Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Outfielders with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Terrmel Sledge		398	107	.269	15	62	3	45	O
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:L	9		9		6.7		6.7

The Jose Guillen acquisition continues to boggle my mind given Washington's stated commitment to Brad Wilkerson, Nick Johnson, and Endy Chavez, not to mention the respective upsides of Juan Rivera, Ryan Church, and Sledge. While he struggled against southpaws and requiring a platoon partner, Sledge deserves to start after posting a .277/.352/.489 performance against right-handed pitchers, supported by a 4.04 #P/PA, .10 walk rate, .83 contact rate, and a 1.09 G-F. Second-half improvement also suggests he should remain productive even in a reduced role, so definitely target Sledge for a few bucks in NL drafts in the hope of obtaining a bargain who could emerge as excellent trade bait in keeper leagues.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jayson Werth		290	76	.262	16	47	4	56	O
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	8		8		7.3		6.3

My major concern regarding the Dodgers' likely left fielder is his partially torn right elbow ligament that may force him out indefinitely at some point. Of course, Werth also only managed a .246/.320/.446 performance as a regular in the second half last year, so despite the upside suggested by his 4.33 #P/PA and .76 G-F, I can't recommend investing any significant sum in the youngster. He only turns 26 in May, so the best plan here should involve letting another owner overbid into double digits, watch Werth miss at least half the season due to injury, and then grab him cheap in 2006 when he should emerge as a quality $15 player if Los Angeles doesn't acquire a superior option during the intervening year.

39.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Michael Tucker		464	119	.256	13	62	5	77	O
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:L    T:R	7		9		3.8		2.9

Intriguing skill trends depicting developing patience and power potential portend a return to double-digit value, especially if Tucker enters a center field platoon with Marquis Grissom as we expect. Tucker posted an acceptable .260/.360/.420 performance against right-handers, although examining anything other than his monthly splits fails to illuminate his performance. He failed to reach a .230 BA in April, August, and September while compiling only 5 homers and 28 RBI in those months. Yet his average never sunk under a.265 from May through July as he registered 8 homers and 33 RBI, as well as four of his give steals and a significant majority of his runs scored. I still recommend targeting him in the latter rounds of NL drafts due to his strong skills, but regardless of his first-half numbers, you still need to shop Tucker heavily around the All-Star break.

40.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Richard Hidalgo		523	125	.239	25	82	4	67	O
HOU/NYM		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	7		8		-6.1		-7

Moving to Texas thankfully provides Hidalgo with a replacement environment for Houston, intriguing slotting him behind baseball's best offensive infield of Mike Young, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, and Alfonso Soriano. Yes, Hidalgo posted a poor average as his walk and contact rates slipped precipitously, but his patience and ground-fly ratio remained intact, so I see no reason he won't rebound towards at least $20 in value playing for the Rangers. Although exceeding that price presents an unnecessary gamble, a 30/100 season seems conservative given the multiple factors suggesting an impressive fantasy season for Hidalog.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Terrence Long		288	85	.295	3	28	3	31	O
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:L	7		6		2.9		0.2

Long looks perfectly positioned to spend this season in a surprisingly productive platoon with lefty-masher Eli Marrero. While career-worst skills of a 3.62 #P/PA and 1.45 G-F certainly trouble me, leaving Petco for Kauffman should result in a useful power surge. Considering Long also managed an excellent .347/.380/.492 performance after the break, he stands a good chance of returning to double-digit value. He looks like a good buy anywhere much under $10 assuming he enters the season as no worst than a platoon starter for the Royals.

42.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ken Griffey, Jr.		300	76	.253	20	60	1	49	O
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:L	7		7		12.5		15.7

43.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Charles Thomas		236	68	.288	7	31	3	35	O
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:L    T:L	6		6		5.3		5.3

44.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Gonzalez		379	98	.259	17	48	2	69	O
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	B:L    T:R	6		8		16.7		16.7

45.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Michaels		299	82	.274	10	40	2	44	O
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	6		7		4.3		4.3

46.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
So Taguchi		179	52	.291	3	25	6	26	O
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	6		6		1		1.9

47.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Hollandsworth		148	47	.318	8	22	1	28	O
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:L    T:L	6		5		12.3		10

48.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shane Spencer		185	52	.281	4	26	6	21	O
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	6		5		1.5		-1.2

49.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kerry Robinson		92	27	.293	0	5	11	20	O
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:L	6		5		-2		-2

50.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jay Payton		458	119	.260	8	55	2	57	O
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	5		6		-7.9		-6.3

51.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Sweeney		177	47	.266	9	40	1	25	O
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:L	4		4		10.2		9.2

52.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Terrero		229	56	.245	4	14	10	21	O
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	4		3		-6.3		-6.3

53.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Encarnacion		484	114	.236	16	62	5	63	O
LA/FLO		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	4		5		-12.7		-9.4

54.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Roger Cedeno		200	53	.265	3	23	5	22	O
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:S    T:R	3		3		-2.1		-3

55.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dustan Mohr		263	72	.274	7	28	0	52	O
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	3		5		7		6

56.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Macias		194	52	.268	3	22	4	23	O
CH Cubs		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	3		3		-5.3		-4.4

57.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carl Everett		281	73	.260	7	35	1	29	OD
MON/CHW		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:S    T:R	3		3		-4.4		-5.2

58.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ben Grieve		250	65	.260	8	35	0	30	O
MIL/CHC		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:R	2		3		4		2.1

59.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ray Lankford		200	51	.255	6	22	2	36	O
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	B:L    T:L	2		2		1.4		1.4

60.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Lane		136	37	.272	4	19	1	21	O
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:L	2		2		3.9		4.9

61.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dewayne Wise		162	37	.228	6	17	6	24	O
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:L	2		2		-3.5		-3.5

62.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Preston Wilson		202	50	.248	6	29	2	24	O
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	1		2		-4.1		-3.3

63.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ricky Ledee		176	41	.233	7	30	3	25	O
PHI/SF		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:L	1		1		-0.6		1.2

64.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jorge Piedra		91	27	.297	3	10	0	15	O
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:L    T:L	1		1		2.2		2.2

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Piedra.

65.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Karim Garcia		258	59	.229	10	33	3	33	O
NYM/BAL		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:L	1		1		-9.5		-11.7

66.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Austin Kearns		217	50	.230	9	32	2	28	O
CIN Reds		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	1		1		-2.1		1.5

'04 NL Outfielder Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Betting on strong rebounds from Hidalgo, Luis Gonzalez, Preston Wilson, and Kearns is a good idea given their respective fantasy upsides, but the best targets here look like skilled fourth outfielders capable of excelling if awarded a starting job. Sledge, Charles Thomas, and Michaels won't hurt for a few bucks and could develop into excellent bargains and long-term keepers with a little luck. While Jason Lane ranks as the youngster with the most immediate upside here given his nearly guaranteed starting job, pushing into the teens significantly reduces your odds of making much of a profit.