Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

American League Starting Pitchers with PDV from $5 through $9

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Javier Vazquez		14	0	4.91	1.29	150	60	195	198
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	9		10		25.9		25.9

The worst overall skill set posted by Vazquez in several seasons resulted in his brief removal from the rotation and directly led to his inclusion in the Randy Johnson deal. Unfortunately, while we still see significant upside here, moving to Arizona could result in further erosion of his fantasy value. The drop in his ground-fly rate over the last few years could lead to 40 homers in the BOB, and with increasingly questionable command and an awful second half, Vazquez worries us tremendously. Bidding into double digits for him looks like an extremely unnecessary risk right now despite a likely long-term rebound.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carlos Silva		14	0	4.21	1.43	76	35	255	203
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	9		8		44		44

Two particularly worrisome trends could create problems for Silva despite the security afforded by his new two-year deal with the Twins. We expected continued erosion of his dominance upon shifting from Philadelphia's bullpen to Minnesota's rotation, but a 3.4 K/9 is terrible. He also dropped down to a 1.58 G-F as his homer rate spiked. However, Silva also walked fewer batters than in 2003 despite pitching 115 additional innings. Combining excellent control with the capable Twins' defense at least limits his downside, cementing Silva's status as a good value anywhere shy of $10 despite the limited upside indicated by his strikeout rate.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Maroth		11	0	4.31	1.40	108	59	244	217
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:L    B:L	8		9		44.3		44.3

My biggest concern here is that deterioration of Maroth's ground-fly rate suggests his homer rate will rebound upward, likely pushing his ERA back towards 5.00. Of course, his overall success after the break last summer gives him a chance to emerge as more than a serviceable starter, especially given his slowly improving dominance and command. Yet he also appears particularly vulnerable to any swings in defensive support, making Maroth a questionable choice as more than a mid-round gamble for a few bucks.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bartolo Colon		18	0	5.01	1.37	158	71	215	208.1
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	8		10		24.6		24.6

We no longer can consider Colon as more than an innings' eater after his worst performance since debuting in 1997. Both his walk and ground-fly rates deteriorated, ruining any improvement generated from a rebound of his strikeout rate. Of course, considering Colon formerly ranked as an annual Cy Young candidate, we need to pay attention to any signs of improvement, such as his 3.64 second-half ERA, supported by an 82:37 K:BB in 104 IP yet camouflaged by his 6.38 first-half mark. I recommended targeting Colon back in July and now believe he can build on his improvement down the stretch, so consider him a bargain in single digits and a likely asset even in the low teens for teams looking to secure a probable 15-game winner.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Brown		10	0	4.09	1.27	83	35	132	132
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 39	P:R    B:R	8		8		30.6		30.6

I see no way to treat Brown as anything less than an extreme risk between him 40 in March and failing to exceed 132 innings in three of the last four seasons. A career-worst 1.36 G-F and his lowest strikeout rate in a decade similarly suggest further problems for the veteran, especially given his tenuous situation with the Yankees after his implosion in Game Seven of the ALCS allowed the Red Sox to win. However, New York also lacks a viable veteran sixth starter right now, and while I like several of their youngsters like Alex Graman, Chien-Ming Wang, and Julio DePaula, the Yankees rarely trust rookies to contribute. Yes, bidding into double digits here seems unwise, but don't ignore Brown if you can roster him at a mid-round discount.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Mussina		12	0	4.59	1.32	132	40	178	164.2
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	P:R    B:L	8		9		28		28

Missing a couple weeks with elbow soreness kept Mussina under 200 innings for the first time since 1994, yet he dominated after returning, compiling a 2.14 ERA and a 3-1 record on a 41:10 K:BB in 42 IP over six September starts. Holding a fairly consistent skill set similarly suggests that Mussina still could win his elusive twentieth game if the Yankees continue providing him with strong run support. Talk up Mussina's age and injury in the hope of acquiring him at a discount, though if you need to secure a starting pitcher, nothing here prevents from recommending bidding to $20 given the strong possibility of a complete rebound for the veteran ace.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Barry Zito		11	0	4.48	1.39	163	81	216	213
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	P:L    B:L	8		10		39.2		39.2

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Lackey		14	0	4.67	1.39	144	60	215	198.1
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	7		9		31.7		31.7

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeremy Bonderman		11	0	4.89	1.31	168	73	168	184
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	P:R    B:R	7		9		24.5		24.5

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kenny Rogers		18	0	4.76	1.48	126	66	248	211.2
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 39	P:L    B:L	6		8		31.5		31.5

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jon Garland		12	0	4.89	1.38	113	76	223	217
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:R    B:R	6		7		28.8		28.8

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jarrod Washburn		11	0	4.64	1.33	86	40	159	149.1
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:L    B:L	6		7		24.5		24.5

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bobby Madritsch		6	0	3.27	1.22	60	33	74	88
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:L    B:L	6		6		29.3		29.3

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Nate Robertson		12	1	4.90	1.40	155	66	210	196.2
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:L    B:R	6		8		26		26

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Orlando Hernandez		8	0	3.30	1.29	84	36	73	84.2
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	P:R    B:R	6		6		27.9		27.9

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Wakefield		12	0	4.87	1.38	116	63	197	188.1
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	P:R    B:R	6		7		25.5		25.5

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Dave Bush		5	0	3.69	1.23	64	25	95	97.2
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:R    B:R	6		6		27.5		27.5

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roy Halladay		8	0	4.20	1.35	95	39	140	133
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	6		6		29.1		29.1

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Miguel Batista		10	5	4.80	1.52	104	96	206	198.2
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	P:R    B:R	5		6		28.6		28.6

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rob Bell		8	0	4.46	1.32	57	41	121	123
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	5		5		22.9		22.9

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Hendrickson		10	0	4.81	1.40	87	46	211	183.1
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	P:L    B:L	5		5		26.2		26.2

'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although I expect that several of these pitchers could push into double-digit value this season, especially Yankees like Mussina and Brown, the starters with the most upside here play for 2004 also-rans. Roy Halladay easily could rebound into Cy Young contention while Jays' teammate David Bush looks like a sleeper in any AL league. Bobby Madritsch may turn 29 next month but pitched as well as all save a couple of pitchers down the stretch last year, suggesting he could shoot to $20 with decent run support. Lastly, while Jeremy Bonderman's youth leaves him particularly vulnerable to injury, his developing dominance and second-half improvement reinforced our belief that he'll emerge as a true ace later this decade. Take advantage of his questionable qualitative stats to roster Bonderman now before his value skyrockets.