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January 24th 2005 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko American League Outfielders with Double-digit Positive Draft Value
Quick Key to the tables: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.
Setting the single-season hit record resulted in $31 of BA value alone in standard leagues. The only other two position players who earned within $10 of that total in any category were Scott Podsednik and Carl Crawford, who each earned around $30 in steals. Considering Ichiro added $16 worth of steals in addition to his dominant BA performance, he quite comfortably lapped the field in overall roto value. The only downside here is that the odds of him setting another hit record look miniscule. I don't envision him exceeding a .350 average this year, and with a career-best 3.51 #P/PA merely balancing the effects of a career-worst 3.29 G-F, we also shouldn't see growth in homers or steals. Expecting Ichiro to lose perhaps a third of his value isn't a bad idea, which still makes bidding towards $40 to secure the best BA/SB anchor in baseball a viable strategy in most leagues.
While Crawford boosted his OPS by over a hundred points last year, I still expect to witness a breakout season this summer from the future superstar. He posted career-best skills of a 3.49 #P/PA, .06 walk rate, .87 contact rate, and a 1.45 G-F. With no platoon split, second-half improvement, and perhaps the best pure speed of any MLB starter, Crawford looks like the next dominant force in roto. I see little reason he won't keep his fantasy value among the top dozen players for the rest of the decade, even potentially breaking $50 a couple times. Even if you already own Ichiro, stop bidding shy of $40 at your own risk.
The deserving 2004 AL Most Valuable Player didn't even post the best season of his surprisingly short career. However, Vlad also largely ignored a few minor injuries to excel down the stretch, obliterating the opposition for a .371/.431/.733 performance that dethroned Oakland in the AL West. While some deterioration in his plate discipline concerns me, he also posted a career-best 1.05 G-F, suggesting that he still should hit 50 homers some day. With no obvious flaw anywhere in his skill set, Vlad is a solid centerpiece for any team around $40.
Beltran almost will certainly disappoint New York fans expecting the next Mickey Mantle. While I view his contact as a solid investment for the franchise, the Mets should hope for production rivaling the numbers Bernie Williams produced in his prime, combined with some of the best speed skills in MLB history. Career-best marks of a 3.99 #P/PA and .84 G-F suggest Beltran should approach 40-40 on annual basis. Enjoying decent luck also will keep him near a .300 average, so other than a short-term mild downturn due to the downside of playing in Shea, Beltran remains an excellent buy towards $40 with a good chance of pushing $50 at least once during this decade.
As Damon's skills didn't support the shift of nearly a dozen steals into his home run column, expect a relative power outage from Samson this season. The good news is that he still owns excellent plate discipline and could post a similar BA if he faces fewer southpaws this year as I expect. Conversely, my biggest concern is that Damon's pending free agency might result in a distraction at least proportionally comparable to last summer's Nomar situation. If Boston locks down Damon by draft day, bids around $25 will look much less risky than a similar investment in a player likely to decrease in value after a career year. Any downturn will allow the Red Sox to ignore his vital role in winning last year, perhaps resulting in a mid-season move for a superior long-term option like Jeremy Reed, Jason Lane, or even Jason Kubel.
Manny's unexpected carefree attitude to last season following his near-move to Texas removed a formerly prominent distraction from the clubhouse. Despite some concerns regarding the possibility for a recurrence of problems after all of Boston's off-season restructuring, the bigger problem here is his second-half collapse. Ramirez only managed a .264/.345/.528 performance after the break, however even that unexpected slump appears largely due to a two-week disaster prior to the trade deadline. He otherwise held an approximately .280/.360/.575 in August and September, and more importantly, maintained his quantitative output. Yes, Ramirez suffered some skill degradation on the year, specifically watching his contact rate fall from .83 to .75, but the .83 appears further away from his recent rates than the lower mark. Ramirez should slump in 2005, perhaps even slipping under $30 unless BA unexpectedly rebounds, yet he still remains one of the safest sluggers to roster in roto.
I consider the Carlos Lee trade perhaps the single silliest move of the off-season. While some deterioration of his plate discipline worries me, dropping his ground-fly back down to .68 gives him 40 homer potential. Dumping the best offensive player on the White Sox for an out machine like Scott Podsednik could cripple Chicago's offense. Unfortunately, departing the Cell places Lee into worse hitting environment in almost every respect. He looks like a fantastic fit between Lyle Overbay and Geoff Jenkins in the Brewers' cleanup slot, but unless he rediscovers his patience from 2002, Lee won't post the true breakout season I expected to see in each of the last two years. Bidding over $30 leaves you little chance of seeing much profit.
