Today's Fantasy Rx

Per popular request, I will continue to provide all of the player information tables for these articles even if I still need to complete comments for some batters.

American League Outfielders with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

41.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Dellucci		331	80	.242	17	61	9	59	O
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:L	9		9		3.6		1.8

Re-signing with Texas on a two-year deal keeps Dellucci as the Rangers' fourth outfielder behind the starting trio of Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, and Richard Hidalgo. Dellucci also looks likely to platoon at DH with Greg Colbrunn after posting a respectable .254/.354/.472 performance against right-handed pitchers. While his career-best marks of a 4.11 #P/PA and .94 G-F similar give him a good skill foundation, an inconsistent contact rate left him with a troublesome batting average considering he played in the best AL park for the BA of left-handed hitters. Dellucci could push into double digits fairly easily, but gambling more than several dollars on him is a poor risk until he proves he still can post the strong BA from his early days with Arizona.

42.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gary Matthews, Jr.		280	77	.275	11	36	5	37	O
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:S    T:R	8		8		9.5		10.5

A .324/.409/.628 performance in 145 AB for AAA Oklahoma(PCL) rightfully propelled Matthews back to the majors in May. His career-best numbers with Texas will keep him in the big leagues indefinitely even if he only enters this season as the Rangers' fifth outfielder following the re-signing of David Dellucci. Of course, both Dellucci and Matthews deserve to start right now more than the surprisingly ineffectual Laynce Nix. While Matthews lacks Dellucci's upside, his five-category contribution makes him an excellent late-round target as your fifth outfielder. He even could emerge as a starter for a few months if the Texas outfield corps suffers another round of health problems, making Matthews a superb Dollar Days' grab.

43.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gabe Kapler		290	79	.272	6	33	5	51	O
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	6		7		-4.2		-4.2

With a World Series ring secured and no big league starting job beckoning, Kapler wisely headed to Japan, signing a one-year deal in November with Yomiuri. Given his respectable plate discipline and latent power potential, moving overseas for a season seems the best way to reestablish his offensive production. Expect Kapler to return to the States in 2006, and a good spring training for a team with unimpressive outfielders could result in a starting job and potential $20 season if he performs as I expect in 2005.

44.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Magglio Ordonez		202	59	.292	9	37	0	32	O
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	6		6		6.9		6.9

Perhaps no one knows Ordonez's health status right now. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee at the beginning of June to fix his ailing calf, returned to post a .577 OPS in 35 at-bats over three weeks in July, and then left the team for the season due to additional knee problems. Refusing Chicago's offered $75/5 extension ranks as a worse choice than Nomar's disdain for a similar deal a year ago, however Ordonez at least appears set to accept a somewhat comparable package from Detroit. He looks like a great fit with the Tigers even if the move trashes much of his fantasy value. Expect his homers to drop by no less than a quarter of his usual total and a lower BA simply due to the change in ballparks; leaving Chicago's formerly loaded lineup will cut his RBI and Runs. I see no reason not to target Ordonez if he plays in spring training games without suffering any knee pain before your draft, but if you hear about further problems or other owners' speculation drives his price towards $30, let someone else take the risk.

45.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kenny Lofton		276	76	.275	3	18	7	51	O
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	B:L    T:L	6		7		2		5.7

Despite Marlon Byrd's struggles, both he and Jason Michaels offer much more upside to the Phillies than the aging Lofton. However, while Lofton obviously proved a bad fit on the Yankees, I don't envision a recurrence of his hamstring problems and he still owns excellent plate discipline. Leading off ahead of Jimmy Rollins and Bobby Abreu also should lead to 100 runs, so if Lofton's BA rises in CB Park, approaching $30 one more time isn't unreasonable, although hedging your bets in the teens is the only way to guarantee at least a small profit.

46.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bobby Higginson		448	110	.246	12	64	5	63	O
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:R	6		7		0.1		-2.5

One of the worst contracts in the majors finally expires in the fall. Although Higginson at least managed a .353 OBP last year on the strength of a 3.91 #P/PA and .16 walk rate, he failed to generate any decent power despite a .81 G-F. Nothing in his stats gives us hope for any notable rebound, so expect another unimpressive single-digit season from Higginson before he heads into NRI land. A smart team might just release him and let prospects like Craig Monroe, Byron Gettis, and Nook Logan share the other OF/DH spot alongside Rondell White, Alex Sanchez, and Dmitri Young.

47.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ruben Sierra		307	75	.244	17	65	1	40	OD
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	B:S    T:R	6		6		0.9		-3.4

Remaining on the stunning weak New York bench again positions Sierra to receive any playing time lost to injury by the starting 1B/DH/OF group. Although he probably shouldn't face southpaws and can't seem to perform at Yankee Stadium, Sierra at least still owns good power potential and won't hurt you when needed as roster filler.

