Today's Fantasy Rx

National League First Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Robin Ventura		152	37	.243	5	28	0	19	1
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 37	B:L    T:R	0		0		-3.4		-2.5

Although Ventura never won a ring, he played in two Series and several post-seasons, posting very strong numbers in most years of his career. His retirement doesn't surprise me at all considering he compiled his worst averages since his rookie year, but his .271/.368/.458 performance as a pinch-hitter suggests he still could contribute on some clubs, even if he no longer posted any fantasy value. Ventura leaves the scene as one of the best infielders in White Sox history who never should have left Chicago.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ryan Howard		39	11	.282	2	5	0	5	1
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:L    T:L	-1		-1		1.6		1.6

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Philadelphia for my comments on Howard.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig Brazell		34	9	.265	1	3	0	3	1
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:L    T:R	-1		-2		-0.8		-0.8

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: New York(N) for my comments on Brazell.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Baerga		85	20	.235	2	11	0	6	1
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:S    T:R	-2		-2		-4.4		-4.4

Arizona limited Baerga's at-bat after observing his platoon split in 2003, but he revered the split this year, instead smacking southpaws in the 8 at-bats he saw against them while posting terrible marks against right-handers. A career-worst 3.29 G-F clearly demonstrates his negligible power potential, so even if he breaks camp in the majors after somehow snaring an NRI in the next month, Baerga won't belong on any fantasy team.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damon Minor		58	14	.241	0	6	0	8	1
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:L	-2		-2		-2.5		-2.5

With a .302/.399/.538 performance for AAA Fresno(PCL), including 17 HR, 56 RBI, and 50:78 BB:K in 338 AB, Minor belonged in the majors this year, especially after holding a .405 OBP with the Giants. Hopefully he'll take advantage of spending the season in Japan to establish his starting credentials, although I suspect he may never receive a long look as a big league regular. Regardless of his long-term potential, Minor merits no fantasy consideration in 2005.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Larry Sutton		5	1	.2	0	1	0	0	1
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:L    T:L	-2		-3		-0.4		-0.4

Sutton somehow accumulated a .373/.475/.692 line with 21 HR, 73 RBI, and a 59:61 BB:K in 308 AB for AAA Albuquerque(PCL). He looks like a stronger candidate to start than Jeff Conine right now yet saw almost no time with the Marlins last year and may not even receive a call-up anywhere this season. While his recent minor league performance suggests intriguing upside, I don't expect Sutton to find the opportunity to demonstrate his improved hitting proficiency any time soon.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alan Zinter		34	7	.206	1	6	0	2	1
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:S    T:R	-2		-3		-1.5		-1.5

After finally reaching the majors in 2002, Zinter returned to the big leagues last year with the woeful Diamondbacks, who retained him as their fourth catcher on a minor league contract. While his .335/.403/.542 performance in 179 AB for AAA Tucson(PCL) rightfully interested in Arizona, only injuries to no less than two of Chris Snyder, Koyie Hill, and Robby Hammock should result in another promotion for Zinter, who possesses no discernible fantasy value.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Rivera		15	3	.200	0	1	0	1	1
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:L	-2		-3		-1.5		-1.5

While Rivera managed a .292/.348/.516 performance with 17 HR, 50 RBI, and a 24:55 BB:K for AAA Nashville(PCL), Pittsburgh wisely kept him in the minors almost all year, instead giving Daryle Ward another chance to contribute. Landing with Houston on a minor league deal now should keep Rivera from returning to the majors, and he might not even open the year at AAA considering both Royce Huffman and Todd Self need AAA at-bats. I neither expect Rivera to reach the majors this season nor contribute to any fantasy team if injuries open an unexpected opportunity.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wil Cordero		66	13	.197	1	6	1	6	1
FLO Marlins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-5.6		-5.6

Don't be surprised to see Cordero steal playing time from Nick Johnson given Washington's increasingly bizarre roster construction. Cordero failed to break a .650 OPS in 25 at-bats against southpaws while remaining below a .500 OPS against right-handers. Yes, knee surgery cost him the majority of the season and he remains relatively young given his lengthy career, but nothing in Cordero's declining skills suggests he can contribute to a successful team. Ignore him as anything more than short-term roster filler unless he maintains strong averages over the first few months of 2005.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis Lopez		26	4	.154	0	0	0	0	1
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	-3		-3		-3.6		-3.6

Lopez again failed to hold even mildly respectable numbers in his second chance in the majors, although he at least rebounded after his departure from Montreal to post a .333/.414/.528 line with 9 HR, 51 RBI, and a 30:27 BB:K in 231 AB for AAA Richmond(IL). Signing in Japan for this year gives him a better opportunity to refine his offensive approach than anything available here given his current AAAA status, which obviously renders him useless to fantasy teams in 2005.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Colbrunn		27	3	.111	0	1	0	1	1D
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-4.2		-4.2

Wrist tendonitis kept Colbrunn under 100 at-bats for the third time in three seasons, so while I still believe he can mash left-handed pitching, you simply can't risk employing him until he again proves he can hold a respectable average. A spring training NRI with the Rangers should lead to a 25-man roster spot and even potentially a platoon job at DH, but until he starts producing helpful stats again, Colbrunn won't belong on any fantasy roster.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Shawn Wooten		53	9	.170	0	2	0	2	1
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	-4		-4		-6		-6

His .293/.370/.444 performance with a 24:29 BB:K in 225 AB for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL) demonstrates Wooten still can contribute in the right situation, and remaining with Philadelphia might result in another opportunity given the relative fragility of Mike Lieberthal and Jim Thome. My concern is that a rising round-fly rate might counteract his developing plate discipline, resulting in continued erosion of his power potential. I see no reason to invest in Wooten until he demonstrates some semblance the offensive effectiveness he displayed during his Anaheim days.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Hessman		69	9	.130	2	5	0	8	1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	-5		-5		-8.9		-8.9

Another respectable performance for AAA Richmond(IL), featuring a .287/.365/.562 line with 19 HR, 54 RBI, and a 28:65 BB:K in 265 AB, earned Hessman an extended look with Atlanta. Unfortunately, he bombed in this audition, managing merely a .130/.155/.261 line and then departing the organization after the Braves failed to tender him a contract last month. Signing with Detroit at least provides him a potential opening to find more playing time, but given their treatment of previous minor league free agents, Hessman easily could spend the year at AAA. Don't draft him in any league.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Randall Simon		192	36	.188	3	14	0	16	1
PIT/TB		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:L    T:L	-6		-5		-16.7		-17.9

least valuable NL player in roto Simon finally destructed in 2004, earning his release from two of the worst teams in baseball while finishing the season as the least valuable NL position player in roto. The irony here is that he demonstrated the best plate discipline and power potential of his career; the inability to hold even a mediocre batting average led to his departures from the Pirates and Rays. While he remains one of the riskiest players to own in the game, Simon possesses a glimmer of upside, although definitely wait to see if he begins echoing his career averages again after somehow regaining regular playing time before rostering him anywhere.

'04 First Basemen Week concludes tomorrow, featuring Minor League Free Agent and AAA/AA First basemen in the National League.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only Howard and possibly Colbrunn possess a serious chance of earning positive value next year, and I doubt Howard remains available in most standard leagues. Considering the Phillies' rookie remains clearly blocked by Thome, I don't even see much reason to target him until he joins an organization that provide him everyday at-bats, effectively keeping everyone discussed here today off your spring draft lists.