Almost nothing in Rowand's skills suggested he would explode into a borderline MVP candidate; I barely expected him to hold a starting job last year. However, he did post a .370/.388/.609 in 46 AB after the break in 2003, turned 27 last August, and entered the season with most of three years spent in the majors. The SB output also isn't a shock given his demonstrated speed skills in the lower minors and Ozzie Guillen's desire to run regularly. Although a falling contact rate will drop his batting average towards his .290 career mark and his plate discipline still concerns me, Rowand should remain rather productive considering his ground-fly rate improved for the third straight season, reaching down to 1.33 G-F. A new three-year deal and likely middle-of-the-order lineup slot similarly give him a chance to approach a .300/10/100 season, making him an acceptable target anywhere around $20.
Taking advantage of unexpected early playing time, Ford's .307/.374/.466 first-half performance merited an All-Star berth. He demonstrated solid plate discipline, excellent speed skills, and respectable power potential. Of course, Ford is barely a year younger than Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones, and the return of all three starting Twins' outfielders could cost Ford at-bats. His 1.64 G-F also suggests he may not exceed a 20 homers any time soon, but since he appears able to a hold an average near .300 while contributing a 20/20 season, few owners should realize he easily could approach $30 again in 2005.
Despite shoulder problems that finally required surgery in December, Sheffield posted one of the best offensive seasons of the year in his return to the American League after more than a decade in the Senior Circuit. Of course, he only truly excelled during the summer months, failing even to post an .800 OPS in April, May, and September. While he compiled good skills, his speed disappeared and an abrupt drop in his contact rate leaves him unlikely to see a .300 average again. Sheffield's high profile and the significant MVP consideration he received likely inflate his perceived value over his probable fantasy value in most leagues. Yes, he owns excellent power potential, but without a good chance of a high average or even a half-dozen steals, he doesn't merit bids much over $25.
Winn quietly remains one of the most consistent fantasy performers in the game, earning around $25 in each of the last three seasons. The biggest problem is that even a contact rate jump won't compensate for general erosion of his plate discipline, power potential, and speed skills. Don't be surprised if Seattle finds him a platoon partner or just moves him altogether to create playing time for Bucky Jacobsen. At least Winn still seems likely to start no matter where he plays this year, but with no positive skill trends other than a slightly increased chance to hit .300, bidding much over $20 looks like an obvious risk.
Although a poor spring showing nearly landed him in the minors, Crisp rebounded nicely, posting a solid .318/.368/.472 performance in the second half that secured him a starting job and the leadoff slot for the Indians. Unfortunately, no obvious skill growth fueled his surge. Only a bump from a 3.44 #P/PA to a 3.72 mark impressed me at all as his contact rate, speed skills, and power potential all declined. He barely belongs in the lineup against right-handed pitchers, and with an impressive crop of young outfielders nearing the majors, Crisp needs another strong season this year to remain in Cleveland's long-term plans. While he enters his third full season as a big leaguer after just turning 25 in November, providing him a strong base for a value jump, nothing in his skills suggests Crisp should exceed $25 right now, and he easily could slip towards $15.
Kotsay's season ranks as a career year, but his skill development suggests we could see a power surge in 2005. He dropped his ground-fly ratio from 1.50 to a career-best .90 mark while jumping his contact rate from .83 to .88. With closing splits, a second-half surge, and excellent marks in the Coliseum, Kotsay appears positioned to bump his value towards $30. He at least will hold a .300 BA while reaching 20 homers and 70 RBI for the first time.
Fixing his ground-fly rate resulted in a sophomore surge for Godzilla. Matsui dropped his ground-fly rate from 2.17 to 1.09 G-F and nearly doubled his homer total. Improvements in his patience and walk rate also pumped his OBP to .390, which provided the Yankees with the offensive output they expected from him in 2003. While he still struggles against southpaws to a great extent, his .314/.405/.572 performance against right-handers makes Matsui one of the more reliable power sources among AL outfielders. Consider him a bargain anywhere under $25.
