Today's Fantasy Rx

National League First Basemen with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam LaRoche		324	90	.278	13	45	0	45	1
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:L    T:L	7		7		7.9		7.9

While LaRoche lost all of June to a separated shoulder, he otherwise produced fairly strong numbers, even compiling a very quiet .302/.368/.576 performance after the break. Even though he'll continue to platoon with Julio Franco, a 3.83 #P/PA and 1.26 G-F provide LaRoche with a solid skill foundation. He easily could exceed 20 homers in 400 at-bats, and if continues developing as expected, he appears positioned for a 30/100 season as a full-time starter in 2006, making him an excellent sleeper now, especially if you can grab him anywhere in single digits in long-term keeper leagues.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Valent		270	72	.267	13	34	0	39	1O
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:L	4		5		5.1		5.1

New York snagged Valent in the minor league phase of the 2003 Rule 5 draft, and he nicely repaid the club for its faith in him, demonstrating intriguing power potential. Now he even might open this season in a starting platoon with Victor Diaz, and while I don't expect him to emerge as a particularly prolific offensive contributor, Valent could cruise to 20 homers. He won't hold a good batting average, but if you need cheap power late in the draft, his age and upside make him a better risk than Karim Garcia a year ago.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Daryle Ward		293	73	.249	15	57	0	39	1
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:L    T:L	4		5		-0.2		-2.9

A torn ligament in Ward's right thumb cost him over six weeks of action, and now he appears headed back to a reserve role if Tike Redman wins the center field job, keeping Jason Bay and Matt Lawton on the corners and pushing Craig Wilson to first base. While Ward certainly merited another starting opportunity on a power-desperate team like Pittsburgh after compiling a .277/.313/.574 performance in 94 AB for AAA Nashville(PCL) last spring, his production began dropping even before his injury. Yes, he could approach 30 homers in an everyday job, but inconsistent plate discipline leaves him vulnerable to terrible BA/OBP marks. Don't consider Ward as more than an endgame power flyer even if you can reserve him at your leisure.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nick Johnson		251	63	.251	7	33	6	35	1
MON Expos		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:L	4		4		-1.1		-1.9

Perhaps escaping the turf in Montreal will provide Johnson the ability to remain healthy for a full year. While growing contact problems concern me, he remains quite young and still owns excellent plate discipline and power potential, giving Johnson a chance to join Brad Wilkerson, Jose Vidro, and Jose Guillen to provide surprising offensive production at the top of the Nats' order. Johnson simply shouldn't struggle against right-handed pitchers this season, and with his back problems seemingly gone, only another groundball in the face or similar fluke injury should prevent from finally exceeding 400 at-bats. I rank him with the riskiest buys in the game, but Johnson remains an acceptable buy almost anywhere in the teens as long as he qualifies as no more than a tertiary source of offensive production in your infield.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hee Seop Choi		343	86	.251	15	46	1	53	1
FLO/LA		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:L    T:L	4		5		7.5		10.5

Considering the ridiculous comments Choi receives from many sportswriters, you might have missed his .370 OBP last year. Yes, he struggled terribly with the Dodgers, but with J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent deflecting attention from him this year, I see no reason that Choi, who turns 26 in March, can't finally emerge as an offensive force. Dodger Stadium ranked as a better park for left-handed batters than Wrigley or Pro Player even before Los Angeles decreased the foul ground this year, thus providing a boost for batters somewhat prone to pop-ups. Perhaps he still needs a platoon partner, however any decrease in his playing time against southpaws only should lead to a BA boost that will compensate for any reduced quantitative output. Consider any purchase of Choi in single digits a probable steal since he easily should surpass a minimum of $15, although if you see his skills slipping as summer begins, deal him by the break.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Olmedo Saenz		111	31	.279	8	22	0	17	1
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	3		2		4.3		4.3

Hee Seop Choi's likely platoon partner continued to slaughter southpaw pitching to the tune of a .338/.427/.631 performance. If kept him a strict platoon, Choi and Saenz could combine for a .280/30/100 performance, creating an intriguing opportunity for owners in leagues with daily transactions. Considering Saenz also managed a career-best 3.93 #P/PA while similarly dropping his ground-fly ratio to a .81 mark, his fourth straight season of improvement. Rostering Saenz during Dollar Days will net you a mild profit, although he offers the most upside in sim leagues where you can keep him from facing right-handed pitchers even if Jim Tracy occasionally won't employ the similar strategy against all logic.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Richie Sexson		90	21	.233	9	23	0	20	1
ARI Diamondbacks		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	1		1		4.3		4.3

Dislocating his shoulder in May cost Sexson nearly the entire season and destroyed the return received by the Diamondbacks in their trade with the Brewers. Only signing Troy Glaus mitigated Sexson's off-season departure to Seattle, which affords him a much worse hitting environment than Arizona or Milwaukee offered. Yes, Ichiro, Jeremy Reed, Adrian Beltre, Bret Boone, and Raul Ibanez will provide Sexson with the best surrounding lineup since his Indians' days, but expecting Sexson to improve to any great extent on his .279/29/102 performance from 2002 seems somewhat foolish. We don't know if his formerly excellent power potential will return, so you likely should let someone else plow past the high-teens, where all save the biggest gambling owners should stop bidding.

'04 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: LaRoche, Johnson, Choi, and even possibly Valent should surge into double-digit value this season. Managing to roster any of the top trio for less than $10 almost guarantees you a nice profit, especially if you can slot them as your cornerman while dropping $30-40 on Pujols, Helton, Casey, or Derrek Lee.