Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

National League Starting Pitchers with PDV from $4 through $6

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brett Tomko		11	0	4.04	1.34	108	64	196	194
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	6		7		32.9		32.9

Seeing his strikeout rate drop of the sixth straight season didn't prevent Tomko from posting his best ERA since his 1997 rookie year. While his ground-fly rate fell from 1.40 G-F to a 1.08 mark, suggesting we could see a homer rate spike, the drop also should increase his WHIP problems due to the deteriorating Giants' outfield defense. However, Tomko also excelled down the stretch, demonstrating solid skills across-the-board, so even if you can't roster him cheaply on draft day, take advantage of any mid-season slump to grab him by the break.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Woody Williams		11	0	4.18	1.32	131	58	193	189.2
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	P:R    B:R	6		7		28.9		28.9

Moving back to San Diego to enjoy the benefits of pitching in Petco should enable Williams to pitch a couple more years. While two years of nearly across-the-board declining skills and increasing injury questions leave Williams vulnerable to disaster, I suspect he at least will remain a useful fantasy contributor at least through the 2005 season. Consider him a bargain anywhere below the high single digits.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
A.J. Burnett		7	0	3.68	1.17	113	38	102	120
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	6		7		25.7		25.7

Expect nothing less than an echo of Carl Pavano's 2004 season here, albeit with a welcome improvement in dominance. Burnett appears fully recovered from arm surgery, and after a moderately slow start in June, he absolutely excelled down the stretch. He should rank as an excellent buy anywhere short of $15 and might even merit $20 bids in some leagues. Pitching for a new contract in the current marketplace provides him significant incentive to remain healthy and productive, so although gambling on him for a long-term deal is a questionable move, don't be surprised if he receives plenty of Cy Young consideration this summer as he attempts to join Josh Beckett to carry the Marlins back to the playoffs.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kerry Wood		8	0	3.72	1.27	144	51	127	140.1
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	6		7		29.3		29.3

His injury and the Cubs' collapse hid dramatic improvement in Wood's control. The veteran fireballer no longer qualifies as a WHIP risk, and with a career-best 1.20 G-F, he appears capable of posting a nicely balanced skill set that easily could result in a career year. With no reports of further back problems, hope for 200 innings with the expectation that Wood finally will win 15 games as you bid to $20.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Adam Eaton		11	0	4.61	1.28	153	52	204	199.1
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	6		7		19.8		19.8

Considering Eaton turned 27 in November and pitches in perhaps baseball's best pitchers' park, I see little reason not to push double digits here. Yes, his weak ground-fly ratio elevates his homer rate to an uncomfortably high level that limits his qualitative value, but if Eaton ever cuts that homer rate, he could shoot to $20 any summer. You face relatively little downside for about $10 here and could net a 100% profit with any luck.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Trachsel		12	0	4.00	1.41	117	83	203	202.2
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	P:R    B:R	6		6		35.3		35.3

Gradually disintegrating command makes Trachsel a surprising risk after four relatively solid seasons with the Mets. He also appears primed to depart New York as the pitcher with perhaps the least upside on the roster. Bidding more than a few bucks to obtain double-digit wins and passable qualitative stats will remove any likelihood of earning a profit on Trachsel.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dontrelle Willis		10	0	4.02	1.38	139	61	210	197
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	P:L    B:L	5		7		33.8		33.8

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Byrd		8	0	3.94	1.24	79	19	123	114.1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	P:R    B:R	5		5		20.8		20.8

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Eric Milton		14	0	4.75	1.35	161	75	196	201
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:L    B:L	5		7		16.5		16.5

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Kennedy		9	0	3.66	1.42	117	67	163	162.1
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:L    B:R	5		6		35.1		35.1

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jerome Williams		10	0	4.24	1.29	80	44	123	129.1
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	P:R    B:R	5		5		18.6		18.6

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Paul Wilson		11	0	4.36	1.39	117	63	192	183.2
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	4		5		23.8		23.8

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Russ Ortiz		15	0	4.13	1.51	143	112	197	204.2
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:R    B:R	4		6		32.2		32.2

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cory Lidle		12	0	4.90	1.35	126	61	224	211.1
CIN/PHI		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:R    B:R	4		5		13.4		13.4

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Webb		7	0	3.59	1.50	164	119	194	208
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	4		6		46.7		46.7

'05 NL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The four likely sleepers here look like A.J. Burnett, Adam Eaton, Jerome Williams, and Brandon Webb; each pitcher might approach $20 barring injury and Burnett could contend for the Cy. Kerry Wood's developing control similarly could result in a superb season though the comparatively increased attention on the Cubs lessens your chance of inexpensively purchasing him. Dontrelle Willis, Paul Byrd, and Cory Lidle also each rank as potential bargains, although Lidle pitches in an uncomfortably impressive hitters' park and the publicity surrounding Willis still might leave him overvalued in many leagues.