Moving from Cleveland to Pittsburgh a better hitting environment and no challenge to his starting job from top prospects as the best young Pirates' outfielders only reached AA last year. My concern is that much of Lawton's value derives from his career-high at-bat total, and despite his apparent health, I don't trust him to exceed 500 at-bats by any significant amount. He also imploded in July and August, holding a mere.221 BA in both months while not breaking a .700 OPS. Lawton might register a second consecutive 20-20 year, but he could slip to a 12-12 season without truly surprising me. Don't gamble more than $20 on him until he posts another solid season.
While Guillen unsurprisingly lost his feud with Mike Scioscia, leaving first the Angels' roster and then the organization, he also managed a nice follow-up to his career-year in 2003. Yes, Anaheim snagged an excellent return for Guillen in Maicer Izturis and Juan Rivera, who might match Guillen's performance if given the opportunity, but Guillen owns solid power potential and looks like a good fit between Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson. Boosting his contact rate from .80 to a .84 mark gives him a good chance to moving back over .300 despite moving to a tougher environment for hitters, so although I can't recommend pushing over this value for Guillen until we see how RFK plays, he certainly isn't a bad target around $20.
Hamstring problems cost Hunter much of April while various minor maladies limited his playing time during the summer, but he still posted the second-best overall season of his career. Of course, the return of Hunter's speed skills simply makes him an overly volatile fantasy player, capable of producing anywhere between $15 and nearly $30. Although general erosion of his contact rate and power potential could keep him under $20 in 2005, Hunter looks like a solid pick anywhere in the teens due the decent chance he'll post another 20-20 season.
An awful performance by Bobby Kielty reopened the left field job, providing Byrnes the opportunity to prove that his first-half performance in 2003 wasn't a fluke. While his plate disciple dropped, he stole 17 bases in 18 attempts while dropping his ground-fly down to a .69 mark, giving him 30-homer upside in a better hitters' environment. Repeated trade speculation could lead to a move of Byrnes to the Mets or Diamondbacks at any time, however if he stays in Oakland, his fantasy value could plummet. Charles Thomas appears positioned to enjoy the favorable side of a platoon with Byrnes, so although he isn't a bad choice around $10, even just pushing into the teens doesn't offer sufficient reward for taking that gamble.
Busting his ACL in October while playing backyard baseball should prevent Baldelli from playing until the All-Star break. While he could return earlier, Tampa won't rush him considering they'll still deploy an outfield of Carl Crawford, Jose Cruz, and Danny Bautista, supported by Joey Gathright and Jonny Gomes. At least Baldelli posted minor gains across-the-board despite missing time with quad problems, highlighted by a contact rate increase from .80 to .83, and given his age and development, he still possesses significant long-term upside. The biggest problem is that his injury necessitates at least one and possibly two years of consolidation before we should expect a true breakout, leaving as no more than a single-digit gamble even if you plan to use Baldelli as mid-season trade bait to a rebuilding team.
Detroit somewhat unexpectedly tendered Sanchez a contract even though Nook Logan could produce comparable numbers and Curtis Granderson appears nearly ready to assume the starting job. Injuries simply ruined Sanchez's season as groin, hamstring, and quad problems left him with a fraction of his 2003 SB output. However, Sanchez somehow managed a .322 BA and correlative career-best .721 OPS, but a nearly across-the-board skill decrease suggest he soon should implode. While Sanchez's SB upside makes him an attractive gamble anywhere in the teens, hope that another owner will push towards $30 here and instead pay the higher cost for the significantly less risky Ichiro or Crawford.
Newhan's rise to prominence might rank as the single most surprising development of the 2004 season. He only owned decent minor league skills, but after leaving Texas in June following a .328/.387/.557 performance for AAA Oklahoma(PCL), Newhan landed in Baltimore and effectively echoed his AAA stats. An .442/.510/.814 obliteration of AL pitching in 43 June at-bats only slipped to a .333/.377/.438 July line in more than double the playing time. He covered all four corners and DH, remaining in the lineup nearly everyday even as his production decreased. Unfortunately, Newhan ended the year with decreasing offensive value and unimpressive overall skills, leaving me little reason to recommend him as more than a late-round flyer due to his limited current position flexibility. I see no basis for believing that he'll post averages much better than his .278/.326/.392 second-half performance.
Calf problems cost Wells a month on the DL at the beginning of summer and continued to plague him down the stretch. Losing Carlos Delgado from an increasingly unimpressive Jays' lineup also concerns me, especially since Toronto only replaced the slugger with Corey Koskie and Shea Hillenbrand, who won't provide Wells great protection. However, considering Wells turned 26 in December and enters his fourth full season in the majors, owning solid skills across-the-board and incredible long-term potential, I see no reason he won't rebound strongly in every category save possibly Runs. Wells still looks like a special player capable of earning no less than $25 annually and possibly heading towards $40 as his overall offensive abilities continue improving. Bid him towards $30 if you need an outfield anchor.
