Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

National League Starting Pitchers with PDV below $4

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Wade Miller		7	0	3.35	1.35	74	44	76	88.2
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	3		4		22.5		22.5

A frayed rotator cuff leaves Miller vulnerable to miss much of the season, but cutting him for no return still ranks as perhaps the worst decision of the off-season. Yes, he missed the entire second half, suffered general skill erosion even when healthy, and departs a prolific offensive team, but leaving Minute Maid for Fenway alone will keep his qualitative stats strong, and Boston possesses a powerful offense. My main concern regarding Miller is the worry that his addition will force Bronson Arroyo to the bullpen, although I expect the Red Sox will make the right decision to demote Tim Wakefield to relief if all six starters ever appear healthy at the same time. Consider Miller a bargain in single digits and a relatively solid pick into the low teens, especially in keeper leagues, due to his $20+ upside.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Andy Pettitte		6	0	3.90	1.23	79	31	71	83
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:L    B:L	3		3		15.4		15.4

Perhaps Pettitte will rebound, but considering he rarely posted great numbers even when healthy in New York, I see little reason to risk a significant investment here. His August elbow surgery still leaves him vulnerable to further problems, especially when supported by the Astros' unimpressive defense, so I simply can't recommend bidding into double digits here. Don't expect Pettitte even to surpass $15 even if avoids injury all year, so the proper decision probably will result in someone else overpaying for the veteran southpaw.

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Noah Lowry		6	0	3.82	1.29	72	28	91	92
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:L    B:L	3		3		18.1		18.1

With an essentially guaranteed rotation slot for a playoff contender now supported by a better lineup and bullpen, Lowry appears positioned as an obvious sleeper in any league. His 4.13 ERA on a 73:28 K:BB in 89.1 IP with 98 H and 9 HR for AAA Fresno(PCL) provided the base necessary for him to maintain solid skills across-the-board in San Francisco. The developing southpaw starter should cruise into double digits this summer before emerging as a likely $20 pitcher as he gains experience. Consider anything shy of $10 here a likely bargain for a potential future star.

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Prior		6	0	4.02	1.35	139	48	112	118.2
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	3		4		20.4		20.4

No pitcher possesses the potential to post more extreme reasonable outcomes in 2005 than Prior, who appears an increasingly significant injury risk despite his Cy Young talent. The erosion in all his skills save his strikeout rate similarly suggests he won't reemerge as a dynamic starting option for the Cubs this year. Prior even may spend this year as the Cubs' fourth starter, yet even that relative lack of pressure won't enable him to rebound quietly due to the publicity machine surrounding the youngster. Given his single-digit downside and the low likelihood that Prior will exceed $20 even if healthy, let another owner risk gamble by bidding above the low teens here.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Randy Wolf		5	0	4.28	1.32	89	36	145	136.2
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:L    B:L	2		3		19		19

Posting the best control of his career enabled Wolf to withstand the expected qualitative deterioration of the move to CB Park. The problem is that elbow and foot problems completely sabotaged his second half, we don't know the condition of Wolf's elbow, and he remains vulnerable to a significant ERA spike due to his home field. With Wolf's decreased dominance also worrying me, I see little reason to risk spending more than a few bucks here given the number of superior options likely available for comparable prices to Wolf.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Hampton		13	0	4.28	1.53	87	65	198	172.1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:L    B:R	2		3		24		24

A very solid 2.01 G-F fortunately limits Hampton's downside since otherwise his awful command would render him unusable in most leagues. While potential improvement in the Braves' defense could result in double-digit value here, depending on a low hit rate as the foundation of a pitcher's fantasy value almost always appears an unnecessary gamble. Of course, Hampton remains an excellent bet for no less than a dozen wins and still could post another excellent season under Leo Mazzone's tutelage, but I see little reason for most owners to risk more than a minimal investment on Hampton given his relative struggles since first signing with Colorado.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luke Hudson		4	0	2.42	1.26	38	25	36	48.1
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	2		2		17.8		17.8

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Zach Day		5	0	3.93	1.39	61	45	117	116.2
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	2		2		21.2		21.2

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Vicente Padilla		7	0	4.53	1.34	82	36	119	115.1
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:S	2		2		12.6		12.6

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kazuhisa Ishii		13	0	4.71	1.47	99	98	155	172
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:L    B:L	2		3		14.9		14.9

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Josh Fogg		11	0	4.64	1.45	82	66	193	178.1
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	2		2		16.9		16.9

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Horacio Ramirez		2	0	2.39	1.34	31	30	51	60.1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:L    B:L	2		1		22.5		22.5

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tomo Ohka		3	0	3.40	1.39	38	20	98	84.2
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	1		1		21		21

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Harang		10	0	4.86	1.43	125	53	177	161
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	1		3		10.9		10.9

'05 NL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Wade Miller and Noah Lowry are the only two pitchers who might cost less than $10 yet might earn significant profit. Tomo Ohka also qualifies as a sleeper, and Mark Prior certainly owns the skills necessary for an excellent rebound, but perhaps only Lowry qualifies as a safe pick in any league.