 on a 7:3 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 6 G with 5 H, 0 HR, a 3-5 G-F, and a 1.69 ERA. The most troubling factor of Fox's otherwise impressive April is that Dusty Baker doesn't appear to realize that an extensive injury history makes the short reliever a prime candidate for further health problems. Fox continues to pitch every other day while perfectly respectable pitchers like Jon Leicester and Cliff Bartosh see action once or twice a week. Of course, fantasy owners still should acquire Fox, especially since he should see some save opportunities, but keep a backup plan in mind since I expect him to hit the DL within the next few weeks due to extreme overwork.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Reitsma, Wagner, Gonzalez, and Fox rank as only four members of an impressive group of NL set-up men. Akinori Otsuka, Julian Tavarez, Jim Mecir, Ricky Bottalico, Tim Worrell, Matt Herges, and Luis Ayala also all appear likely to see at least a couple of save opportunities this summer while providing helpful qualitative stats. Adding any of these pitchers now, especially in leagues with daily transactions and GS maximums, offers a lot more upside than making a similar move in two months.


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