Hamstring problems cost Ibanez the six weeks prior to the All-Star Game and kept him to a .246/.297/.348 July performance; he otherwise hit .313 with an .OPS around .850. Ibanez effectively maintained his promising power potential, and although I don't consider him a particularly useful player, he should exceed $20 this year due to the quantitative improvement derived from remaining healthy and batting in a much-improved lineup.
Back problems related to arthritis, a groin pull, and knee tendonitis combined to keep Anderson under 600 at-bats for the first time since his rookie season in 1995. A .301 BA also hid a major contact rate drop that manifested in a poor .613 OPS against southpaws. Even added plate discipline can't compensate for the overall decrease in his skills, and given Anderson's age and potentially chronic injuries, he looks very risky at anything above the teens. Allowing another owner to gamble that Anderson again will approach $30 is the prudent course of action even if shifting back to left field will lessen the strain on his body.
The Tigers appear set to play Monroe regularly all year despite royally embarrassing the franchise due to his arrest for attempted shoplifting of a $30 belt. Of course, he also posted the best marks of his career after turning 27, including a .321/.369/.638 performance after the break. I don't rank Monroe's upside with some of the younger Detroit outfielders, but considering he appears guaranteed a roster spot and likely a starting job over Bobby Higginson, Monroe looks like a good buy at any price below the teens.
Weak plate discipline finally demolished his batting average, leading to career-worst averages across-the-board. Another ground-fly swing down to 1.89 G-F at least helped Jones to maintain his power, but considering how little he actually helps the Twins, I don't know why they re-signed him for another year. As Jones could post a fantasy value anywhere between $10 and $25 this summer, only bids in the low teens stand a decent chance of netting you a profit due to his declining skills.
Although groin problems led to an August DL trip and he only managed a .216/.299/.372 performance against southpaws, Bigbie also posted a .307/.362/.480 after the break. Of course, he also turned 27 in November, so even though both his 3.85 #P/PA and 2.08 G-F rank as career-best marks, we shouldn't see much more growth here. He certainly owns $20 potential and could hold an .850 OPS over a full season, but pushing bidding on Bigbie above his 2004 value leaves you very vulnerable to a loss due to his contact problems dragging down his batting average.
Career-best marks in most of his skills suggest that Stewart should echo this performance over the next couple of years. However, as foot problems severely limited him in the first half, Stewart won't steal many more bases and increasingly looks like an injury risk. A strong BA and decent power numbers now rank as his best assets, so although a full season of action should push him over $20, I can't recommend bidding far into the teens.
DaVanon again took advantage of additional playing time due to injuries, cruising to another double-digit roto value. His excellent speed skills and solid all-around numbers make him an excellent sleeper, especially if the Angels' injury-prone outfielders cede another couple hundred at-bats to him. The biggest problem is that he can't seem to hit left-handers, although that at least should result in a platoon with Juan Rivera at DH this year. Rostering DaVanon anywhere in single digits looks like a great move in most leagues.
A second straight season of improvement, highlighted by a .898 OPS after the break, positions Mench for a true breakout this summer considering he turned 27 earlier this month. Both a 3.88 #P/PA and .79 G-F provide a solid skill foundation, and only an oblique strain that led to a DL trip kept him from exceeding an .850 OPS in every month. Bidding towards $20 here isn't a bad idea given his .300/30/100 potential, comfortable lineup slot, and 81 games in the best hitters' park in the American League.
Frank Catalanotto's injury opened a starting job for Rios, who managed only a .259/.292/.373 in 185 AB for AAA Syracuse(IL) and posted a mere .716 OPS in the majors last year. While his 3.80 #P/PA and a 15/18 SB% suggest good upside, his 2.42 G-F places his long-term power potential into question. However, although Rios remains quite young and probably needed a full year at Syracuse, he also managed a respectable .348 OBP in the second half and at least possesses sufficient speed to help fantasy teams at prices up to the low teens. Also remember that he still possesses significant upside as he develops in Toronto over the next few seasons.