48.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Trot Nixon		149	47	.315	6	23	0	24	O
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:L	5		5		10.5		9.4

With a long-term contract essentially insuring Nixon two more years in the Boston outfield, expect a strong rebound if he recovers from his quad problems as expected. I blame his mild skill drops last year to his inactivity and expect him to flourish this season, likely even remaining above .300 if he platoons with Jay Payton. Nixon owns excellent power potential and still seems capable of hitting 30 home runs, making him a good target anywhere short of $20.

49.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Frank Catalanotto		249	73	.293	1	26	1	27	OD
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:R	5		5		1.6		-1.8

The combination of Catalanotto's two-year contract extension and the acquisition of Shea Hillenbrand will keep Gabe Gross in the minors, but considering Catalanotto's injury history, even the reduced playing time of a platoon with Reed Johnson shouldn't keep him healthy. If groin problems or another injury don't destroy his season, Catalanotto should return to .300 and see his quantitative numbers improve, particularly his homers. Unfortunately, the only way to guarantee a profit here is to stop bidding no higher than $9, which shouldn't' secure his services in most standard leagues.

50.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nook Logan		133	37	.278	0	10	8	12	O
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:S    T:R	4		4		-0.9		-0.9

Although the switch-hitting speedster only managed a .265/.305/.356 performance and a 23:96 BB:K in 430 AB for AAA Toledo(IL), Logan's 39/49 SB% gives him tremendous roto potential. He never will contribute much power and even will struggle to hold a decent average, but if given the opportunity, he at least could post similar stats to Alex Sanchez for a fraction of the price. Definitely consider Logan for a minor league pick since he should open the year in the minors, but an unexpected Opening Day roster spot conversely could offer more opportunity for fantasy profit if you can nab him for a couple bucks in the endgame

51.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeremy Reed		58	23	.397	0	5	3	11	O
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:L    T:L	4		3		6.4		6.4

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Seattle for my comments on Reed.

52.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Laynce Nix		371	92	.248	14	46	1	58	O
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:L    T:L	4		5		-2.9		-2.1

While a sprained shoulder limited his playing time, Nix still effectively collapsed after an unbelievable .365/.397/.714 performance in April. A .06 walk rate and .70 contact rate obscured his 3.89 #P/PA and 1.26 G-F, which at least give him intriguing long-term potential. The problem is that he hasn't cracked a .300 OBP in 555 big league at-bats spent largely in one of the best hitters' parks in the game. Spending a few dollars on his upside isn't a bad move, but bidding into double digits for someone with Nix's shaky skill set will leave you little chance of seeing a profit here.

53.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Matos		330	74	.224	6	28	12	36	O
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:R    T:R	3		4		-16.7		-14.5

Matos could emerge as an impressive offensive force if he ever fixes his reverse platoon split. He already owns solid power potential and speed skills, along with decent plate discipline. August surgery on a fractured shin kept him from rebounding in the second half, but after turning 26 in October, Matos appears positioned for a second strong season. Bidding into double digits on him is a decent idea given his 20-20 upside and intriguing long-term upside.

54.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marcus Thames		165	42	.255	10	33	0	24	O
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	3		3		4.3		2.4

Compiling an outstanding .329/.410/.735 performance with a 33:40 BB:K in only 234 AB for AAA Toledo(IL) finally translated into big league success for Thames. He managed a .256/.332/.512 line in sporadic playing time following a June promotion. Both his 4.16 #P/PA and .70 G-F indicate significant upside, and considering Detroit kept him on the 40-man roster, Thames could steal playing time from Bobby Higginson. Anyone with these skills deserves a full-time job, however since he at least won't hurt you in a limited role, try to grab Thames for a couple bucks in the endgame and you even might net a top keeper for 2006.

55.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jay Gibbons		346	85	.246	10	47	1	36	O
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:L	3		3		-7.1		-13.2

A slow start followed by back and hip problems largely destroyed Gibbons' season. While Baltimore wisely tendered him a contract, Gibbons only has perhaps one more season to emerge as a potent offensive threat before Val Majewski needs a starting job with the Orioles. Despite solid skills, contact problems limit Gibbons' value, which makes him more likely to depart the team than Larry Bigbie or Luis Matos. Only teams looking for short-term profit should risk bidding into the low double digits here even if Gibbons appears in the Opening Day lineup as expected.

56.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Quinton McCracken		176	48	.273	2	13	3	26	O
SEA/ARI		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:S    T:R	3		3		-2.9		-2.9

Remaining in Arizona on a minor league deal should result in another year on the Snakes' bench given their newfound preference for veterans everywhere. The problem is that McCracken no longer owns much speed and never possesses much power potential. With his limited upside and inconsistent batting average, you can't trust him as anything more than short-term roster filler even if Arizona limits his exposure to left-handed pitchers.

