Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

National League Starting Pitchers with Double-digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Randy Johnson		16	0	2.60	0.90	290	44	177	245.2
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 41	P:L    B:R	28		30		85.1		85.1

Randy probably posted the best season on the mound next to Johan Santana despite spending the year on baseball's worst team. Moving to the Yankees will give Johnson better run support, better defense, and a much better home park for pitchers. With no pressing injury concerns, a two-year contract extension securing he remains interested in the game, 145 strikeouts in both halves of 2004, and an excellent chance to return to the Series, Johnson appear perfectly positioned to cruise towards the 18 wins he needs to average for three seasons to reach 300. Feel free to bid to $30 for one of the most dependable starters in history.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ben Sheets		12	0	2.70	0.98	264	32	201	237
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:R    B:R	23		25		79.3		79.3

While October back surgery to repair a herniated disc concerns me, you should see if Sheets appears healthy prior to your draft, and if he throws without difficulty, he again will rank among the top NL starters. Yes, a continually dropping round-fly rate concerns me, but his leap forward in dominance makes him an annual Cy Young contender. Do not let him slip by you for less than $20 in any league.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Schmidt		18	0	3.20	1.08	251	77	165	225
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	20		22		61.3		61.3

Only a rising walk rate kept the Giants' ace from essentially echoing his Cy Young-caliber performance from 2003. He barely missed any time after starting the season a couple weeks late following elbow surgery last winter. With increasing dominance, a rising ground-fly rate, and a new batch of veteran additions keyed to help win a championship for Barry Bonds, Schmidt easily could win 20 games for the first time, making him an excellent bargain if continuing injury concerns keep bidding near $20.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carl Pavano		18	0	3.00	1.17	139	49	212	222.1
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	18		18		66.2		66.2

With developing skills and no significant injury since 2001, Pavano remains a strong bet as he heads to the Yankees. Yes, we have no idea if the New York aura will affect his performance, but considering he allowed only one run in nine post-season innings against the Yankees in the 2003 World Series, I'm not too worried about him adapting to the AL. Improving his ground-fly rate from 1.43 to 1.10 while also maintaining strong skill overall skill rates nicely limits his downside, so while his lack of dominance will keep him from emerging as a star, feel free to bid to $20 since he should cruise to no less than 15 wins and an ERA no higher than 4.00.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roger Clemens		18	0	2.98	1.16	218	79	169	214.1
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 42	P:R    B:R	18		19		64.2		64.2

While his control problems returned and Minute Maid doesn't provide a great pitching environment, Clemens nearly single-handedly carried the Astros to the World Series, winning his seventh Cy Young in the process. The greatest right-handed pitcher since Walter Johnson should finish this season eighth on the career list for wins, and despite the loss of Carlos Beltran, Jeff Kent, and Wade Miller, Houston at least remains in contention for the playoffs, thereby providing Clemens the foundation necessary to continue dominating. Of course, considering he fell short of $20 in 2004 and turns 43 next August, I simply don't see a sufficient reason to invest more than about $15 here. You almost certainly won't roster him at that price, but considering several other NL starters possess more current upside despite costing less, let someone else overpay for the right to own Clemens in his likely final campaign.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carlos Zambrano		16	0	2.75	1.22	188	81	174	209.2
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:R    B:S	17		17		68.9		68.9

My biggest concern here involves Zambrano's tremendous workload considering his young age. The Cubs' quiet ace doesn't turn 24 until June, and with a drop from a 2.28 G-F to a 1.64 mark suggesting a homer rate jump, you probably should sell high on Zambrano in keeper leagues. Conversely, he owns strong all-around skills and faces little pressure thanks to the presence of Wood, Prior, and Maddux, so I also see no reason Zambrano won't remain one of baseball's best starters if he avoids the likely DL trip. Letting him go for anything over the low teens seems the wisest course of action unless your overall roster depth allows you to risk a more significant gamble here.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roy Oswalt		20	0	3.49	1.24	206	62	233	237
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	16		17		56		56

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jake Peavy		15	0	2.27	1.20	173	53	146	166.1
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:R    B:R	15		16		64.4		64.4

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Oliver Perez		12	0	2.98	1.15	239	81	145	196
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:L    B:L	15		17		58.6		58.6

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chris Carpenter		15	0	3.46	1.14	152	38	169	182
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	14		14		43.7		43.7

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Livan Hernandez		11	0	3.60	1.24	186	83	234	255
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	13		14		56.9		56.9

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Greg Maddux		16	0	4.02	1.18	151	33	218	212.2
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	P:R    B:R	13		13		36.5		36.5

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Odalis Perez		7	0	3.25	1.14	128	44	180	196.1
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:L    B:L	12		13		52.2		52.2

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
David Wells		12	0	3.73	1.14	101	20	203	195.2
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 41	P:L    B:L	12		12		40.6		40.6

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jaret Wright		15	0	3.28	1.28	159	70	168	186.1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	12		12		48.9		48.9

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Doug Davis		12	0	3.39	1.31	166	79	192	207.1
MIL Brewers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:L    B:R	10		12		51.8		51.8

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tom Glavine		11	0	3.60	1.29	109	70	204	212.1
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	P:R    B:R	10		10		47.3		47.3

'05 NL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Consider Sheets the safest bet here for the rest of the decade with Peavy close behind as his environment outweighs injury concerns for me. Both Oliver and Odalis Perez also remain excellent bets in any league. While New York likely overpaid for Pavano and Jaret Wright, both pitchers own strong skills and recently clean health histories, making them solid picks relatively early in AL leagues.