One of the most inconsistent position players on a monthly basis, Dye at least managed a fairly strong rebound season, only succumbing to injury when a fractured thumb limited his performance over the last few weeks of the year. He still maintained solid plate discipline and power potential, and I expect signing a two-year deal with the White Sox will result in numbers approaching his .321/33/118 career year in 2000. Thanks to the benefits of playing in the Cell, Dye should cruise towards $20 value, making him a good buy at anything under that price.
Losing his starting job to Brian Roberts didn't result in a ruined season for Hairston as he remained an offensive force for fantasy teams despite his limited playing time. A fractured right ring finger cost him all of spring training and delayed his debut until mid-May. Hairston then missed the last six weeks of the year with a broken left ankle, yet he demonstrated the best all-around skills of his career and appears prepared to emerge as an excellent leadoff man if given the opportunity with another organization. Bidding into the teens should secure his services and net you a potential $30 sleeper.
Turning 40 last August suggests Surhoff won't spent many more summers in uniform, but with good plate discipline and respectable power potential, he remains an asset in a limited role. While he'll probably miss at least another month with some ailment, I nearly can guarantee he'll approach double-digit value as a part-time player yet won't cost half his eventual value on draft day to his apparent spot on the Baltimore bench.
Kansas City promoted DeJesus early in the season, watched him compile a .164/.253/.179 performance in 67 at-bats, and then sent him back to Omaha. They recalled him in July after he registered a .315/.400/.518 line with a 21:30 BB:K in 198 AAA at-bats, and DeJesus proceeded to post a .314/.385/.453 in the second half. His 3.91 #P/PA and .86 contact rate give him a nice skill base, although a sub-50% SB success rate and 1.69 G-F limit his quantitative upside. While DeJesus could push $20 this year thanks to his supported batting average and passable power and speed skills, he still needs more development to emerge as a truly impressive player. Bidding into the high teens looks too risky here barring severe inflation.
With Alexis Rios and Vernon Wells locked into starting job, Johnson almost certainly will spend the season platooning with Frank Catalanotto. Johnson's respectable .301/.351/.439 performance against left-handed pitchers perfectly meshes with Cat's aversion to southpaws; their likely effectiveness also will allow Gabe Gross another few months of minor league seasoning. Yes, Johnson's fantasy value should fall into single digits, which befits a player who possesses little quantitative upside and only posted a .299 OBP after the break, but if he appears set for the recommended platoon, bidding a few bucks here could earn you a small profit.
Tampa surprisingly detained Cruz despite the need for starting slot for prospects like Joey Gathright, Matt Diaz, and especially Jonny Gomes. Of course, Cruz remains a gifted defensive player who owns excellent patience and intriguing power potential; only contact problems keep him from annually pushing over $20. The biggest reason to avoid him is that he almost certainly will finish this year with a different team due to his pending free agency, but if your league allows you to keep crossovers, definitely consider targeting Cruz for his quantitative upside if you can absorb the BA hit.
Foot and hip problems limited White down the stretch, but he again avoided the DL to produce another respectable stat line. Unfortunately, a lack of positive skill trends suggests an upside around $15, and his expiring contract also makes him prime mid-season trade bait. As rostering White for less than $10 should net you only a small profit, drop out of any bidding that rises into double digits.
Despite an emergency appendectomy at the end of February that limited him to 3 at-bats during camp, Williams still played nearly the entire season, scored 100 runs for the eighth time, and reached 2000 hits. Unfortunately, missing spring training resulted in an awful .194/.310/.292 April performance, and similarly poor July numbers left him with a surprisingly bad average considering his overall level of skills. Perhaps we should consider Williams a .262 hitter after averaging that mark over the last two years, but he remains a very disciplined hitter who even owns rising power potential thanks to a career-best 1.16 G-F. New York's failure to sign Carlos Beltran even leaves Williams fighting only Bubba Crosby for playing time in center, so the veteran even might rebound over $20. Consider Williams a sleeper anywhere under $15 who only will fail to earn a profit if he suffers another injury.
September knee surgery to repair Gerut's torn right ACL prematurely ended his disappointing sophomore season. Now he'll likely miss half the season, and even if the Indians deal Juan Gonzalez, the team's newly-loaded infield leaves Gerut in competition with Coco Crisp, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Ludwick, and Franklin Gutierrez for only two outfield spots next to Casey Blake, who just received a two-year commitment from the club. Of course, Gerut also owns excellent plate discipline and 20-20 upside, so at least attempt to roster him in the endgame with the intention of dealing him to a rebuilding squad that hopefully won't worry about the possibility of a trade to the other league.
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