Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

American League Starting Pitchers with DV from $-2 through $-3

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

67.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Doug Waechter		5	0	6.01	1.44	36	33	68	70.1
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:R    B:R	-2		-1		-0.4		-0.4

The poor ground-fly rate that concerned me here a year ago exploded into an atrocious 2.6 HR/9 for Waechter. Deterioration of his command similarly leaves little hope for an immediate rebound, however we also can trace most of his 2004 struggles to the middle finger on his pitching hand, which bothered him the entire season due to a blister and then tendonitis. Given his outstanding performance the previous season and Waechter's overall upside, consider ignoring these stats if you see him available cheaply in the endgame. Spending a couple bucks here could pay welcome dividends, although rostering him anywhere you can't reserve Waechter at your leisure conversely looks like a bad move.

68.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Stanford		0	0	0.82	1.55	5	5	12	11
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:L    B:L	-2		-2		7		7

Stanford only started two games before a strained left forearm forced him to the DL, eventually necessitating Tommy John surgery in late July. With the center of Cleveland's strong crop of pitching prospects essentially ready for the majors, Stanford will need to recover quickly and take advantage of any opportunities to prove himself to the Indians this year. He might own the skills necessary to succeed in the majors, but a slow start either will force him to the bullpen or result in at least one chance of scenery before he emerges as a viable fantasy option.

69.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jim Serrano		1	0	4.68	1.44	25	12	35	32.2
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	-2		-2		5.2		5.2

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on Serrano.

70.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kirk Saarloos		2	0	4.44	1.60	10	12	27	24.1
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	-2		-2		4.6		4.6

Swiped from Houston for Chad Harville in April, Saarloos pitched adequately when needed for six starts at the beginning of summer. Unfortunately, a bone spur forced him to the DL instead of Sacramento, and Saarloos barely pitched again last year, even losing his spot on the 40-man roster in October following rumors of pending elbow surgery. The quartet of intriguing young arms Oakland added this winter don't leave much room with the Athletics even for even a healthy Saarloos, so despite the promise he demonstrated as the best pitcher in the minors over the first half of 2002, he doesn't warrant a spot on any fantasy roster at the moment.

71.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Wood		3	0	5.94	1.40	54	28	112	100
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	-2		-1		0.4		0.4

The third and largely unheralded player acquired by the Royals for Carlos Beltran, Wood managed respectable numbers despite his obviously limited dominance. While his 11-3 record and 2.80 ERA on a 66:24 K:BB in 90 IP with 83 H and 8 HR over 15 GS for AAA Sacramento(PCL) indicate that Wood needs no more seasoning, he also doesn't enter the year guaranteed a rotation slot. He even eventually might shift to the bullpen, although given the upside of his good command and ground-fly rate, I expect Kansas City to keep him starting through at least 2006. Definitely consider a late-round gamble here since any drop in Wood's hit and homer rates should lead to a sub-5.00 ERA that accompanies a helpful WHIP.

72.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Cha Seung Baek		2	0	5.52	1.48	20	11	35	31
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	-2		-2		1.7		1.7

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Seattle for my comments on Baek.

73.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Darrell May		9	0	5.61	1.55	120	55	234	186
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:L    B:L	-2		0		8.2		8.2

74.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Colby Lewis		1	0	4.11	1.70	11	13	13	15.1
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	-2		-3		3.5		3.5

75.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
R.A. Dickey		6	1	5.61	1.62	57	33	136	104.1
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	-2		-2		4.7		4.7

76.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Schoeneweis		6	0	5.59	1.58	69	49	129	112.2
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:L    B:L	-3		-1		5.3		5.3

77.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Esteban Loaiza		10	0	5.70	1.57	117	71	217	183
CHW/NYY		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:R    B:R	-3		0		6		6

78.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Scott Kazmir		2	0	5.67	1.62	41	21	33	33.1
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 20	P:L    B:L	-3		-2		1.2		1.2

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Tampa Bay for my comments on Kazmir.

79.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Dawley		0	0	5.40	1.68	8	7	7	8.1
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	P:R    B:R	-3		-3		0.6		0.6

80.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kameron Loe		0	0	5.40	1.80	3	6	6	6.2
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	P:R    B:R	-3		-3		0.5		0.5

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Loe.

81.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Riley		3	0	5.63	1.63	60	44	60	64
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:L    B:L	-3		-2		2.7		2.7

82.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kyle Lohse		9	0	5.34	1.63	111	76	240	194
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	-3		-1		15.2		15.2

'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Gambling more than a couple bucks on any young starter here, including Kazmir, appears foolish given the potential for injury and ineffectiveness. Yes, Kazmir could emerge as a dominant pitcher very quickly, but unless you somehow can roster him under $5, thus insuring he retains significant trade value under any circumstance, you instead should target sleepers like May and Loaiza, who should benefit from moving to friendlier pitchers' parks and certainly could approach double-digit value.