Today's Fantasy Rx

We're slightly changing the order of pitcher reviews this year due to time constraints, presenting three weeks of starting pitchers, first AL starters, then NL starters, and finally upper-level minor league starters, followed by three weeks of relievers in the same order.

Like previous years, we'll use a simple formula to separate starters from relievers to make these reviews easier to use. If a pitcher appeared in the majors and started in half or more of his big league appearances, he's listed as a starter; everyone else will be left in the roto bullpen. We use the same general premise to divide minor leaguers, so if a pitcher's total games started between all minor league levels total at least half of all his appearances, he'll be listed with starter prospects for simplicity. Since most pitchers will shift between starting and relieving at least once, this delineation is intended to simplify grouping of pitchers rather than provide an objective evaluation of their skills. All such comments will remain in the reviews.

Per popular request, I will provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some pitchers.

American League Starting Pitchers with Double-digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider whether a pitcher qualified as a starter in Scoresheet fantasy baseball .

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Johan Santana		20	0	2.61	0.92	265	54	156	228
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:L    B:L	34		35		94.6		94.6

While his deserving Cy Young performance shouldn't surprise us given his strong skills, the dominance suggested by a 10.5 K/9 and 6.2 H/9 provides Santana with an excellent foundation for future growth. Boosting his ground-fly rate to .93 nicely limited his homer rate and combined with his outstanding performance down the stretch to shoot him to the front of 2004 MLB starters. Of course, the publicity rightfully afforded Santana will drive his value skyward, leaving you almost no chance of securing his services with any hope of seeing a profit. You probably should pass on Santana in most leagues, especially since nearly doubling his total innings over the last two years suggests he should miss at least a couple starts this summer due to injury.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Curt Schilling		21	0	3.26	1.06	203	35	206	226.2
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	P:R    B:R	27		27		75.9		75.9

Willingly undergoing experimental surgery to return, start, and succeed in some of the most memorable post-season games in history cements Schilling's status among the gutsiest athletes ever. Only sixteen wins shy of 2000, his six All-Star appearances, three second place Cy Young finishes, and two World Series rings already give him an excellent shot at the Hall of Fame. Of course, fantasy participants likely only care if he'll remain healthy in 2005, and given his past injury problems, I highly doubt he'll exceed 200 innings even if he starts Opening Night against Randy and the Yankees. His all-around solid skills also obscure the gradual degradation of most of his skill ratios, so treat Schilling's 2004 performance as an absolute ceiling for his fantasy value and strongly consider withdrawing from any bidding over $20 even though that caution likely will result in another owner rostering Boston's ace.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Radke		11	0	3.48	1.16	143	26	229	219.2
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	P:R    B:R	19		19		67.4		67.4

Radke unsurprisingly eschewed superior offers from coastal teams to remain as one of the Twins' two aces. Improved defensive support resulted in a lower hit rate that allowed him to post a career-best ERA more than a full point below his 2003 mark. Unfortunately, he also appears unlikely to exceed this performance, and since Radke almost always struggles in April, selecting him on draft day is a bad idea. Instead let him go anywhere past $15 and instead attempt to deal for his underrated consistency after his first few poor outings.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pedro Martinez		16	0	3.90	1.17	227	61	193	217
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	P:R    B:R	18		20		55.4		55.4

Moving to the Mets may disappoint the New England legions but the shift provides Pedro with his best pitching environment since departing Los Angeles over a decade ago. While we can't expect him to exceed 217 IP for the first time since 1998, Pedro also shouldn't approach the career-worst ERA he posted in 2004. The Mets deployed a superior defense to the Red Sox last year and should improve noticeably after adding Carlos Beltran. More importantly, while Pedro no longer qualifies as a dominant stud starter, the expected drop in his homers should force his ERA near his 2.71 career mark. Consider him an excellent buy anywhere under $25 even if he fails to break 200 innings.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jake Westbrook		14	0	3.38	1.25	116	61	208	215.2
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	18		17		68.9		68.9

Seven perfect innings of relief in April earned Westbrook another shot at starting. He never looked back, eventually emerging as one of the best AL starters of 2004. Combining improved command with his excellent 2.74 G-F gives him remarkably little downside, especially on a team with as much potential as the Indians. Westbrook even holds a comfortable middle-of-the-rotation slot after Kevin Millwood and C.C. Sabathia, so I see little reason why he can't echo these stats indefinitely. Bidding to $20 isn't a bad idea considering Cleveland's offense and Westbrook's consistency could result in a surprising 20 win season.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Buehrle		16	0	3.89	1.26	165	51	257	245.1
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	P:L    B:L	18		18		63		63

While the new Chicago focus on speed and defense should cut Buehrle's wins to reduced run support, he also could see the best qualitative marks of his career due following the addition of Scott Podsednik and similar moves intended to cut down hits and errors. Yes, posting an ERA over 5.25 every other month indicates a troubling lack of consistency, but nothing else here can dissuade from recommending him. Buehrle ranks as one of the most quietly effective young starters in the game, and after averaging over 16 wins a year during his first four seasons in Chicago's rotation, he appears able to maintain his effectiveness despite a surprisingly high workload.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Freddy Garcia		13	0	3.81	1.22	184	64	192	210
SEA/CHW		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	16		17		55.8		55.8

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tim Hudson		12	0	3.53	1.26	103	44	194	188.2
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	P:R    B:R	14		14		56.8		56.8

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rodrigo Lopez		14	0	3.59	1.28	121	54	164	170.2
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	13		13		50.2		50.2

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kelvim Escobar		11	0	3.93	1.29	191	76	192	208.1
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	13		15		52.4		52.4

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bronson Arroyo		10	0	4.03	1.22	142	47	171	178.2
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:R    B:R	12		13		42.8		42.8

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mark Mulder		17	0	4.43	1.36	140	83	223	225.2
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	P:L    B:L	11		12		43		43

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ted Lilly		12	0	4.06	1.32	168	89	171	197.1
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:L    B:L	11		13		46.5		46.5

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rich Harden		11	0	3.99	1.33	167	81	171	189.2
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	P:R    B:L	10		12		46.4		46.4

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Zack Greinke		8	0	3.97	1.17	100	26	143	145
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 20	P:R    B:R	10		10		35.7		35.7

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
C.C. Sabathia		11	0	4.12	1.32	139	72	176	188
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	P:L    B:L	10		11		43		43

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jon Lieber		14	0	4.33	1.32	102	18	216	176.2
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	P:R    B:L	10		10		35.7		35.7

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Drese		14	0	4.20	1.40	98	58	233	207.2
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	P:R    B:R	10		10		45.2		45.2

'05 AL Starting Pitcher Week continues tomorrow with more American League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The safest starter to target here looks like Bronson Arroyo given his relatively low profile and $30 upside. Curt Schilling and Freddy Garcia also own superb skills across-the-board yet respectively face injury problems and a poor home park for pitchers. Radke, Westbrook, Escobar, and Harden probably rank as the best sleepers since at least the first three of this quartet frequently appear undervalued. Lastly, Mark Mulder once again possesses the skills necessary to win a Cy Young any given year, and moving to St. Louis even seems to improve his chances, but his persistent health concerns and horrible second-half forces no less than a 30% discount on any projections over $30 based on likely lost innings to injury.