57.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Raines, Jr.		94	24	.255	0	5	7	14	O
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:S    T:R	2		2		-4.4		-4.4

Nothing here suggests Raines belongs in the majors after a weak .261/.313/.330 performance with an 18:69 BB:K and a 20/27 SB% in 264 AB for AAA Ottawa(IL). Yes, Raines owns strong speed skills and only needs a big league roster spot to approach double-digit value, but I don't expect him to see more than another season of sporadic time in the majors. Don't employ him as anything more than roster filler unless you at least see improvement in his contact rate or plate discipline

58.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Timo Perez		293	72	.246	5	40	3	38	O
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:L    T:L	2		3		-11.5		-10

Perez somehow remains with the White Sox even after slipping to a career-worst .285 OBP and offering nothing save decent defense. He enters spring training as Chicago's sixth outfielder, and if Frank Thomas appears healthy, Perez easily could head back to the minors. With negligible fantasy potential and a detrimental batting average, Perez doesn't belong on any fantasy team.

59.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Gonzalez		127	35	.276	5	17	0	17	O
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	2		2		1.1		-1.5

My biggest concern here is that Cleveland can't protect Gonzalez at DH since Travis Hafner and Ben Broussard both belong in the lineup every day. We simply can't count on him to remain healthy for more than 250 at-bats due to continued back problems, slightly more than his three-year average since departing the Indians. Gonzalez still owns strong skills and intriguing power potential, but with Grady Sizemore probably equally deserving of a starting job, the potential Hall of Famer shouldn't remain with the Indians past the trade deadline. As bidding much into double digits significantly reduces the odds of earning a profit, you should risk losing his 30/100 upside before overpaying for a chronically unhealthy player.

60.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hiram Bocachica		90	22	.244	3	6	5	9	O
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	2		1		-1.5		-1.5

A strong overall performance, including a .285/.390/.547 line in 137 AB for AAA Tacoma(PCL), apparently caught the eye of the Athletics' front office, who signed Bocachica to a minor league deal. The journeyman owns good speed, plate discipline, and even developing power potential, however I simply don't see room for him on the Oakland roster. As Bocachica easily could spend the year in the minors, don't draft him anywhere.

61.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joey Gathright		52	13	.250	0	1	6	11	O
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:L    T:R	2		1		-2.9		-2.9

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Tampa Bay for my comments on Gathright.

62.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dee Brown		195	49	.251	4	24	2	19	O
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	2		2		-7		-7.7

The Royals finally let Brown depart after nine unproductive years in the organization. Declining skills across-the-board and an inability to translate his strong minor league numbers into big league performance led the decision. However, since Brown desperately appeared to need a chance of scenery, hopefully moving to Tampa will provide him with that fresh start. I still don't expect him to contribute to many fantasy teams considering I see no less than seven superior outfield options on the Rays, but if somehow earns regular playing time and begins posting decent stats, you certainly should feel free to take a mid-season flyer on Brown.

63.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Grady Sizemore		138	34	.246	4	24	2	15	O
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	B:L    T:L	2		1		-0.5		-0.5

With a 4.25 #P/PA, 1.24 G-F, and a .280/.352/.516 performance against right-handed batters, Sizemore appears essentially ready for the majors. Of course, the Juan Gonzalez signing likely forces Sizemore back to AAA Buffalo(IL), where he compiled a perfectly solid albeit not outstanding .287/.360/.438 line with a 42:72 BB:K and a 25/35 SB% last year. Delaying his arbitration and free agent clocks by another few months could pay significant dividends down the line, so while Sizemore's demotion will irritate his owners and cause some of you to lose an otherwise excellent keeper, he now appears even more likely to succeed after returning to Cleveland. Expect general improvement in 2005, easy double-digit value in a full-time job next year, and a long strong of $20+ seasons beginning in 2007 as Sizemore develops in comparable fashion to Justin Morneau.

64.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Kubel		60	18	.300	2	7	1	10	O
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 22	B:L    T:R	1		1		1.6		1.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Minnesota for my comments on Kubel.

65.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave Berg		154	39	.253	3	23	0	13	O
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	1		0		-6.9		-7.6

Without even an NRI after the worst year of his big league career, Berg still should land somewhere during spring training. His position flexibility, decent plate discipline, and respectable power potential simply gives him too much overall value to most teams to keep from anything worse than a AAA slot. While I don't envision him contributing to fantasy teams again, he at least might not hurt you as roster filler depending on where he spends this season.

'04 AL Outfielder Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Several players discussed above appear positioned to double their value at worst, a list led by Magglio Ordonez. Kenny Lofton, Trot Nixon, Frank Catalanotto, Luis Matos, Jay Gibbons, and Juan Gonzalez all look likely to surge in fantasy value this year. While Jeremy Reed and Joey Gathright offer the most upside here, and Nook Logan also should displace Alex Sanchez sometime this year, keying on sleepers like Nixon, Matos, and even Gonzalez probably offers the best chance for dramatic profit due to the increasingly low profiles of the injured veterans.